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EXCLUSIVE: Robin Young, CEO, Amur Minerals #AMC talks long-term strategy


Parkmead Share Chat (PMG)



Share Price: 78.00Bid: 77.20Ask: 81.00Change: 5.10 (+7.00%)Riser - Parkmead
Spread: 3.80Spread as %: 4.92%Open: 73.60High: 82.00Low: 73.60Yesterday’s Close: 72.90


Share Discussion for Parkmead


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ZENGAS
Posts: 333
Answer
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:59.40
RE: investment case
15 May '18
Very far from optimistic.

I've only valued the 2P not the 2C in that post and it all relates to 2P. The Ithaca acquisition was early in 2017 at lower o/g prices and was reported as being on the low side.

If you apply similar to HNLs 12 mmboe 2P you may get a figure of around $180m (£130m). Whether the market applies that right away is another thing when they come back and I've not looked into what debt they have or may need (if any) ? The prices shown were acquisition prices and were trading at a discount to that before a bid came in.

Cashcard posted another eg this am over on the i3e bb on A D VFN

"IGAS 2,300boepd. 13.6mln 2P reserves. Marketcap > £100mln+ (based on shale potential)."
 
Bluedays
Posts: 467
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:59.80
Sp
15 May '18
Such a strong steady rise lately. Been so overlooked and under valued too long now.
Olderandwiser
Posts: 7,778
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:60.00
RE: investment case
15 May '18
GW,

Are you suggesting that Zengas's valuation parameters represent in some sense, peak of cycle valuation metrics or hyped up takeover levels rather than what is easily achievable in the industry on reasonable projections?
ghostwriter
Posts: 3,174
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:59.00
RE: investment case
15 May '18
Interesting post Zengas.

I follow PMG as a comparable to another company I am invested in; HNL. They are due to come back to market after their acquisition of TLW's Dutch offshore shallow gas assets. I know they also view PMG as a peer for comparison, so this not a totally off-topic post.

Based on 2016 levels reported by TLW, they produced 2900boepd net and their CPR as of 1/1/2017 reports 2P of 12mmboe and 2C of 20mmboe. Going by your metrics, this puts their potential valuation upwards of $300m, on a pure asset basis (ignoring debt/contingency payments), which surely is far too optimistic.

What am I missing or viewing incorrectly in your calculations?
itsaduster
Posts: 8,534
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:59.00
Tight posting
15 May '18
Thx Zengas
doyle172
Posts: 358
Off Topic
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:59.00
Looking STRONG
15 May '18
Looks good to hold this time. I cant see a dip coming for a while. Up to the 80s pre tie back news
Olderandwiser
Posts: 7,778
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:57.80
RE: investment case
15 May '18
Many thanks Zengas.
ZENGAS
Posts: 333
Answer
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:57.70
RE: investment case
15 May '18
Older - the comparative is in that post and includes the November 2017 i3e North Sea presentation (page 7) that I provided. Also includes the 2017 Verus and Delek buy out of Wytch farm and Ithaca buy out (Some i3e people were at Ithaca).

Ithaca $16.59 per 2P boe and $61,902/flowing boe.
Wytch $18.46 per 2P boe and $55,000/flowing boe.

$1.24b (incl debt) 2017 takeover of Ithaca considered on the low side.

https://www.ft.com/content/03552256-ec50-11e6-930f-061b01e23655

A £400m ($560m) similar deal using a lesser $15/boe would imply needing 37m boe 2P. On a flowing basis using $55k per boe implies production of 10,200 boe/day.

PMG currently has 46.3 mmboe 2P and a further 73.9 mmboe 2C giving a potential 2P reserve target of 120 mmboe compared to 37 mmboe 2P for the above valuation target which is under one third of their overall current 2P/2C. Plenty of room to farm out/additional upside and allowing any debt needs.

£4 conservative target on that basis. Ithacas takeover was also considered cheap in earlier 2017.
Olderandwiser
Posts: 7,778
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:57.70
RE: investment case
15 May '18
Zengas,

Can you demonstrate where the £4 sp target based on comparatives comes from please? Seems a stretch. ATB.
Sonofthebull
Posts: 1,018
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:57.70
RE: Next week BIG week
14 May '18
£5 in three years time get on this train before it leaves the station.....Oil in place ,Deirdre assisting all companies to extract as much oil as is possible and tie it into the nearest infrastructure.....




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