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>>>If you can't trust a word the CEO says then it doesnt give you much confidence in him delivering.
BR was more or less on track until the economic fall out from Covid and global recession hit.
Think where the price of copper particularly, could be now if it were not for the crash. The reasons that many consider as to why the share price trajectory has been on a downward spiral to where it sits now, has seriously been amplified by the economic climate.
''We know we have the grades and I'm not worried about the grades....This wont be a death my a thousand lashes (re sale)...Looking to make a sale in a few months...If they offer me 10p I'll tell em they can stick it....We were biting our nails re 2mt but now with Ascot find we dont have to.....This is a tier 1 asset''
I'm wondering if Mr Colin Bird was talking about his favourite racehorse all along?
For me its not so much criticism of CB's exploration strategy, but the BS he came out with re Bushranger. and now lack of trust in what he says
Remember what he said re Bushranger:
We know we have the grades and I'm not worried about the grades
This wont be a death my a thousand lashes (re sale)
Looking to make a sale in a few months
If they offer me 10p I'll tell em they can stick it
We were biting our nails re 2mt but now with Ascot find we dont have to.
This is a tier 1 asset
etc
Many didnt sell at 6p as CB had given all of us great confidence that it was going much higher after the imminent sale.
If you can't trust a word the CEO says then it doesnt give you much confidence in him delivering.
That doesnt mean to say he wont deliver though
Just a reminder of the “desk work” CB is so fond of that we shareholders funded re Manica.
Probably worth noting that gold price is also up circa $800/oz since this project was mapped out with little signs of slowing down which arguably increases the potential for profit somewhat.
DFS Key parameters
• Extraction Method – Conventional Open Pit
• Life of Mine – 7 years
• Total Ore Tonnes Processed – 3.3 Mt (42 ktmp)
• Total Ounces Produced – 215 koz ( ̴ 31 kozpm)
• Recovered Grade – 2.62 g/t
• Gold Price – US$1,262 per oz Project Payback – 2 years
• IRR – 41.1 %
• NPV – US$42 million (@8.4% discount rate)
• Capex Expenditure – US$43.68 million
• Direct Cash Cost – US$556/oz
• All inclusive sustainable cost (breakeven) – US$862/oz
Now does $15m in staged payments seem like a good deal for that instead of our 23% considering how little of the resource has been depleted thus far? (even if we have to fund our share of phase 2 etc)
I stand by my previous statements, the proposed sale of Manica is not good value for XTR shareholders.
Towards balance, I do think there is reasonable merit in that cyberarchias post, in fairness.. and I had no hesitation in ticking it up.. and 13 tick ups and counting for that post doesn't even surprise me.
I'll also add that if this s/p doesn't meaningfully turn around into the future, I'll see it as predominately my own fault... as it was me that placed the BET(s) here.. and in undertaking hard core gambling you understand you can of course lose plenty or even all your betting pot.... That said this can of course come good again too.. here's hoping!
What difficult circumstances are they then OSV ?
Colin said it was a great deal and Zambia was a great opportunity.
What's your take on the many other comments OSV, the negative ones I mean ?
Cyberiachas. excellent post showing a good understanding of how in very difficult circumstances the company is well positioned to deliver for shareholders.
Xtr is an exploration company, it was when people invested in bushranger . The only way we get back to 4p plus (which I know a lot of current shareholders sit at minimum) is by exploring and finding something big.
Nw Zambia is where it is right now and Colin is very well connected . There is a window that won’t be open for ever - let’s see another license or two up there. It’s better to focus management time on that than haggling with mmp in Mozambique.
The deal gets my vote - let’s get busy finding a very big lump of copper. Well done to Colin getting the mine built and getting $16m plus cash out of it, a few years ago we were scrabbling to keep the lights on with a couple of hundred grand from the alluviales. Onwards and upwards.
I was fine with this podcast. Just not sure why Colin was saying how much XTR was undervalued following the last Manica production statement podcast. Aim needs to attract new investors so a solid consistent message would be helpful.
Pi's control much less than 50% of total holding
It is certain to be approved
Voting against the EGM motion should be seen as 'be careful what you wish for'. It may not be a great deal but imagine what risk shareholders will be taking if they send CB back to the negotiating table or choose to rely on whatever 23% nett means for a project over which the Board has almost no control. The main shareholder and operator can simply appoint whoever they wish do, spend whatever they want to and WE finish -up paying ( in the end).
Yes, CB should never have done the deal this way. Why did he not act as per Empress and take a slice at the top-end - from production ? I don't know the answer but I shiver at the prospect of a No Vote and the consequences therefrom.
Personally I have undergone a re-think and will back CB for this last time. He knows NW Zambia like his own back yard and everyone but everyone is hitting stakes in the ground. It ain't moose pasture though. Copper to the surface !!
My two pennyworth on the subject of the Manica sale is that everybody should remeber that if shareholders vote against the sale of Manica then they are in effect voting for 'jam tomorrow'. I say that on the basis that we will have to re-invest income from Manica to pay our part of the further devolpment of the mine pushing back the time when we wil be able to make a profit. As I have said before though, I still feel the price is a tad low-ball and maybe CB should have held out for more.
Agreed Andrew .. but CB is still a great story teller imho .. he just needs a new batch of dreamers to buy into the current story .. the old batch have lived the real world journey .. and many think fairy tales now.. ..
That said it’s still about PoC rally …and a good tenement …in an flavour/favour jurisdiction ..etc ..
We have a new bet in play .. nobody knows how it will pan out, in truth .. here’s hoping
"The agreement xtr. entered into with MMP was perhaps sieve like"
No perhaps about it IMHO. I guess CB now realises that he did not make it water tight so MMP can manipulate "costs" in many ways and are doing so !
$1000+ AISC?? Hmm. Really?
This is on CB and he probably now thinks better to not fight a losing battle, take the easy option and leave it.
That added to the fact his time horizon is now very near due to his age, makes sense for him to sell up and go for a cash grab with no hassle.
Last throw of the dice on Zambia and see if he gets lucky.
(PS In the old days that pod cast would have seen the sp rise. Not now. CB has now lost his magic BS powers ! He now has to deliver actual results for the sp to rise. !)
I can't help feeling that i'm listening to financial promotion/ justification all over again. Is this Bushranger Africa reincarnated. Colin has started mentioning world class, 3 million tons, great team, best world location, world class surrounding mines etc etc. All sounds like a recording from Bushranger location. The only thing not out yet is cigar, onions cucumbers. I'm sure this will follow soon. The whole podcast is like a promotional interview. Am 69% down on my hard earned money. Forgive me for my caution. Think i might stay on the fence at the moment.
Well said JDAU, it's what I've been trying to say for few days now.
I think you hit the nail on the head when you said it's "too much like hard work" policing production at Manica so he'd rather sell it. I personally think we are giving it away at $15m, especially on a three year drip feed. I'll repeat what I said yesterday, we need more money for it and NOW not later.
$25m would be a minimum for me, after all, it's CB himself who bangs on about a commodity bull market being imminent .
The agreement xtr.l entered into with MMP was perhaps sieve like and so a difficult starting point for a smooth long term revenue sharing relationship, especially for a mining operation whose complexity will grow over time, I'll guess, JDAU.. and hence walking away with this deal with these terms, towards brushing/shovelling another potential ongoingly 'complicated' relationship under the carpet, is somewhat understandable to me.
(That poor carpet has seen a lot of cr+p brushed/ shovelled under it over the years....and we shareholders were probably 'sheltered' away from half that cr+p or more!)
The skills within xtr.l may well be focused -aka limited to - on metals exploring, I'll go with... and hence keep it simple is the best way to go here.. and we're about to be back in that ball park now.. so ok by me .. and here's hoping that CB gets lucky in his hard core gambling this time around.
I need to be clear if you’re reading this Colin, I can’t speak for everyone but myself (and any other shareholders who’d include themselves) got sold the dream of Manica one day being an operating mine in what, 2015?
It’s a gold mine we LTH’s have backed you with since day dot, I (and many others) sat through multiple placings, dilutive finance, supported the DFS, realistically spent years with the threat of losing all I’d(/we’d) invested to back this venture through to production.
It’s now in production, looking (to me anyway) like it’s moving wholeheartedly in the right direction re costs, production profile etc and now you’re asking us to sell it to “guarantee income” so we can go and explore somewhere else (which as per my previous - doesn’t sound bad) - in the hope of a sale down the line.
Well sorry, but for me, the buck stops here.
I no longer care about what prospective assets could/ifs/maybes will do in the future, probably.
I want cold, hard, cash in the bank and personally I’d rather we pivoted fully into financing and concentrating on gold production at Manica, with BR in the back pocket and trickling spare cash into Zambia exploration whilst putting the bulk back into our producing asset- that is what I would like to see.
You’ve already stated in the podcast that if other licence owners make a find near us in Zambia our ground becomes a need to have so we don’t NEED to be the first to make a find - you’ve also confirmed we already have the circa $2m needed for committed costs. On top of that we’re going to continue banking cash from the mmp 23% profit share agreement.
I see no reason to dispose of the Manica asset as “it’s hard work” or “it might cost us money” aren’t good enough reasons for me to now bail on a project I’ve been a part of through thick and thin, especially when all the info I’m seeing re production backs up my view that Manica is in fact a good project.
For the record, I want to openly thank you for all the hard work you’ve put into the company over the years and to honest, I’m under no illusion that without the one and only CB XTR probably wouldn’t exist anymore, however, I do not agree that selling our producing asset is the way forward and you’re still yet to convince me.
Interesting podcast, but to be honest, I have no bone to pick about how prospective the Zambian assets have the potential to be, that was never the issue.
Whilst intriguing, at this point - when trying to decide on the validity of the sale of Manica - I didn’t need circa half an hours worth of info convincing me about the geology of the area in Zambia and so I guess all I really have to say on that is “thanks for a good lot of information and sure, it sounds like an exciting area to develop”.
My issue - which is yet goes unanswered - is why does that make a sale of Manica necessary.
Ref: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/proposed-disposal-of-manica-gold-project-6q16ennwdb3xhx4.html
Appendix, section 3, table 1 clearly shows us that from Q1/2—> Q3 there have been reduced costs, better recovery, more gold produced and a stable, decent sales price. Table 2 further cements the increase in production trend with an increase in gold poured.
Appendix, section 3 also reiterates what we already know about the resource:
“Open pit resource of 13.95Mt at 1.76g/t Au for 789Koz Au and an underground resource of 5.66Mt at 2.6g/t Au for 473Koz Au.”
We also know “the plant was commissioned and produced its first gold during July 2022.”
Table 1 confirms that Q1/2/3 production of 2023: 361,422 T ore mined and processed for 18,489oz produced.
There is a huge disparity between what has been mined & processed (that we’ve benefitted fiscally from) and what the total resource has to offer, I’ve spent years studying the project and I know this without a doubt.
Colin talks in the interview about the mine getting deeper, costs changing, further capital required, difficulty in monthly discussions about costs / how much is owed to XTR etc, and whilst I understand that this may create a bit of a headache at times when not the sole operator - guess what - XTR are running a gold mine!
I was thinking the same, as he says he reads these boards yet he doesn't feel the need to do any PR or deign to speak to the Shareholders until he needs their blessing to do what he wants with their money.
Anyone notice he called the Zambia gig an "adventure" then corrected himself. Freudian slip there Colin.
You really do see us as stupid don't you OldSchoolCol ?
He may well be right and doing the right thing with Manica , after all he BS'd us on that too for a long time so even that might not be as good as he once said. The SP shows us that.
I don't think this is the last we'll hear from him before the meeting, he's got three years salary riding on it.
Over to you Mr Bird.
So when CB needs to ramp (sorry promote virtues) he can.
Shame last 14 months he couldn’t find the words.
Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvJD9yMjBf8&ab_channel=TheSundayRoast
Any chance of a link lucky…?