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I know everybody is predicting armageddon for shire shares if this takeda takeover does not happen but i disagree. The fact that shire sold part of the business for �1.7m which only accounted for 2% of the turnover shows how valuable shire really is and given the fact that takeda offered �62B and if rejected surely anybody holding shares will want to keep hold of them in case ormskov and co can line up even bigger bidders in the future or even sell parts for huge sums like they did for oncology. I am keeping mine if this takeover fails i�m starting to feel a lot better about shire.
Rumours are that there was a Board Meeting over the weekend. But there are no rumours, as yet, as to the outcome of that meeting.
You need to get your tin hat out mate, this will be all over the place until the dust settles. Unless you have a very clear target price the best option is usually to hold. The bigger picture here is that rare disease specs have been targeted for acquisition this year, their drugs are less at risk of price pressures, Shire is the daddy of rare diseases.
Trading at almost no change today. Hard to belive its subject of takeover. Wont surprise me if it turns red.
I guess the next thing we will hear will be a formal offer on Wednesday. Either way it seems the best option is told hold, even if the current deal falls through, it is almost inevitable that there will be a deal for Shire at some point this year.
If they do accept, their formal statement will make very interesting reading as their last rejection statement (made less than a week) ago said that an offer of c�44bn significantly undervalued the company and its growth prospects. Their statement on Friday said that Takeda�s new offer was still approximately �44bn (actually about �500m higher). ATB, Scfc
If Shire do accept, I wonder whether they will issue a statement or simply confirm this privately to Takeda so that they can issue a formal bid. As publicly not rejecting the latest appoach is not the same as Takeda actually issuing a formal bid.
I agree with you Scfc. But man i should have bought hikma at �8.xx which has recovered without any rumours to �12.xx. Its up another 3.5% today. I didnt/couldn't buy it as i was knee deep in $hite/shire
Good question and not one I can answer. But lack of leadership and direction, poor communication, all contribute to a poor SP compared to some peers. Maybe the fall will not be as steep as a re-rating may be due off the back of the approach but FO has a lot to answer for. He could organise a **** up in a brewery.
If rejected I don�t think it will fall as low as mamy may think, initially an inevitable overreaction of course (and many PIs will panic sell causing a big fall) but I would expect it to settle higher than low �30s.
I agree with you in the main. But my issue goes beyond takeover. All pharma stocks have had nasty decline till a couple of months ago. Now most have recovered a bit and some have recovered to the tune of 50% <--- hikma. Shire has recovered only because of takeover approach and if its rejected it will decend back to where majority of the pharma stocks were two months ago. So why is this stock being treated as junk when there is a company willing to pay fair value of �47 a share for it.
Pretty low trading volumes so far today, esp. relative to previous speculation days that is - just over 1/2m so far. Market and all keeping their powder dry. Plenty of opinions out there but only one that actually matters! ATB, Scfc
But a rejected bid is the same as no bid as Takeda will not go hostile. Hence the markets are still very uncertain as to which way this will go. A rejected bid (remember they rejected the previous 3 approaches as FO stated these hugely undervalued the company) would send the SP down to low 30s. An acceptance from Shire leading to a bid of circa �47 will boost the SP up to �43-44 imho. So a bit 50:50 at the mo. FO probably wants to reject but major shareholders will be putting a lot of pressure on him to get a deal done. Nobody wants an SP dropping back to low 30s. FO will be booted out if that happens. Flip a coin, heads is �44, tails is �33. Good luck.
Not moving much today. I used to think that best gains in share price happen when a company is subjected to merger/takeover. But shire has proven it wrong. Would have been better off in hikma. It has gone from �8 to �12 (50% gain) in the last few weeks. Shire on the other hand, has gone from �30 to 38. A gain 30% despite being approached for takeover at �47 a piece - still trading at a massive discount of at least 20%. Incredible!!! :-/
Not moving much today. I used to think that best gains in share price happen when a company is subjected to merger/takeover. But shire has proven it wrong. Would have been better off in hikma. It has gone from �8 to �12 (50% gain) in the last few weeks. Shire on the other hand, has gone from �30 to 38. A gain 30% despite being approached for takeover at �47 a piece - still trading at a massive discount of at least 20%. Incredible!!! :-/
thx Scfc
Q1 results are this Thursday. ATB, Scfc
Does anyone know when shire will give quarterly results pls?
Good luck. If there is an announcement today it will move 10% in one of two directions depending on the content of the announcement. Having said that, I expect the only announcement today to say that both parties have agreed an extension with the Takeover panel. But no immediate rejection of the �47 'bid' is a good sign in my view. I will happily take �21 in cash and the rest in Takeda Paper given thsi was floating in low 30s pre Takeda interest.
For a short term risky play. Looking for 10% then I’ll be out. Thought my day trading days were long since over!
Did you buy them through a broker? I bought mine using hargreaves and lansdown and they hold my shares in my account.
i never got the new shares issued a few years ago .getting divis ect but no certificate. emailed shire to no avail, anybody got any advice?
As financial engineering goes mountain man topped shp�s Bod.back to my saying ; if u and I can find someone crazy enough to lend us money we could grow business by acquisition like this megalomaniacs. Shp bod did everything right thas far, refused 1,2,3 offer and is in continuous talks with Tak. They know this is their last free lunch, regardless what happens from here they are gone, so might as well take a bit of a golden goodbyes. Maintain man can�t backdown now, sadly I have no instrumentals available to shortTak,( down over 6% yesterday and shp adr up 2.2%). Markets is betting on a deal being done, our �26 paper might go below �21 cash, so imo sp over my tp �42.5 would be fantastic but I�m not likely to wait for it. I might take long short on shp then just in case whiles come off cos both bods and shareholders have to approve it. If by any miracle another megalomaniac enters d game I hope it would be one I have instruments to short. Of course I could be wrong
Not able to understand if the offer is for 47 and split by - 21 in cash and 26 in Equity. Why the price is stuck under 39. Does someone help me understand.
Takeda market cap $35Bn Shire market cap $49Bn This (reverse) takeover makes no sense and will saddle Takeda with huge debt. notgreedy what do you make of this?