Max Petroleum Plc, an oil and gas exploration and production company focused on Kazakhstan, is pleased to announce that it has commenced drilling the ZMA-E6 development well in the Zhana Makat Field on Block E using Zhanros Drilling's ZJ-20 rig. Total vertical depth of the well will be approximately 900 metres targeting Jurassic reservoirs.
"To work through my earlier guesstimates for potential reserves, here's what I can pull out from Max's presentations etc.
ZM: 4.52m 2P as of March 31st 2012 so probably around 3.7m as of now. ASK: I think the OiP number was around 8m with 35%-40% RF, so 2.8m to 3.2m KZIE: 500k booked reserves but currently not flowing due to water ingress. Let's discount this to 0 for now SW: This has about 80m contingent resources. 20% of that is 16m barrels, 30% is 24m Uytas conventional: RS gave 27m contingent resources, Max gave 58m. 20% of the lower number gives 5.4m to 30% of the higher number gives 17.4m Uytas non-conventional: Max's own numbers give an OiP figure of 126m barrels. Worst case we get nothing from it. Best case, say 30%. So anywhere from 0m to 37.8m Borky: A very slow drip of 0.45m BW: Estimated OiP of 16m barrels. 20% gives 3.2m 30% gives 4.8m EN: This originally had a 9m pmean recoverable, let's say 6m worst case, 12m best case Uytas North: on a risked basis this would be around 4m Karasai South: on a risked basis this would be around 4m
Best case ZM(3.7) ASK(3.2) KZIE(0) SW(24) UC(17.4) UU(37.8) Borky(0.45) BW(4.8) EN(12) Totalling 103.35m or 65.55m if you don't feel comfortable assigning anything to Uytas unconventional
Neither of those totals include the 8m of risked resources from Uytas North and Karasai South (23m between them if they both strike with their pmean).
So without Uytas unconventional 37.5m to 65.5m seems reasonable. With it, it's possible we could hit 100m barrels in the shallows. Taking 10m barrels of production for between here and November 2017 and using the same calcs as earlier 9p would be a reasonable floor and 38p would be the top end without Uytas unconventional. Adding in Uytas unconventional at $10/bbl (it will be more expensive to get out but eventually it could be worth that) adds an extra 12p to the share price.
Using ZJ-20: ZMA-E6 from 6-16 May(TD) UYTAS NORTH from 25 May-10 June(TD) (11 mmbo)
Using ZJ-30: BCHW-2 from 1-20 May (TD) 1400 m (with additional Jurassic targets) SAGW-4 from 1 June to 20 June VERY important drill as Drainboy already indicated (79.8 mbo contingent reserves)
New rig to be confirmed to drill: 13 well (27,2 mmbo potential) from 200-550 m each starting this month
Other important drills ESKN-2 with a few Triassic pay zones for Q3/Q4 2013 ESKN-3 2014
No comments about NUR-1
Production: 2200 bopd from Zhana Makat and soon coming 2000 bopd from Asanketken...that will give us $5.2 millions a month? just with a permanent production of 4200 bopd
we can easily reach our 6500 goal by year end...comments? ZMA-A22 could give as very good results...
Questions: In regards ZMA-A22 development well in the Zhana Makat Field that has successfully reached a total depth of 1,363 metres, encountering hydrocarbons in Jurassic and Triassic sandstone reservoirs in line with expectations what do you think could be the bopd? ZMA-ET1 flows at 650 bopd from the Triassic sandstones only and reached 1200 bopd…ZM-ET2 flows at 450 bopd….so that could be a really good well?
NPV Zhana maket has a NPV of $164M based in a 19.18 $/b with 8.6 MBO(a bit less now) Imagine how relevant could be the SAGW-4 result with TD is expected for 20th of June and contingent reserves of 79.8 MBO in place. Very significant could be Uytas 27, 2 MBO and Baichonas West 10 MBO (that already flowed at 450 bopd)…. Drinboy can elaborate more in our potential NPV I think he uses an average of 10$/b but Zhana maket is valued at 19.16$/b according to Merchant Securities.
I am very excited about our next drills…and our Market Cap should react if we successfully drill the next appraisal wells....
sorry to hear about your business problems , these politicians are after every honest penny to bail out our bankrupt country. I've got a job to know who to vote for now , don't trust any of 'em. Let's hope this one does better for you ( and us!) this time round and makes you some cash back.GL
Like reading your posts,had to sell all my shares.but am back in here.and am taking the low price to get back to where I was before nearly bankrupted by business rates,but sold building so can now move on.kept some serica shares but they have taken big hit,why there has been no reaction upwards on max,any way will buy some more in next weeks,good luck to those invested here,even dilution shouldn't have had this effect,but think it's going to be a long ride
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