The reason I listen to his posts is that he knows alot more than me and by the sounds of it even more than you. I wouldn't know where to start with all the number crunching. I'm not advocating listening to any ramper but I've been on this board for 2 years so u get a feel if someone is genuine. I have learnt never to average down and always have a stop loss...... Tighter than %
Jester, I was heavily invested in Max as I took their estimates of oil in place and estimated recoverables in the shallows as being reasonable and conservative, not hopeful and, in the end, massively misleading. Uytas went from over 100mmbls OIP (186mm IIRC) to low double figures, which might be too expensive to get out the ground at all. Sagiz West ended up being more complex and lower permeability and porosity than originally estimated and talk of 10k bopd from that site and double figures reserves have evaporated as well. No field has come anywhere close to their original estimates, resulting in the long term value of the company disappearing, as reflected in the share price. If they'd been slightly conservative or accurate in their reserve predictions, many such as myself would have seen this for what it was, a much riskier "investment" than was made out in the presentations.
Regarding oil price averages. $72 might be the average they receive for each barrel, between domestic and export sales, but after costs of production and various taxes are taken into account, the figures of $25 and $40 per barrel domestic / export are accurate and contained in their last presentation (not the current one, which doesn't mention netback at all). I suggest you go read it form their website and keep yourself informed. I'm not here to knock the stock for no reason, just highlight the facts so people can make informed choices. Whilst I have all this information in my head from 5 years of foolish investment here, I may as well put it to some good use. It sure has cost me a lot, so best to amortize it over time.
However, if the company manage to continue drilling slowly, so they can afford it, they could well increase production and reserves (or at least keep them steady as they continue to produce) and become worth more than the shareprice today. 2-3p would be a significant increase from the current position and a worthwhile gain, if a risky way of getting there. Talk of 8p should be taken as ridiculous unless a miracle happens and if your investment strategy relies on miracles, you should really invest somewhere else.
Don't need to listen to anybodies post if I'm wrong with my investment so be it, ill move on. To me if mxp get bought out for say $150 mill I'd be on to a winner fingers crossed. By the way should of gone into solg you would definitely be on to a winner there. With regards mxp its what you bought at thats more important than what you sold at.
Not too worried about hawk mate as the fundamentals are pretty good..... They have cash do do some drilling which helps when exploring for oil! I sold on the 30th when the interims came out and got out at 3.59. Max has tanked 70% since then so you do the math. Db is the most informed poster on max and u have not listened to his post at all. All of his figures have been conservative and max still haven't lived up to expectattions. Time to smell the coffee. Gl
DB u just can't help some people...... And yes jester the 8million barrels is all they get for all that drilling...... A joke isn't it! As dB just quite rightly pointed out this company won't be able to service its debt and in my opinion will go under. And what the bod will say is that oil exploration is inherently risky which it is , hence don't put your eggs in one basket etc.
You use to be one of mxps biggest advocates now your just has bad as the biggest knockers on this forum why the change. So what the interims were not as good as everyone was expecting but do you seriously believe that all max has to show for all that drilling is 9 million barrels of oil. This will turn around big style. There is allegedly 10 million at sagiz alone recoverable. Also domestic and exported =$72 average not 65 doesn't matter how its worked out average is $72.
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