saw a report on bloomberg yesterday that noted a gap opening up in the US between large cap very liquid stocks and the small caps. The reasonings been investors are preparing for the possibility of needing a quick exit if this bull run comes to a sudden end. Its easier to dump very liquid stocks in case of an emergency. Might explain why the adr has stalled.
Property prices are likely to accelerate from now untill Dec 31st. Stamp duty insensitives ending for investors and traditional factors should see to that. Its very likely the difference from peak will be below 40% by year end giving management plenty of options. Next year I think the pace of property price growth will slow considerable. Less investors and an upping of supply will calm the market. It would make sence for boi to keep some of the write backs in reserve for future years.
No John I don't have an accurate estimate. However if we take your numbers as our best estimate then e3.6bn of the 8bn provision is property value based assuming a straight line relationship (which is probably wrong). But gives a ballpark figure i guess. Definitely think Bkir will go to 52% at a minimum, my guess 51% leaving a double digit difference. So e800 million FY PBT looks in the bag.
When AIB anounced their H1 results on july 30th Davys estimated that if Boi copied them and used 52% instead of 55% in their results it would add approximately €200mm to their profits. The figure they mentioned may have been a bit more than 200 even. If anyone here is a davy client it may still be possible to go back to that report and get their estimate figure. From their I'm just assuming every 3% is worth 200mm plus to bkir. Have you an estimate senator? Mine is not writen in stone and was it 400million Aib wrote back for their 3%?
The 41% off peak price is the important number. If anyone has exact figures feel free to update. Bkir used a 55% of peak numder in their H1 2014 report. For every 3% they lower that figure they will right back a minimum of €200million. If they go all the way( which they won't) to 41% that's around 1 billion of a potential write back. For a company valued at just under 10 billion that's 10% of its value available to place back on its balance sheet.
I am more troubled by the inconvenience factor of having to phone in my orders than anything else. And the idea that I pay more for a trade than other people do irks me even if it is only an extra £22 for the transaction. For the fees I pay I don't benefit from any additional information. In fact I get more information for free from this site than from anywhere else including the newspapers. I have a computer and I have a broadband connection even when I am about so it seems that I need to cut out the middle man. I bought a large tranche of shares, the majority of my holding in the mid 30c's so I do intend to hold them at least until they break through 41c. I think BKIR will do this and I have just bought a few more shares yesterday to hopefully get a better average return. I didn't have the time or wisdom to buy in back in August so I am kicking myself slightly for that, but at least as you say the ups and downs average out on a long journey so I should do o.k. in the long term.
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