George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.
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Given that the 30 days are up, we now know they are not just working days, so Italy have until the end of this week to respond to Rockhopper’s proposal.
I suspect we should therefore have a decision from the committee by the end of the month at the latest, and Rockhopper will presumably update the market on what they intend to do next at that stage.
I suspect they will want to get the enforcement wheels in motion at the very least, as I’m sure it’s not a swift process. They must be working now on identifying assets in various jurisdictions - the RNS alludes to the fact that it might have to be “multiple legal jurisdictions”.
"Rockhopper had a non-binding offer in place to fund both fighting the annulment and enforcing the Award. The Group has instead chosen to use existing resources to fund all legal costs arising from contesting the request by Italy for annulment whilst it explores all acceptable funding possibilities."
I am sure there will be a far better offer on the table, after the anulment of the award is not granted to Italy. Then it is only enforcing the award that counts.
Furthermore I don't think we have to seize all the assets in all the jurisdictions at once. We could start with an asset that is not too expensive to seize and use the money to seize some more.
We are now in the driver seat and can dictate how to mitigate the risk of non-recoupment, since Italy has refused to comply with the Panels instructions. I am looking forward to the reaction of the Committee on Italies blunt refusal :-)
Yeast
Yes me too just sold 10k to buy the warrants
Doesn’t seem like anyone is too bothered about Starmers bonkers comments so I’ll relax on that too and enjoy the results instead!!
Me too, I will be exercising mine too on the back of today's comments.
Biggest bit of positive news I got from today was the FI tax liability write down. Massive benefit to RKH, all be it not very relevant till first oil but is worth circa 7p to the share price alone.
Not sure if this now makes us more susceptible to a takeover bid, but I'm not sure anyone would be upset at a predator or two bidding up the share price.
I expect another funding mechanism will be entered into to recover assets from the Italians and as long as both the FID and annulment proceedings are completed by end q2 2024 then there won't be a need for further dilution.
BB3 - just a matter of time before this pops through 15p and heads up into the 20's and beyond.
Should RKH enforce , another thing to consider (for ROI) is that the assets seized would also cost them money e.g seizing assets that generate revenue in themselves, that revenue would also be lost and add to the cost of the ward indirectly.
Paul,
Good point re kicking the enforcement can down the road, cost would not be incurred till then , though the threat to ROI of enforcement is there all that time.
It's also possible that the annulment legal costs could be awarded against ROI when the final decision is made ,if the panel deem the legal action had no merit and that it was not bought in good faith, depending on their reason for bringing it, e.g Jurisdiction , which has been settled by the previous panel as not applicable to this arbitration.
ROI's game has been to drag this out for as long as possible, so RKH need to make a decision as to wether to enforce or not, that offcourse is dependent on lifting the stay.
Should RKH want to pressure ROI then go ahead and enforce but at a legal cost to carry out the action, should enough warrant holders exercise, then that cost would be mitigated with the funds from warrants. Importantly it can avoid dilution for all in case further funds are raised.
A positive announcement on Sealion or the lifting of the stay should give holders confidence going forward to do so.
As it happens I exercised my warrants last week. Worst case is you sell immediately and make a profit. I have decided to hold on to mine.
In terms of costs and warrants, I wonder if Rockhopper might choose to delay the enforcement procedure until after year end (when the warrants need to be exercised by)? Or at least the most costly part which will probably be court fees etc - it might actually take a while to get to that stage anyway.
It would be beneficial for the company and most shareholders if the warrants were exercised now, so I shall do my bit and exercise mine!
Whilst I appreciate that the decision on the stay is unrelated to the merits of Italy’s annulment case, it surely can’t do them any favours ignoring the committee at this stage.
Let’s see what the committee decide to do, but Italy will struggle to oppose Rockhopper’s proposal if they’ve refused to cooperate in the first place. I would anticipate a lifting of the stay in due course, perhaps with some conditions attached depending on what Rockhopper have suggested.
At least it gives a head start on enforcement if that’s the case.
The annulment brought by Italy seems to have caused a strain in the finances after the next 12 months, where further funding MAY be required at some stage . Seems ROI's non action and the boards decision to fund annulment legal costs leave RKH ok financially for at least 2Q's before funding could be raised.
They seem to be "stressing " in the results that the $5m warrants are still outstanding to be exercised and that if they were exercised then further funding would not be required as they would cover the legal costs.
I myself have not yet exercised them , but will now do so as and when the stay is lifted , thus giving me confidence that interest will accrue till Q1 2024.
Also bodes well for RKH when the panel's orders are ignored by Italy, as they were given to protect ROI in the event that the award were annulled and RKH were unable to return the assets. The panel therefore would have no reason to stay the award and the interest accrued would resume. $1.25m per month !
That decision would be enough for me to exercise my warrants much safer in the knowledge that the most likely outcome is a favourable decision for my investment while also providing the company with funds from my warrant purchase.
So, should the Arbitration panel lift the stay (very likely imho ) and should there be a material development on Sealion then I would be comfortable with taking the warrants and should say half ($2.5m ) worth of the holders do the same then a significant sum will be available to the company coffers and dilution, could / may ,be avoided. The anticipated costs for legal fees and enforcement are around $2m as per results announced today.
Not financial advice of course just my take on the current situation.
GLA.
Well it is of no surprise ROI are not co-operating. That is their fall back position, fingers in ears, la la la.
However they can't ignore the law in non ROI countries which is where we are heading .
Italy's Bill up to Aug 2022
'Rockhopper submitted a letter to the Italian Republic in September 2022 formally requesting payment of EUR247 million, representing the Award amount plus accrued interest from 29 January 2016 to 23 August 2022 and costs.'
«Italy has refused to comply with the Panels instructions. »
Not surprising maybe. Very soon we can start taking their assets!
Nice RNS this morning confirming what we already know. Things moving along quite well. I expect a surprise FID before the end of this year?? Definitely looking more and more like when and not if anymore.
Might be worth reading Steven Koonan’s brilliant book Unsettled? which objectively questions the current conventional wisdom on climate change being forced on the world by a majority of scientists, the so called experts!! The book has over 4000 reviews on Amazon over 95% positive!
Firstly; Has labour ever done anything they said they would in their manifesto's and what?
Now, latest presentation puts break even @ 27$ a barrel but the npv pre-tax @ 77$ Brent is 1.8Bn$. Any ideas on the shipping costs per bbl?? Are npv's based on a discounted $ of free cashflow @ 10%? Not that I don't think 77$ isn't reasonable but for all I know 90$ npv is double & 65$ bankrupt.
I wouldn't waste time on MrJinx - as well as being the idiot around here, he's a show-off too.
I suspect he thinks we're too thick to know anything about The Illuminati, posting pseudo-intellectual, ludicrous and irrelevant statements just to be interesting.
Go away Jinx
Mr Jinx, we are now closer to the UK bring involved in a real war where our own territory could be threatened than at any time arguably since WW2 ended, yet Starmer is advocating a policy which will do nothing for climate change, since supplies used from the N Sea will just have to be imported from elsewhere, and worsen our own energy independence. If you cannot see how foolish that is then it is you that is an idiot.
MrJinx
It seems that you love calling people names ... everything from idiot to condescending pr…k.
Next time you do that, try looking in the mirror.
As far as Covid being an Illuminati plot, I think that’s a bit of a stretch.
However there is now a substantial amount of evidence that links gain of function research on coronaviruses in the US that was then transferred to the Wuhan institute of virology. Then the virus appears to have leaked from the lab by infecting a worker. All of the evidence is in the public domain and much of it covered in public cross examination testimony in the US Senate.
The normal course of events usually follows some sort of compromise, in this case I expect a gradual shift away from oil and gas toward renewables. The larger oil and gas companies will have to change their business model to survive. However, I fully expect smaller companies to continue to explore and produce well into the next few decades. Obviously these assets will have to be managed responsibly. All of the necessary governance is already planned for Sealion.
(Not sure what Boris, Brexit or immigration has to do with anything here)
What’s that got to do with oil exploration?!
Is any one concerned that Starmer’s lunatic policy not to grant new North Sea licences could also affect the Falklands? These bloody idiot climate change fanatics seem determined to do all they can to shoot the UK economy in the foot
Navitas petroleum has created a very strong team to finance and develop Sealion. The CEO and others have previous careers at DELEK. The chances of FID happening in one form or another are extremely high in my personal opinion. I invested a little more recently.
All comes to he who waits
GLA
LTT I fully agree with you that 65% is higher than the typical “normal” share that an operating company would hold (40% to 50% would be more normal) and it makes sense to farm down. If the reason this initiative came now already and not post FID is because Navitas has found it a bit more challenging to raise funds than expected OR because they have been approached by another oil company I have no idea, but the latter could also be true if not likely.
My favourite is Murphy Oil as several of Navitas top managers came from this oil company.
You did mention Ithaca earlier which is interesting being majority owned by the Israeli Dalek which again is connected to Navitas. However I was just pondering if Ithaca would be too busy with Cambo oil field to have any time or money for Sea Lion. We will see.
More importantly I do expect that confirmed news of another oil company joining the Sea Lion project will raise our share price significantly as the likelihood of getting to FID then increases.
Good luck all holders
N