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Is surprisingly stagnant considering it finds out if takeda will make a firm offer in less than 24 hours :-/
thanks, hope the price reaches the offer price soon.
Sounds like takeda are worried about a rival bid then ;))))) .
Those hoping that Shire�s BOD acceptance of any offer will lead to another bidder should read the following Takeda statement. �The making of any firm offer by Takeda would be subject to the following matters: - satisfactory completion of a customary due diligence review by Takeda; - unanimous and unconditional recommendation by the Board of Shire in respect of Takeda�s proposal; - the directors of Shire providing irrevocable undertakings to vote in favour of, or accept, the transaction in respect of their Shire shares on terms satisfactory to Takeda; and - final approval by the Board of Takeda�.
I would suspect the BoD are not that far off recommending the offer as otherwise there would be little point in continuing to have dialogue save for the desire that a third party might in the interim declare their hand. i.e. an improvement by about �2 would do it.
After last weeks fireworks today was a non event . One way or another things are gonna heat up though, I have no gut instinct of whats gonna happen but im still leaning towards a new party declaring there hand.
AK, its shire we are talking about. Any other stock would be trading at 10% below the offer price. If there is a deal it will go up by �6 and if there isnt, it will trade down by �6. Which i think is unfair on shire as most pharmaceutical companies have made a decent recovery over the same period. To stay on similar terms with its peers shire should not lose more than a couple of pounds if there is no deal. But it will fall a lot more as loads will panic sell. I won't!!
Why are we not on 45 or 46 pounds, is it because the deal has not been accepted. Do we expect to reach 45 mark next week. I still believe anything under � 50 is a steal.
Exactly �38. ATB, Scfc
All pharma stocks up 1 to 5%. Only shire in red.
Yep. I wonder what the 1st question at the AGM might be??? :-)
No leaks, yet Tak up 1.3% on Tokyo m and 3% on adr, shp down 3% adr?
Oh yeah it�s the AGM tomorrow and dividend payment day. thurs for Q1
Q1 results are announced this Thursday, not tomorrow. ATB, Scfc
It could be that with the Q1 results being announced tomorrow that both sides are playing a waiting game.
I struggle to reconcile the BoDs message (below) and the 4th offer that is a tiny bit above the 3rd offer. Admittedly there is a bit more cash but only 50p in overall consideration. Yet the 3rd offer 'significantly undervalued' Shire according to the announcement. How can they accept the 4th given their comment about the 3rd? "The Board met again and thoroughly considered the Third Proposal with its advisers and unanimously rejected it, concluding that it continues to significantly undervalue the Company and Shire�s growth prospects and pipeline. Following the Board meeting on 14 April 2018 which rejected the Third Proposal, at the Board�s request Shire�s advisers entered into a dialogue with Takeda�s advisers to discuss whether a further, more attractive, proposal may be forthcoming and to understand the basis on which such a proposal would be made. The Board and management of Shire remain committed to enhancing shareholder value and are focused on fully evaluating internal and external opportunities to maximise value for shareholders, including any further proposals from Takeda."
Given how leaky this bid/deal has been, I am amazed that the outcome has been kept secret today. This is how it should be but I am just surprised. The market obviously can not read it either as we are priced pretty much in the middle of a deal/no deal situation, ie it is looking 50:50. May go to the wire (ie Wednesday). There is going to be some mega volatility in the coming days and weeks. Only for the brave (or stupid).
There will be a lot of volatility and the new huge debt burden will a worry to some. But the level of debt undertaken will be priced in way before our shares are listed and tradeable. I would be more worried that Takeda are not able to manage the enlarged group and that its results in the future do not match expectation. If this happens then the risk associated with the known level of debt increases. I could be wrong but the immediate SP of Takeda after announcing the offer will be your best indicator of the likely price. The big boys are unlikely to sell out and us small investors have absolutely no influence over the SP. The PIs will either sell before completion (ie before share issue) or will sell their Takeda holdings soon after conversion. Either way there should not be a drastic fall. If Takeda SP falls hugely on the announcement of a bid, then the deal is likely to fail anyhow.
i was thinking of the massive debt that takeda would be carrying when the shares appear on nasdaq and the impact on the share price hopefully the share price stays around �26
I agree with Romeike. The mere suggestion of a 50% fall is ridiculous. This would be a dual listing and will be priced to match the value on the Japanese markets. Any potential fall will happen way before the actual listing. There will probably be a fall as soon as a deal in announced and this will drop the value of the �26 portion. I would not worry about the paper side too much. Or if you are that worried, sell as soon as the deal is announced. You will still get �42-44 in cash.
I've never seen this happen with other deals, why would Takeda drop 50% that is crazy. Most people will want to hold onto the shares to avoid creating a large tax bill for themselves. Anyone for whom this isn't a consideration isn't holding enough to have any impact on the share price by selling.
My biggest fear is that if this offer is accepted and we receive �21 in cash and �26 in takeda shares then come the time that the shares start trading on nasqaq they could lose at least 50% of their value. I reckon there will be a stampede to sell the new shares and that worries me more than a no deal situation.
If the board rejects the deal it seems certain that there will be volatility in the share price. The board will need to be more proactive about selling off non core assets like ophthalmology and organising a separate listing for the neuroscience business unit. In this way they will demonstrate delivering returns to shareholders and attract investors, improving the share price. At the moment they are asking investors to tolerate small biotech dividends for big pharma like growth. At least Takeda is promising to keep doling out 3% annually.
I agree with you to some extent. But if no offer comes there will be a severe reaction in the short term anyhow. The herd mentality (not necessarily rational) will prevail and market makers will be happy to oblige. So I think it will have a horrible fall to start with and I mean a drop of say 500p. But there is an increasing recognition, as you say, of the value of the various bits of Shire and it will get a re-rating and come to be loved again. The BoD need to show strong and clear leadership and guidance as that this the root of the current weakness. Without a deal, it will be a long time before it hits �47/48 again so I strongly urge the BoD to agree the current offer.