There are various ways in which NPV is calculated. Normally they say for this type of development if certain things happen say over three months then what would the share price/ NPV be then. Then they discount the price backwards to now, to give a "Present value and SP. So you can see if the commercial phase is highly speculative they apply a big discount if it’s a sure thing they apply a small discount. My way of looking at the 10% discount they give is that the development is 90% certain to reach the value they have based their figures on ( In my example in 3 months time ) Also remember that the NPV share price is very often only a fraction of the value the share may reach by a factor of sometimes 3-10. But they tend to stick with values worked out by a fixed formula not taking into account the rush that will happen when everything is sorted and QFI are printing money.
BertyW Good Morning May I ask ask your opinion please, at the risk of sounding naive here, something that has bothered me these last few months ie the commercial aspect the wording has changed somewhat from this time last year, once Marine MMu,s have been installed and commissioned in lets say 2 locations, THEN we commence feeding the appropriate amounts of Marine MSAR2 2 to the 2 Maersk vessels, will qfi receive a % of this feedstock revenue, if so is this deemed commercial revenue , then we have a minimum 6 months of LONO phase ( possibly after 2000 hours an increase in vessel take-up ) once LONO has been issued, is it THEN and only THEN we can deem to be churning out Marine MSAR2 on a commercial basis, The reason I query this wording is the way the market in general can look up QFI and see that they actually are producing an income stream and this stream can only increase regarding Marine MSAR 2, so September 2015 for Marine commercial revenue,, BUT end of H2 2015 for production on MSAR @ 350,000 toms per annum subject to the satisfaction of the relevant KSA engineers on the month trial SO on that basis, ? on semi commercial revenue from March ref- Marine MSAR2 once mmu commissioned and producing and August/September for commercial revenue from first MMU in KSA Appreciate your feedback and clarity
Edison has a reputation to keep as well as QFI, Maersk, etc. They won’t report untruths. Of course this is a teaser report designed to interest investors and should be regarded as such as part on your overall research. Past reports have been fairly accurate and I see no reason to view this report in any other way. Combined with all the other information gathered we see QFI progressing steadily towards commercialisation and substantially de-risked. At some stage the balance will tip and more institutional investors will step in and drive the SP up again
A question for the AGM If the MMU purchased in 2012 is to be used for "commercial / LONO" quantities". Where are the two MMU`s recently announced as near future purchases going to go. One to KSA but that leaves a spare???? Does this indicate three units producing MSAR in 2015 ? Regards
Datafeed and UK data supplied by NBTrader and Digital Look.
While London South East do their best to maintain the high quality of the information displayed on this site,
we cannot be held responsible for any loss due to incorrect information found here. All information is provided free of charge, 'as-is', and you use it at your own risk.
The contents of all 'Chat' messages should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Limited, or its affiliates.
London South East does not authorise or approve this content, and reserves the right to remove items at its discretion.