I've put you on the charts. Congrats on your 257%. I know all the text books say take the original money off the table and let the rest work on new fronts. Personally where this stands in my portfolio is medium-long term, but that's because of the balance with other things I have established. I also strongly believe this has a ways to go yet. It's up 22.5% this year so far and 2014 is the hinge year for this bank on the way to 2017/19.
If I had followed my financial advisor's advice I would have taken money off the table at 0.26 (100% gain) but even though it's a chunky position I ignored the advice.
Expect news about the dividend: year end is only 8 weeks ; and the results are out the 1st week of 2015; if you have held for so long another several months is worth the wait; anyways after a dividend is paid it can become a long term hold..
..the govt owns 99.8% of the 523b shares; so if they got rid of the 500b they would still own the 99.8 % anyways; .. Govt has left the block of 500b shares as separate ; it has not increased or decreased this block at all; in fact they issued an extra 2b shares just to pay the preferred dividend; never touched the 500b block of shares at all; ..some news should be out before the end of year about this..
..i will do some research on boi this week, but have AIB here: tier 1 was 14.6% v boi 11.8%; AIB has projected write offs of 703mm according to ecb; however for the 1st half of 2014 only took 92mm v 744mm it took 1st half of 2013; net interest margin improved to 1.82% v 1.40%- I had to dig the footnotes for that one, although on paper they were showing 1.60%, don't know why for that one; profit before tax on June 30, 2014 was 437mm ; they could easily come up with 900mm€ profit for full year or more ..; total shares at end of 2013 was 518.2b shares and climbed to 521.8b shares: they issued more shares as an exchange not to pay the dividend of 280mm; there has been talk of exchanging common stock for preferred; but this would not make sense; they would have excessive amount of common stock after this trade ; the next step for AIB is to figure out what to do with the 500b shares which are useless and delay any type of privatization; these excess , useless shares are blocking the entire privatization; the govt has plans to sell shares over the next several years to recoup the bail out; a likely scenario would be to liquidate the 500b shares; that would leave about 23b in shares; these 23b in shares could go as a reverse stock split to bring the # of shares down to 12b shares which would then have a market value of at least or more 1€ each..; the govt could then sell to the market in portions of say 15% every determined time period like they have done with bankia in Spain..
Boi did exceptionally well today and hopefully that wll be rewarded when markets open.. The only bit of negative comment I found was the bloomberg comment I posted below. The rules they talk about don't apply for some time yet but it's something boi can address quietly over time. It will be interesting to see the analysis over the week because the tests will give the smart guys plenty of ammunition to compair one bank to another.
What boi has heavily in its favour is the markets it opperates in. Not only is it sound and profitable but it does its business in the fastest growing economy in Europe and with a major foot in the UK as well. Friday morning will also be worth watching. I would expect an extremely upbeat assessment of where the bank is at and if it gives guidance for FY2014 it will be for eirher beating expectations or the upper end of them at the very least.
To pass in the EBA’s baseline three-year scenario, which followed European Commission economic forecasts, a bank’s ratio of common equity Tier 1 to risk-weighted assets had to remain above 8 percent. In the adverse scenario, which included a hypothetical recession and bond-market collapse, the pass mark was 5.5 percent. The results are based on banks’ balance sheets at the end of 2013.To clear the stress-test thresholds, some banks made liberal use of instruments, whose admissibility as core capital will be gradually phased out under the EU’s Capital Requirements Regulation.While on average banks’ core 2016 capital level in the stress tests was 8.5 percent, this would have dropped to 7.6 percent had a fully loaded definition of capital been used.
Banks that passed the stress tests, and whose core capital level would have fallen below the 5.5 percent pass mark had a fully-loaded capital definition been used, include Greece’s Alpha Bank AE (ALPHA), Bank of Ireland and Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG, the main shareholder of Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International.
Bank of Ireland (BKIR)’s capital ratio plunges to 2.9 percent from 9.3 percent, while Spain’s Liberbank SA sees its ratio fall to 2.9 percent from 5.6 percent.
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