I actually think this will be a relatively stable government and last at least 3 years and most likely longer. It is not in FF's interest to bring down a government where they have set many of the policies and at the same time are the main opposition party. Its an interesting position to be in and not to be given up easily. The independents now have a chance to prove that an independent can bring about real change through power. Throwing away opportunity would be foolish. Next time around they would get it hard make a case to the electorate for support. As for FG. They have to make this work because minority government might be the way things will be for quite a while. you need to keep alot of others happy in a situation like that.
I sure was wrong last week. Seems like BOI not regarded, yet, as a buy, by institutions, despite ratings, progress, relative to contemporaries, buying in to a dividend (ulp!) and despite government formation, Ireland's gdp and gnp forecasts by respected bodies. Now I'm hanging my hat on a rebuttal of the low interest rate, internationally, which, imo, just fills the troughs of the non-transparent hedge fund types, leaving the rest of us poor. Did I really say all that?! In for a penny: Let's give Trump a try-out and get back to financial basics with a bit of elbow room for the banks.
Finance spokesman Michael McGrath told the Irish Examiner he will table legislation “within weeks” to give the Central Bank extensive powers persuading lenders to cut expensive standard variable mortgage rates.
“We will introduce legislation at the first opportunity,” said Mr McGrath.
A majority of deputies in the Dáil would now support imposing some sort of controls on mortgage interest rates because lenders are charging “excessive rates”, he said.The legislation could be on the statute book in a relatively short period of time, said Mr McGrath.
The agreement Fianna Fáil has struck to help support a minority Fine Gael government includes a commitment to tackle high variable mortgage interest rates.
The commitment by Mr McGrath means there is likely to be swift progress over variable rates, of which Ireland has the highest in the eurozone.
The Central Bank has long said it doesn’t have the powers to apply ceilings to mortgage interest rates, and, indeed, doesn’t want such powers.
Central Bank governor Philip Lane told reporters last week that imposing a rates ceiling was “a very crude instrument which has many downsides, and is really the symptom rather than the underlying cause”.
He is worried that any controls will discourage new lenders entering the mortgage market.Any legislation to regulate standard variable mortgage rates will not be universally welcomed.
One senior market source said new entrants would likely shy away from a country where rates are set by politicians.
“Political interference would be perceived as very unhelpful,” said the source, referring to funding of Irish lenders and the potential erosion of value in the banks when the State sells its stakes.
i don't think there is very much that will move the share price higher until after the in out referendum anyway. Even after that ECB policy will continue to impact and there is no telling yet what the new government will do on mortgage arrears and interest rates. there were rumors last week that the banks have decided to reduce variable rate when a new government was in place. time will tell.
The one positive might be housing. To make money banks need to lend. With so few houses on sale there has been no real market for banks to lend into. My experience is that that is changing and fast. a number of sites in the Dublin commuter belt area and down along the east coast have been reopened or started lately. In the last month I know of at least 4 big sites in Kildare alone and 1 in wexford all with 300 to 400 houses where houses are going up at boom time speed. I don't have a connection with Cork Limerick or Galway but I suspect the same is about to happen there if it hasn't already.
Housing will be a big part of the new government focus so either the CIF have been made big promises already or they are assuming a stimulus plan is coming. Either way activity has exploded lately. It may take a few quarters for this to show up in the numbers of new mortgages drawn down but it will feed through eventually.
The foundations of a new govt are built on sand. I'll give it 6mths which is depressing as our beloved sp is now in the toilet re its value now. I can't see too many positives ? Anyone out there on the plus side??
Datafeed and UK data supplied by NBTrader and Digital Look.
While London South East do their best to maintain the high quality of the information displayed on this site,
we cannot be held responsible for any loss due to incorrect information found here. All information is provided free of charge, 'as-is', and you use it at your own risk.
The contents of all 'Chat' messages should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Limited, or its affiliates.
London South East does not authorise or approve this content, and reserves the right to remove items at its discretion.