AIB i s due to report H114 results tomorrow, this morning) Wednesday, July 30 (we publish a preview note . AIB indicated it had turned profitable in Q1 and we are forecasting a net profit of €100m for H114, compared with profit s the H113 loss of €758m. We are forecasting full year net of €216m. We anticipate income will be c.€100m higher yoy, with costs about €50m+ lower, though the impairment charge will be the big swing factor, down c.€450m yoy. W e will be looking for f urther margin progression from the 1.57% level reported in Q1 (from 1.45% in H213). We expect a margin of 1.60% in H1, driven predominantly by liability re pricing.The margin improvement and reduction in ELG costs should see reported net interest income r ise by 32% from €595m to €785m. On a pre at a 16% improvement. Our non-- ELG basis, the improvement is forecast interest income forecasts for the full year are geared to H1, similar to 2013, where we are forecasting a modest increase of 2% yoy in H1. Further more, we will be looking for a significant decline in the impairment charge to €274m for H114, a near €450m positive swing yoy, underpinned by the ongoing improvements in the macro backdrop and collateral values, as well as the extensive provisions taken b (21% of loan book). y the bank to date
i have never heard of any analyst basing their forecast on the analysis of others, thats totally new to me. I would be very surprised if Davy's would do this as at the end of the day one of the big differentiating points to getting institutional business is the perceived quality of the research. So I don't understand the 593. I took it to be Davy's own forecast however arrived at. i do have a 594 in my database for an identity hidden broker but its 2015.
Anyway, my point is if you are right and concensus is 593 for 2014 then on balance i would be short as there is much greater probability of disappointment as this hurdle is double my number. This is such an important issue and it is really really important to know where market concensus is. We shouldn't have a disagreement on this number. I like fact concensus is well below (in my numbers) where I think it might come out. It's not my experience that the technicals are treated (in general) in the way you describe. 24.1 did a very good job on the way down. I know it closed lower but not for long and on very low volume. When you think of all the numbers that it could have stopped at it is no coincidence, to me at least. The market will play with these numbers but generally on small volume. And in last few days look at trouble 0.26 is causing to this running up.
This share price has gone through every moving average, support and resistance like a knife through butter on the way up to 39c and on the wayback down to 23.8. It took 6 weeks to fall from 39 to 27. It took 3 months to break 27c and only after Ross kicked it in the b..ls did it do that. 27c was also the last rights issue so thats why I think 27c is significant.
I don't have access to the data you have so my figures on profits are not as solid maybe as yours. Rob trader posted here yesterday that Davys forcast based on a number of brokers was FY2014 €593 MILLION. Goodbodys originally had a figure of close to that but revised down to €450 mil. They have always been behind the curve on boi and davys (who are closer to boi) didn't revise down. I know why Goodbodys did their revision but I have a feeling its over done. If the €593 figure is genuine then €600 mil 2014 FY is the number I think we may need to take us through 30c.
Having said that broker figures are guess work anyway. With no 1st quarter results and little or nothing from the bank itself we are all equally in the dark until Friday morning. I just believe management have put in huge effort to move this business forward in the last while. I expect to see that rewarded in the results.
the simple average of the 13 forecasts i have for net is e285 million for FY 2014. There is only one forecast above e600. If they guided e600 (recurring excl one offs) for fy 2014 this sp would fly as its so above forecasts from the pros. The e600 is just below the av of 2015 so they would be a year ahead!!! no, it doesn't need to be that good.
also from a technical point of view there is nothing special about 0.27. 0.26 is a much stronger obstacle, then 0.278 ish
Breaking into 27c is key and it will take results above expectations to do that. They will need to be close to €300 mil pre tax profit with guidance to break 600mil full year 2014. NIM 2.05 will be tough to beat because of the lack of borrowing here. The uk could possibly help boi to reach the 2.05 mark. Anything above will be fantastic. The big one will be debt write downs. I think we will see a big improvement in the loan books and that guidance will be very positive. That 8billion capital put aside will not be needed post stress test.
It will require a 10% lift in 4 days to get us safely past 27c. That's a big ask especially with markets so nervy but it has to be the minimum you would expect with the results they will have. I am no way a gambler but as an investor I will be very disappointed if we don't break 27c on Friday. So 27.5 for close and I would be happy and with an expectation of pushing on to 30 soon after. (So, no messing Putin !!!!!)
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