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Morning Scfc, i agree with most of it but would i approve buying shire if i was takeda share holder ? Yes i would. I read only a couple days ago that Takeda hardly has any drugs in the pipeline and their survival depends on aquiring some co like shire which has one of the most impressive pipelines in the business and would catapult takeda into the big league with guranteed survival.
And no formal bid has yet been made, which is why they need the extension into May, ATB, Scfc
Hi Where-is-my, you need to read the statement from an analyst at Moody’s is very relevant to the market reaction imo esp. on credit rating (which Takeda have repeatedly stated they wish to maintain) and level of debt needed! Also note they refer to needing both sides shareholders approval...would you approve if you owned Takeda?
Hi jjf, i thought takeda sp droping would mean the deal is going to go ahead. I would have been worried if their sp suddenly started gaining as that would mean no deal...but what do i know, i thought shire would blast away to mid 40s today and here we are nursing a negative price.
Is in red <---- lol This is just priceless...anyone wanna buy shares at 39 which will be worth 47 at the very leat on 8th may?? They come with the exta bonus chance of another bidder emerging also...
The current offer is worth - based on the value of Takeda on last nights close of yen 4510 = �29.60 (152.37 fx) x .839 = �24.83 + cash $30.33 = �21.73 (139.58 fx) = Total �46.56. Based on current share price �39.50 and less the cash element of �21.75 = �17.75 or yen 2704. So if you paid �39.50 for the Shire shares, the Takeda share price would have to fall a further 28.75% (4510 x 28.75% = yen 3213) x .839 = and that would put you at break even at �39.50. You would own shares equiv to 50% of a new larger company plus circa 45% of your cash back. I hope i have done that right. I think the market is being overly pessimistic. Those Takeda (ADRs) would recover over time.
The current offer is worth - based on the value of Takeda on last nights close of yen 4510 = �29.60 (152.37 fx) x .839 = �24.83 + cash $30.33 = �21.73 (139.58 fx) = Total �46.56. Based on current share price �39.50 and less the cash element of �21.75 = �17.75 or yen 2704. So if you paid �39.50 for the Shire shares, the Takeda share price would have to fall a further 28.75% (4510 x 28.75% = yen 3213) x .839 = and that would put you at break even at �39.50. You would own shares equiv to 50% of a new larger company plus circa 45% of your cash back. I hope i have done that right. I think the market is being overly pessimistic. Those Takeda (ADRs) would recover over time.
Maybe there is a bigger player lurking just around the corner.
Gonna go negative.
Takeda has been granted an extension until the 8th may in which time both parties will be subject to due dilligence. The winning post is in sight but there are still some hurdles to overcome. The market is still not 100% certain that takeda can pull this off hence the cautious share price.
Thinking about things a bit more logically, investors are probably not going to want Japanese shares in a company that will have a "challenging" balance sheet and is already bombing. Will wait til lunch before making decision. May take a small profit and move on.
Based on Takeda's share price of �4,923 and the exchange rates of �:�: of 1:151.51 and �:US$ of 1:1.3945 as at the close of business on 23 April 2018, the Revised Proposal implies an equivalent value of approximately �49 per Shire ordinary share comprising the equivalent of: �27.26 in new Takeda shares; and �21.75 in cash. On this basis the Revised Proposal is equivalent to a value of approximately �46 billion for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of the Company. Shire shareholders would also be entitled to any dividends announced, declared, made or paid by Shire in the ordinary course prior to completion of the possible transaction.
So far so unexciting. Stock Markets are so incredibly difficult to predict. When I bought in at around 3800 I fancied 60% chance of 4400 this week, when I heard the news last night I was around 80% sure I'd get 4400 this morning. I'm �300 up since Monday on an investment of around �6500....not bad but was hoping for a cheeky grand... Might bail this morning...not really a day trader these days....
I am surprised that the SP is not a little higher. I would have thought that the professional arbitrage brigade would be all over this given the gap.
Why is this not trading much higher ?
...is interesting. Looks a good deal for Shire shareholders, especially in light of the last 12 months but if you owned Takeda shares you really wouldn’t be happy at all imo! I am far from convinced that they have maintained a disciplined approach but that is more for Takeda to worry about. Amazed a company now worth c$36bn or so is paying well over $60b. Seems the wrong way round! Still, interesting few weeks ahead... ATB, Scfc
So .. consensus is sit tight then ?
Ah ok .. yeah thought it pretty restrictive condition of firm offer .. thanks
If another offer comes along they have to look at it on behalf of shareholders. Price up 3 1/2 % before opening.
Didn’t I read that the Takeda offer is subject to once accepted by board they have exclusivity??? I don’t know if such s clause is binding but someone posted on this earlier in the thread .. if so can shire look at alt offers ??
Offer now stands at �46.74 based on takeda share price which dropped 7% in Japan. Be interesting to see how SHP opens in a few minutes
Anyone selling below 49 is either in financial strife or mad, as the 49 pounds is what the shares are worth when this is agreed. Which will be a cert as the major shareholders will be licking thier lips. Hope another offer comes along ! Hold and wait, good luck everyone.
Reuters saying 49 with slightly more cash 21.75 and shire to agree extension to 8/5 subject to due diligence both ways
Be interesting to see what the deal is at least it should move the sp up now that they are working out the merger.
That should be 21: 27 uk.