We can speculate endlessley but the lack of SP movement after discovery announcement probably had more to do with the company's financial position. It might have suprised most PIs that the SP didn't move but any data analyst who understands O&G companies and what it takes to run one would probably have understood that finding the oil is the tip of the iceberg. It can take years to fully develop a field, couple this with a company with a poor management tract record, bad financial position and lots of other companies to invest in, it's not that surprising the SP didn't move. NUR1 was the only thing Max had going for it, take that away and there's nothing left worth investing in really.
How do account for the sp falling every time the company announced a discovery? Did not and will not make any sense to a logical thinking person. However, what I did not realise at the time was the cash burn of the company after the placing in 2011. We obviously have differing views which adds to the intrigue of share dealing but my guess is the guys in the smoke filled rooms did. MXPs success rate was pretty good at the time, all the operating costs thereafter was blamed on NUR-1. The carrot that kept you invested.
I understand how the market "works", understanding whether shares or indices will go up or down is a whole different matter. My point was that there are a lot of the 'tin-foil hat brigade' on forums such as these who see cloak-and-dagger manipulation everywhere - nothing just "happens" it's all a conspiracy, right? ;-)
MMs have influence yes but as I said earlier I think most people's view on just how much influence they have (especially in the mid to long term...short term yes there may be tree shakes etc) is overstated. People just want to believe there is a reason for everything, the simpler that reason the better, they want to understand, and blaming the 'bogeyman' is the easiest reason of all. I'm not denying that MMs can make money no matter what the SP does (due to the spread, commissions etc) and yes sometimes the big players do collude (e.g. the Libor scandal) but the level of collusion required to set a specific SP for MXP would be far in excess of the reward likely to be gained from it. As for the MMs knowing something 'secret'...again this is trotted out all the time and sometimes may be true, but usually won't be. Aside from the fact it's illegal insider trading (and why risk losing your license/business over a broken company like Max), how would they know more than we do? I don't see that there are smoke-filled rooms populated by shady characters who secretely manipulate the world to their own ends....things are too random and uncontrolled for that.
The MM's job is to create a market. Whatever the conditions or price they always win. Always have and always will. Robster, your more naïve than I thought. If they are you views then why move from MXP to RXP. I would suggest RXP has more potential than MXP to be volatile at the moment as investors wait for news. Any news, good or bad will be known by the MM's. They will drop or raise the sp before any RNS for their own gain.
As for MXP, buying seems to be discouraged for now. The reason is only guess work but I suspect something is happening in the background. Just my opinion of course but will be interesting to see how this company plays out. I wouldn't write MXP off just yet.
I think that the effect of MM manipulation on a SP is often overstated, especially on AIM where share prices are volatile anyway. People like to have explanations for things and if a SP fluctuates they need an easy explanation, and stating "it's the MMs playing games again!" is the stockmarket equivalent of "God did it!". Most of the time the truth is probably that it's just a result of thousands of people making decisions and doing their own "thing" which causes the price to drift up or down. Yes I know there are times when MMs do manipulate the price but with a small tiddler like MXP I have to ask would they really bother as much as people think for a share that's worth little more than 1p? Seems unlikely. The SP is what it is because the company is broken, simple as!
Very funny. Just reading your posts from yesterday. Very cruel of you. They are still at the 'MM's doing me a favour stage' 'drop a bit more and I am topping up'. Oil companies hoping to go into production from a drill are still speculators. Until the word speculation is removed from any AIM company then the MM's will take the sp to a level that they hope will generate the most trades.
Looking at MXP recently and the MM's are trying to lock buyers out with the spread. Large order being filled? Who knows, but it does seem strange that buying seems to be discouraged here.
The real reason I left is that I got fed up of winding people up on this board - you lot are no fun anymore! Either people agreed with me (eventually...) or they got fed up of arguing and left. I bought RXP since they seem like an easy lot to wind up. I'll do it constructively of course, pointing out the speculation being delivered as fact, contradictions and the high levels of cognitive dissonance and wishful thinking. I'll soon be the board pariah over there as well....give me a couple of days to p**s everyone off. ;-P
good couple of posts and i totally agree that your better off riding the pump and de-risking. i done the same myself a couple of months back with oilex that has subsequently fallen to 4p from 12p. one on the horizon is Nighthawk who are to spud their first horizontal well in November i think. good fundamentals there though as well. shame about max really but alot of lessons learned so at least we got something out of it even if it wasn't cash! gl
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