Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
The main problem with transition is that it takes time and resources. Governments are quick to declare arbitrary future dates for carbon neutrality without real plans on how to achieve their goals. The main challenge that is easily overlooked is peoples ability to pay for change. There is a clear disconnect between governments desire and ability. You only have to look at the costs involved. Who wants to spend 10-15k on a heat pump the costs an estimated £500 a year more to run and does not heat the average UK house (ie not a modern new build).
Reality is that under investment in O&G will lead to higher prices on continued strong product demand. All I see in O&G at the moment is value
I wish I and everyone else on this board had your optimism Fool! However, for them to make their Policies work they will need to heavily tax and wouldn’t think for 1 minute that SQZ would benefit. It makes loads of sense to protect our energy security so let’s see what the newly appointed minister Mr Schapps has to say. Would be lovely that Labour would target the majors but they know this won’t bring in any extra. Anything for votes!
Speaking personally, I've a solar installation on my house, the panels cost £9,500 and modelling indicates 4,400kw per year on average over the 25 years = 8.6p/kwh, current price cap is = 34p/kw, current domestic gas price is 10.3p/kw
Renewables will replace gas / oil over the long term, but for the reasons stated before, gas and oil still do have a future and the transition takes time hence why I see lots of value here still
A good ops update from Serica where the Tailwind deal is still in the process of completing but indications are that few obstacles are in the way. With SQZ confirming FY 2022 production of 26,182 boe/d and guidance for this year is now, with Tailwind contribution is 40-47 Boe/d and of course hoping that GE-04 might be doing 8/- boe/d by this month.
Overall I think that all is going well at Serica and assuming regulation stuff like the Bruce work is completed with a minimum of fuss then a bigger, better and more diverse Serica looks like a very solid investment. A certainty in the Bucket List and looking pretty cheap I think that management just need to be perfect operationally and get the story out to the market as soon as Tailwind deal completes.
Both BP and Shell strong today. BP up nearly six percent. The problem with the tax is that they escape most of it due them being global. Serica and other independments in the North Sea are now going to suffer even more. Inmv the tax will go up with the likes of Serica ,Harbour being once again worse off while BP and Shell escape this once again.
It really is awfull and to make it worse Serica is still pinning all its hopes on the North Sea.
I feel very let down by HMG and the stance the bod have taken together with the larger holders voting for this deal. They are all the same as far as i am concerned
Where will it end. Maybe good old hmg has been mulling the idea of nationalising the North Sea. If so what price will we get for our shares. Three pounds or there abouts would suit me if they get on with it
Clinch
Total agree.
But apart from a few companies like SQZ, the WFT will becomes less relevant O&G companies move out of the UK, take a look at Shell and BP about 5% in the UK and reducing, Harbour and Equinor looking elsewhere. It is somewhat ironic that the more Shell and BP make the more calls for more WFT that will hit companies like SQZ with very little impact on Shell and BP leaving them to make more money importing O&G from overseas.
Probably due to increase WFTs Shell and BP do not think it is worth pandering up to the UK government on ESG projects as the UK becomes more irrelevant as they go to places where they are not at war with O&G.
I do fear the worst with Labour though but I hold out hope it might not be so bad. But all this talk is just cheap political points scoring at the moment. They will have to look at it more closely when they get in. My hope would be that they get in and do change the WFT as, I would agree with him it isn't working. But they might look favourably on the smaller independent producers in terms of energy security and see that they are trying to supply our country with oil and gas in the most carbon efficient way possible and making modest profits along the way and tailor a WFT to truely go after the majors that are making billions.
I would think Labour would be more likely to listen to the industry and see the EPL hits the smaller co's harder and that it doesn't have that much of an impact on Shell/BP. The tories don't want to listen as they don't want to **** off the majors too much. 75% tax is great PR, hits a load of small co's nobody cares about, but perception is they are going after shell and BP without actually going after shell and BP. I just can't see Labour using the existing Tory EPL they have criticised and putting it up to say 78-85% and scrapping the allowance, I reckon they scrap the whole thing and come up with something of their own. As I say, I hope this would be more targeted at the majors and less penal for the likes of Serica.
Ed Milliband hasn’t wasted much time to say that the WFT isn’t working and that Labour would change the system. He hasn’t got a clue and it’s virtual signalling. Unfortunately, the public might not realise that o&g companies are being taxed at 75%. I’m sure all business owners wouldn’t like their businesses to be taxed at that level…..
GeneralLevy
“I don’t agree, renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels for power generation that’s just a fact and the gap is widening”
Only if you just count generation costs and nothing else.
Some facts on Renewables
1. The renewable generation costs may be less but that does not take into account infrastructure copper wires etc and the cost of decommissioning.
2. No matter how you look at it you need twice the generation capacity if using Wind and Solar and backup has to be something like gas, batteries can help a bit for a few hours but are another additional cost to this system. So to sum it up you need O&G backup system which are inefficient compared to ones run 24/7.
3. From European Journal for business Science Revised: March 14, 2022. It is concluded that in an electricity supply system based on wind and solar power, it is not the electricity generation that causes the greatest costs, but the storage.
4. The cost of electricity in the UK using gas, biomass wind and solar is far more than China using mostly fossil fuels. In June 22, kWh, U.S. Dollar, UK 0.472, China 0.079.
5. The most energy consumption is in an anticyclone in the winter when there is very little wind and the UK at its coldest as we have had recently, hence all the payments made for people to cut back on electricity during these times.
6. Large generators are most efficient when run 24/7, much more efficient and cheaper to run than backup systems so a fossil fuel generation is far cheaper running 24/7 than being brought up and down to fill in the gaps for Wind and Solar
.....while the Company waits for the transaction to close, at which point the real work commences for
the management team.
Serica expects the merger to be immediately accretive to reserves, production, cash flow and earnings per share, as well as enhancing the Company’s financial strength from strong ongoing cashflows that should support further M&A, organic investments and returns to shareholders.
As the year progresses, stakeholders should also look for greater clarity on the operational and financial synergies of the combination, as well as the potential to now invest in larger and more long-term development projects to make use of EPL offsets for new investments.
https://*********************/research/sp-angel/sp-angel-morning-energiser-07-02-23/7_2023020705033576498/56f89600-84ce-4e41-bd40-da0987ec931f
Will this have an impact?
'Upstream oil and gas company Serica Energy PLC expects net production this year to range between 40,000 and 47,000 of barrels of oil per day (boe/d).
That is almost double the output for 2022, which averaged 26,182 boe/d. The company said early production in 2023 was slightly lower than the average due to maintenance work on a gas compressor, but it has now been returned to service.
At 9.07 am, the shares were trading sideways at 242.17p.
City broker Peel Hunt reiterated its ‘buy’ advice and 437p a share price target following Serica’s update.
“The near-term tie-in of the GE-04 [well] will boost this further and underpin a meaningful increase to [more than] 45,000 boe/d,” it told investors.'
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1005397/serica-energy-confirms-production-guidance-broker-sees-significant-upside-to-current-share-price-1005397.html
With Oil forecast to rise to 100 dollars+ and equally be in short supply as 2023 progresses along with a real squeeze on supply into 2024 as demand increases #SQZ's oil addition is looking timely......In addition Gas supply and demand is equally forecast to mirror the same .
At current sp level and current profits/cash flow, offset tax losses etc and the expected outlook for both Oil and Gas, at some point the sp will start to take a forward look once the deal is signed off, will 240p ish look cheap in the rear view ? I think it will :-)
I'm sort of thinking that this the calm before some good news. They haven't disclosed any thing new, but hopefully preparing for a big announcement that might acknowledge our existence. Other majors put a big emphasis on returning value to shareholders and it's almost ridiculous that Serica, in their position, have not done the same. We can only hope!
Gas
Is the gas crisis over? Of course not. As long as EU utilities refuse to sign up l-t contract due to climate goals, LNG export capacity remains in short supply.
https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1622755646293540868
I don’t agree, renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels for power generation that’s just a fact and the gap is widening
But will take a couple of decades to phase out fossils fuels and people forget, natural gas and oil are vital for other industrial uses other than power generation or fuel - and production globally will fall off a cliff, that’s why I’m here there’s plenty of money to be made
At least we will be able to recover 109.25% of cost on Bruce upgrade .... :-)
Install for free and we get 9.25% Bobby Bonus too ..... but hush, don't tell Labour.
aimo & dyor
Norma you are so naive ? What else did you expect ?- just the same as previous updates - realised sale prices , how much cash they have how much is restricted ? An Outlook.
What they have released is the bare minimum they can get away without exposing what an awfull deal this is.
Tailwinds production in December peaked at 24.5 booed they said a month ago to sell the deal - on its way down allready
I don't buy into your blind faith approach but hopefully it will soon become clear why major PIs voted YES.
looking forward ...
Oil..
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-face-serious-supply-problem-2024-production-capacity-runs-out-goldman-warns
according to Goldman chief commodity strategist, not only will oil rise back above $100 a barrel this year, it will rise much more in 2024 when it will face a serious supply problem as spare production capacity runs out.
Speaking on the sidelines of a conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Sunday, Goldman chief commodity strategist Jeff Currie said that with sanctions likely to cause Russian oil exports to drop and Chinese demand expected to recover as the country ends its Covid Zero policy, prices will rise above $100 from their current level of around $80. Meanwhile, doubling down on his key long-term thesis, Currie said that a lack of spending in the industry on production needed to meet demand will also be a driver of higher prices, and this lack of capacity may become a big issue by 2024.
Personally, I do not think this UK government will survive the next general election and whoever comes next will realise that energy security and the replacement of Russian gas for Europe is a priority. Net Zero will slowly wither on the vine and therefore SQZ a good long term punt. Purely an opinion but I feel the Eco Green Marxism is coming to an end.
The PR is moving up a level….
https://twitter.com/sericaenergyplc/status/1622856224742993920?s=46&t=al5hxjGFZI4asORlwuDLRw
What a dire tweet !! they couldn’t even upload a snazzy photo….. the tweet is as flat as the update!!
It’s just an ops update. This is how much we produced and this is what we’re up to. And the North Sea can be adverse in winter. What else did you expect?
Operations Update:
Mitch Flegg, Chief Executive of Serica Energy, commented:
"The production performance of both the Serica and Tailwind portfolios has remained strong despite some extremely challenging weather conditions during January. There is an exciting investment programme of value-adding activities throughout 2023 which has started with the work to tie-in the Gannet GE-04 well. I look forward to updating the market with results of this programme as data becomes available."
Apart from MF’s comments, a pretty underwhelming flat update in my opinion, can’t see it having any effect on the current share price situation….
Anyone have access to Peel Hunt Broker notes? I read that they put out a broker note yesterday, 437p target share price if correct….
Makes a lot of sense. Energy should have a dedicated government department and BEIS is neither fish nor foul.
Rumour of an announcement of a new government Department which will be interesting. If its standalone "ambit" includes energy security which it should reasonably do - they should be on to the fact the new taxes without some finesing are killing the NS..
Whilst there is zero chance the 35% headline rate will change, I do think common sense will prevail and they will look.at the ceilings / floor with falling energy prices.
Like others if SP continues to fall and approaching 80% cash I'm hoping and praying for a private equity bid however unlikely that seems.
With the SP dropping day by day, we really could do with an update. OK, a 45pc drop in 6 months isn’t entirely down to the Tailwind deal - market prices and tax are largely responsible - but I’d like to hear more about our current position and the strategy going forward.