The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Regarding all the small trades, I have noticed that many large trades, e.g. some share buybacks, etc. appear to be executed via a large number of very small trades, presumably to conceal/anonymise the action? I see this with the CCL buybacks. There is probably a special deal on the charges. I too need an attractive bid for SHP!!!
What also worries me is if takeda says NO, sp may crash to pre offer silly price of �30 a couple of months ago when all other pharma co's were also trding at very low prices. For example HiK was around �9, GSK was �12 and AZN was at �47. They are all now at much higher prices of 13.4 , 14.5 and 52.2 respectively without any takover approach. I feel sry for shire :-/
The way it has drifted down to 38, make me wonder if firm offer will be forthcoming. Last day of trading tomorrow and then decision day. Also looking at the trades executed this morning, i can't understand why there are so many small buys/sells being automatically executed. How can they be making money considering broker fees etc...
Thanks luddite - you are absolutely correct on today's prices - the thought of possible arbitrage had occured to me!!!
The pound price you quoted is of course correct for todays ADR price of $159 but the deal offer price of $196 equates to around �47.60 so there is very little difference between the two, no chance of a bit of arbitrage at the moment.
thanks, guys I've learned something today
The SA $196 price was for the US listed ADR as the yanks have to buy SHP as an ADR , the ADRs are not normally issued in exactly the same quantity as shares listed in London so there is always a multiplier to apply.
why divide by 3- am I missing something?
Yes, my calculation on this would be: $196/3 = $65.3, then 65.3/1.37 = �47.70 vs. �38.78 in London? Is this correct?
In an article about the Shire takeover in "Seeking Alpha" the article quotes "the price per share for SHPG shareholders is somewhat unclear but is estimated to be around $196 a share". Why such a discrepancy?
Think when it becomes formal it should tick off. Fingers x
What is wrong with this share? Few days to final offer of 49 and its drifting down 37? Madness!!
Shire (NASDAQ:SHPG)/Takeda (OTCPK:TKPHF) is trading at 30% of deal success, while the probability is probably 80% at this point. Today a preliminary deal was announced, and the firms now have 15 days to announce a firm, definitive deal. The most complex issues, such as price, are already decided, so the chances of this deal becoming firm and then completed are very high. Another high-conviction idea is Shire. The agreement with Takeda offers a 22% spread, I expect the deal to be formalized within 2 weeks and close by year end. There are no antitrust risks. Fears are driven by a potential shareholder vote at Takeda, the board approval needed also at Takeda, and the reciprocal due diligence currently in process between the two parties. However, Takeda CEO could never make a preliminary offer for Shire without an informal pre-approval from his board - it would be completely uncommon in Japan and elsewhere. Japanese shareholders have never voted down a deal to acquire a company recommended by the board. Finally, the two companies work in similar sectors and know each other very well. It is extremely unlikely that a 10-day due diligence shows anything new and material enough to block the deal. The strategic rationale for the deal is strong, and there are other potential bidders for Shire.
Great article on Seeking Alpha titled - SA Interview: M&A And Event-Driven Investing With Masbro Advisors. Talks about likelihood Shire takeover goes ahead.
From everything i have read, articles, opinions etc i�m getting a sense that somebody else is waiting in the wings and biding their time waiting until the right time before they make a move on shire. I simply cannot see the other big pharmas sitting back and letting takeda get a free run especially after the Q1 figures were released yesterday.things could get very interesting up until the 8th may.
A very interesting read. Thank you much appreciated.
This is a link to an interesting article on the bid: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4166147-shires-share-prices-takedas-deal-price-getting-closer
Susan Kilsby, chairwoman of Shire, owns 6.4% of the company ($64 billion). Lovely job.
She seems to be flying a bit now.
Fingers crossed it gets another bidder involved . Reason im not overly keen on takeda is I feel the price is too cheap and over a few yrs the true value will be shown . The investment was longterm for myself but I appreciate thats not everyone's game . gl
The Takeda price did not fal overnight it recovered by 1%. I am betting on the takeover going ahead, I dont care if its good or bad for either company, I will sell for a profit or loss well before a deal may be finalised. Something I dont really understand is when we had the Abbvie takeover attempt in 2014/15 the price went to around �55 and was rejected by SHP but today they are willing to agree to a price of approximately �47, I was lucky and sold at �54 on that ocassion. I bought at an average price of �38.80 on Tuesday. I would not compare SHP to the Sky takeover but it is not correct that the Sky price went straight to �13, it sat well below Ruperts offer price for well over a year before moving . I am hopeing that Takeda can raise the finance, I dont see why it should not as they have a decent credit rating but I am also wary of the Shire managements real intentions, turkeys dont normally vote for Christmas, both companies have due diligence to complete so what gremlins might Shire find in Takeda ?
Those results may encourage another buyer. Watch this space
Etiquette. Thank you.
Question, if all goes ahead what happens in regard to my shares if I decided not to sell. Or if I did sell on takeover.
If a bigger buyer doesnt surface it wont be for the lack of shire trying to find one imo .