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But for the institutions all you have to do is look at the 8.3s. Since the shareholder vote on 9th February only BNP Paribas and Aviva (and John Drinkwater), of the 1%+ holders, appear to have done anything (apart from the move of the team from Henderson to Lombard Odier which meant both companies had to give holdings notices). John Drinkwater sold out on 13th Feb. Aviva sold on 11th April and 12th April, when it went below the 1% threshold BNP bought 0.02% (102k shares) on 13th Feb but then sold down steadily from 2.94% on 13th Feb to 2.35% on 5th April. After the news of the UK Government public interest review on 11th April it continued selling and dropped to 1.93% on 20th April, a few days before the news on the Spanish approvals. Yesterday it started selling again, dropping to 1.87%. If you remember leading up to the shareholder vote there were a number of institutions who bought steadily: Oddo Meriten, Cicogne, BNP Paribas. So no real panic in that the (presumed) arbitrage players Oddo Meriten and Cicogne appear to have held their nerve and their positions. But BNP has been selling down steadily. And none of them (and no new ones) have stepped in after the news on the Spanish approvals to increase their positions, which you might have expected them to do given their previous buying if they believed the merger was now almost certain to happen. I agree a UK approval, or rather a decision not to refer the acquisition for further review by the CMA, would be enormously helpful. The point about the Chinese approvals I think is that they might be a "joker" for Hytera. If Hytera gets cold feet because of the impact of the delays on the Sepura business, or just gets fed up with having been messed around over the UK/European approvals, then it might be able to engineer a Chinese refusal. Having said that, Chinese policy on companies making overseas acquisitions with foreign exchange reserves has been in the news from time to time I think - and there might be a genuine policy issue there for the Chinese. Anyway, hopefully things will be a little clearer tomorrow or Friday if the UK government sticks to the 4th May (midnight) deadline for making a decision on the need for further CMA review.
Not considering this a done deal at all. But a UK approval would make it sound a lot more as done. The Chinese approvals on the other hand, do not bother me at all. It's purely a formal requirement. Not even remotely comparable with what's pending from UK. WRT what IIs are doing, I can't use that as a reference or guidance, since I haven't followed in detail their moves. If anyone on this board has a full history of the transactions carried out by any of the IIs showing cumulative entries vs exits then we could potentially have a clue RE their strategy and hence a reference.
So BNP finally gets off the pot following the Spanish news - and sells some more into the strength! However much you might all hope this is a done deal, the evidence from the institutions continues to suggest otherwise, doesn't it? No mention of those Chinese approvals in that business weekly article.
Thanks ndml.SE,very enlightening. GLA
Good find ndmLSE. If approved it would probably go up to about 19p as there is always a slight discount to the agreed offer price for financing, etc but still a great return of 20% in 24hrs from today! GLA
... and we finally enjoy 20p tomorrow... http:// www.businessweekly.co.uk/news/hi-tech/uk-approval-last-barrier-sepura-takeover
nothing has leaked or this would be back to 19p
Good. Luck to evrybody holding. Insider in Cambridge we have got all clear gone through
Looking good now kept hold should be ok now can't see it not going through so near election
some nice movement in the right direction, could be finally coming to a conclusion, quick 25% to be made, feel for those that are in this waiting game that got caught, but next news will see this back at 19p IMO of course. then the wait for the sale. good luck
I know what you mean matey! Have a good one too! Best L1
Got sick of reading 8.3 every time I looked a RNS's lol But I hear you, All the best (have a good w/e)
Look at the RNS's Chesh! Basically, UK Gov deciding whether to instigate a full review of the T/O and that decision is due no later than midnight next Thursday so, one way or the other, there will be an RNS by next Friday morning! If not referred, that is the Green light for the T/O which is already agreed at 20p a share so that would be a v. quick 30% pop from these levels. Have a good Bank Holiday. GLA
uk gov decision? Whats happened here? All the best (and good luck)
Let's hope so.... topping up. Gulp.
News on UK Govt decision perhaps? GLA
Reaching 15 P ;D Next Week Show Down !!
Seems to be more of a buying opportunity with most of the regulatory hurdles cleared, can't see the British blocking the sale unless of course they are prepared to finance the company through the bad times which is highly unlikely. They also wouldn't want any bad publicity with an election looming!
uddinkas - just watching for now. As I think I said a while ago, I wanted to see progress on the covenant waivers and signs of some institutions buying back in before seriously considering buying back in myself. We've had some progress on the covenants, but the next deadline of 15th May isn't all that far away. I haven't seen any encouraging news on the institutions, with BNP continuing to sell down. I am interested to see if BNP or any other institution decided to buy yesterday after the Spanish news. I would regard that as a positive. On the other hand if they sold more into the strength, or if there are no 8.3's showing buys yesterday, that would strike me as negative.
Dude (1GW), are you looking to get back in at a lower price?
Chinese clearances (cont). Also worth revisiting these 2 paragraphs in the original 16th December announcement: "The attention of Sepura Shareholders is drawn to the fact that the Acquisition is also conditional on other Conditions and certain further terms set out in Appendix I and to the full terms and conditions which will be set out in the Scheme Document. Sepura Shareholders should take note of the Regulatory Clearances set out in the Conditions in Appendix I, which include the PRC Regulatory Clearances. Sepura acknowledges the very high level of importance and the materiality of the PRC Regulatory Clearances to Hytera, Bidco and the Acquisition." Note in particular that comment on the "very high level of importance and materiality". Now wouldn't you have thought that they would rns receipt of those clearances as soon as they get them given how important they are saying they are?
Chinese clearances specified on page 23 of Scheme Document. "Regulatory Clearances (a) PRC Regulatory Clearances: (i) the issuance of a notice from the Development & Reform Commission of Shenzhen Municipality in respect of the filing notice made in connection with the Acquisition; (ii) the issuance of a record filing notice from the Economy, Trade and Information Commission of Shenzhen Municipality in respect of the Acquisition; and (iii) the approval for the remittance of foreign exchange out of China from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China in respect of the Acquisition;" This section went on to list (b) Spanish clearances, (c) German clearances, (d) UK clearances. As far as I am aware, neither Sepura nor Hytera has made any subsequent statement that the Chinese clearances have been received, whereas they have rns'd the change in the requirements for the Spanish and German clearances.
So why haven't the so called Chinese clearances been stated in any RNS by Sepu or Hytera.....no offence but I would rather go on the published facts than spurious make rubbish on a BB. In my opinion the UK Government will NOT want to be responsible for this takeover not happening and potentially run the risk of Sepu going into Administration.....especially not before a General Election. In my opinion the chance of this happened haa greatly increased now and the UK approval could land any day before the 4th May.....if you are Short here and that happens you are going to get a little burned.
The fact is if we could answer this questions then share price could be 19.99p or on the floor. I understand that is difficult to assess the risk here and you need to rely on your own research.
Can Sepura carry on as a public company/business if the takeover by Hytera fails? And in that scenario, would the shares lose all the value and be worth 0.01? OR if the company gets all clear from CMA on 04th May, how long before shareholders get 20p per share?