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Hardly seems worth it ! setting it up for a couple of hundred k from Europe as it stands !
I'd thought the Ireland office was to make it easier to continue to supply existing customers in the EU.
Of course, new customers also welcome.
Hi Slam01,
Many thanks for your well though post. Hope we will be in profit very soon.
Good analysis slam , I also looked through the results and thought the payment must be in cost of sales , it has to be there somewhere or the bod would be in breach of aim rules I believe . Anyway as you say that will reduce this year and I have a feeling sales are ramping up , I wonder if the Ireland office is in response to inquires from a global player in the gut health sector ! Just a thought
Anyone have any idea when this is due
I have not yet received an answer from IF regarding the royalty payments made to DSM, but I have done a lot more analysis of the current set of results and those from the previous 6 half yearly reporting periods. I think that my analysis is leading me to believe that we might already be trading profitably if you strip out the R&D Costs and the DSM Royalties from the Accounts:
My initial thoughts regarding these two elements are:
R&D Costs: I have always thought that Provexis was a Company with two distinct arms to it. The first arm is as a trading company which looks to manufacture and sell the Fruitflow product - more of that later. However the second arm is as the "guardian" of the IP and the Patents that support the IP. The R&D costs contained within the Accounts merely represent the cost of this guardianship and should not be considered as part of the normal trading.
In my opinion the IP and Patents have an inherent value of their own. It is difficult to put an absolute value to this but I would argue that the IP has to be worth £50M at least, especially when you consider the money that the Chinese are investing to further advance the understanding of the original IP. I suspect that the achievement of SAMR approval will significantly enhance this valuation.
DSM Royalty Payments: My analysis suggests that the Royalty Payments are indeed contained within the Current Accounts within the "Cost of Sales". I think that these payments lie in the range of 40%-50% depending on whether you apply this to gross sales to ex-DSM clients or whether you apply it the same sales but Net of production costs. In either event, my models estimate the Royalty Payment to be approx £145,000 in the latest period. We know that these Royalty payments are time limited and will reduce to zero over the next 3?? years. If we are doing an analysis of the Current Trading II would argue that we need to consider the Company position excluding this particular element of cost.
If you strip out both elements we discount £140,000 R&D Costs and we discount £145,000 as an estimate of the DSM Royalties, then I would argue that we are currently trading profitably as both of these are included in the last reported loss of £267,106.
My models make a few obvious assumptions but I don;t think that I am far out on these and I am happy to share the analysis if anyone in interested.
I am also really buoyed by the reported sales and order numbers post the year end as they are showing highly significant increases in volume. This will only increase further when the SAMR decision kicks in.
But in the words of the immortal Gixer - WTFDIK
Personal abuse from the nutter who bought at the peak, and sold at the lows.
Silly old man?
Pot, kettle ?
LOL. This crock has been trundling on since 2009 and still can't make a profit. Alf has become a silly old man in the interim! Many investors will have shuffled off the mortal coil before it turns a profit!
I hope so, 9 months is such a long wait.
I expect we'll get an update before September because they'll need to rectify the financial position before then - be it equity raise, debt finance or other
Kinda makes you realise why DSM are keen to develop the gut health patents doesn't it.
Fruitflow would be a REAL health claim, rather than a couple of Vits added to a yucky shot.
Actimel makes about €700 m for Danone each year , would be nice if they are the global looking at ff, wishful thinking I know but who else are in this market ! I believe some us companies are bigger, but would they be interested !
The shots are direct competitors to Actimel, which can only claim immune benefits through their content of Vits B and D6. They actually make no health claim for the bacteria because it doesn't seem possible to scientifically prove there are any
Most probably not in M/S as PXS/DSM didn't think it was worth it!!! Should have kept Sirco going
Yes did see the M&S advert last night and was hoping it might contain FF. Maybe an email to Tim and ask him why not
We can’t be sure that we will get any financial update until September. I hope we get it with SAMR approval.
I am guessing that we will get the SAMR approval between now and end of June. That should then mark the start of rapid growth for the company. We understand BH to have a large number of multi-national companies launching products, but I imagine that will all take time. Once we have approval, I expect the 5 year growth forecast will be significant and a good place to have our money.
Having read through a couple of times now I am overall pleased with this set of results , of course cost were always going to be more we have taken over production ! ! I can now see some of the progress being made and the 3 months to Dec 23 look even more encouraging , not sure how much news will come out before the Samr approval but we live in hope it won’t be long now ,4 months into post submission and counting .
P.s.
It's £2 a 150 ml shot
Kind of off topic but not totally.
I see M&S have just launched a new Gut Shot. Doesn't contain FF (unfortunately) but gives some interesting figures.
"Customers are becoming more aware of the gut’s role in overall health and are seeking products that support better digestive function. Searches for ‘gut health’ are up 247% on Ocado.com since 2021 and gut health was named as a top food trend by Kantar in 2023. Our own proprietary insight, Family Matters Index, shows that in 2024, half of consumers are planning to eat more healthily, with a quarter saying they plan to focus on eating a balance of different foods."
https://corporate.marksandspencer.com/media/press-releases/ms-food-leads-innovation-2024-launching-world-first-collaboration-nutrition
Slam, I agree, we won't find out the amount but if he told you, for example, its reported in cost of goods then we know its actually been paid.
Just to let you know that I have e-mailed IF to ask him exactly this question.
Gixer, I am not expecting him to let us know the amount - but I do expect him to have to answer the basic question.
Dr Horrible, I do not think that they can simply exclude the figures from the Half Year Report as it would result in a mismatch with the Balance Sheet.
I will let you know when, or if, I receive a response.
Slam
PS I am a bit disappointed by the lack of market movement today.
Another alternative could be that the royalty is paid to DSM on future productions of Fruitflow, therefore beco9ming an invisible cost of goods in the accounts. No doubt DSM still demand their usual secrecy to throw potential buyers noff the scent of what their margins are.
It's a legitimate question, and one that I hope is possible for us to see an answer to. Not that I'm holding my breath over though.
Has anyone emailed PXS to clarify where the DSM royalty is accounted for? This would soon clear up any uncertainty
Wouldn't expect PXS to give away any of MM's secrets before launch. They may not even know anything as it could be a DSM market ready or premix.
Would have been nice if MM did reply though, even if it was just to say that they can't say anything atm.
Have Emailed MM about Sirco heart about availability:haven't had a reply"emailed PXS" their response:nothing to do with us contact MM!!