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I still find it difficult to comprehend Medco and their 48.5p !!!
Why, knowing it had less than zero chance of being accepted.
Maybe to check out the company response or use 8.3's takeover rules to find out who the +1% holders are or generate some liquidity for their own gains.
They have had access to some sensitive information already via DD that we kindly afforded them. Medco will make an offer on Monday, just have to wait and see what exactly it is. IMO they should go all out at +70p to get the deal over the line this time, no messing, just full and final offer, or walk away for 6 months. (an option they can ill afford)
Now or never for Medco's board
aimo
NKOTB - hope you’re right. Got a lot invested here from a November - December accumulation. Got lucky re timing
Given the massive accumulation by IIs Medco need to agree an offer price with them. They're not greedy. I mean, they're extremely greedy. But I think they would take around 60p ish. Its a good return, for a very short term investment.
I wish t woukd be hgher, but not honestly expecting it.
Jimmy,
Medco will be looking at synergies, a massive plus factor in their eyes.
I'm convinced Medco tried to get their hand on our SANTOS SEA assets, and we out maneuvered them on the deal at the time !
Hence, their interest in us now. They still want these assets.
Our SP has been played for many. many months imo, culminating in Medco's offer on Monday, aimo
gla
I’d love 70p as much as anyone! I just can’t see Medco going above 60p given volatility of markets, the oil price etc
Jimmy,
Think you are a little on the conservative side there imo !
We should be look at attaining $10 barrel P2's so circa 70p/s for a done deal.
NewKOTB, Thanks for the reminder about that. I suppose that might explain the share price slipping over that period, as that's a lot of shares to shift. I guess they didn't want in if Fortuna wasn't happening.
Mytton, I see what you mean now about the price. I was seeing it as people getting in, and pushing up the price, to take the gamble on an offer being made and making a quick buck. On the other hand, if the offer isn't made, they will quickly sell out along with those who bought in when the offer was made. Maybe in a month or so we'd stabilise back at 48p assuming PoO is at a similar level like you say. Hard to tell really when the share price has been so distorted since the offer.
Not sure what ever happened to The Likely Lads of :
Capital Research with their 10.32% & Majedie with 4.6% holdings as of 06/18
Offer , no offer , either way 2019 looking good for OPHR. Santos assets materially increased production, materially increased cash flow and performing better than expected.
The situation is pretty straightforward. If Medco are serious about wanting the SE Asian assets (and given they made an unsolicited approach in October 2018, they seem to be), they should make a fair and attractive offer, and maybe an offer for the SE Asian assets only. This then leaves Ophir free to monetise the rest of its portfolio at a later date.
Due to takeover rules Medco will not be able to bid again for another 6 months if Monday's deadline passes. I'd therefore be surprised to not see an improved offer for the sake of 5-10p (£40-80m) which I think is what is needed over and above 48.5p to get the BOD on side.
SP has been steady since Medco's initial prospective offer so i see 48.5 as supportive to present SP.
There has been no formal offer yet and the indicative level put forward by Medco was rejected with no significant / adverse effect on the sp. So if no offer comes I think we will remain around the mid 40’s short term with good growth in the future. IMHO
With an offer, we are in for an immediate nice rise. I’m beginning to wish I had topped up further yesterday. May do Monday morning depending on the situation.
GLA.
48.5 is just the opening shot in a possible takeover. I take 48.5 as the floor and anything over as a bonus. The company's prospects are improving so the co is not desperate for a rescue takeover. The onus is on the bidder.
How is >48.5p guaranteed? There might be no offer by the end of Monday and the share price drops. What it drops to, who knows, but it's quite unlikely to rise.
I recently bought in as anything under 48.5 was a bargain. 48.5 almost guaranteed and anything over is a bonus.
Monday is going to be a Blockbuster
Sweet, is it not, '73 great year for music.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y64211sjSko&list=RDH__EvPzl_D0&index=15
aimo
gla
I get the feeling selling SEA is the most likely deal - @55p, or somewhere around there. The would be the 'tax efficient' sale which was mentioned with respect to optimising the assets (I can't remember the exact wording from the RNS, but it was along those lines). To me, having had plenty of time to reflect on that RNS, it also suggests that there are other offers on the table for the assets, so potentially it could be someone new who we actually sell assets to. Hopefully something positive happens on Monday, I'm 65% confident of some type of offer...not long to wait now
Thoughts on the offer guys? Coukd we sell SE assets for 58p and maybe farm out Tanzania in one deal? I’d prefer a full sale of around 70p but if we just sell SEA it leaves us very isolated does it not?
Not least POO holding well!
Good finish
No Way we take anything in the 50s
There are signs on today's share price of wanting to go better after the pause
http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=L%5EOPHR&width=500&height=290&p=1&t=1&dm=2&cb=
Wouldnt want to be out for this weekend in particular :-)
Already holding 475,000
Artemis 1.84%
Standard Life 7.11%
Dimensional Fund 1.84%
Norges Bank 2.37%
Legal & General 5.22%
Ruffer LLP 1.15%
River and Mercantile Asset 1.24%
Nomura International 2.644%(-2.644% ?)
Prudential Plc / M&G 9.31%
State Street Global 1.1169%
Carlson Capital 2.525%
Schroders plc 0.686%
FMR LLC / FIL Ltd 7.13%
The Vanguard Group 2.95%
BlackRock 3.46%
Barclays 1.25% (short 1.26%)
Petrus Advisers 2.61%
Azvalor 8.325%
Bybrook Capital 4.3%
Hotchkis & Wiley 13.7%
Carlson Capital 2.375%
Total declared = +84%
Recent large 8.3's over 250,000 shares
Bybrook Capital added a straight 3,500,000 shares at 44.2563 on 11th !! note ADDED
Prudential Plc / M&G added +800,000 shares at 43.87 on Friday !! note ADDED
Petrus Advisers added +880,000 shares at 44.71 and 45.00 on Friday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +300,000 shares at 43.46 and 44.86 on Monday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +1,100,000 shares at 44.84 on Tuesday !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +835,000 shares at 44.66 on Wednesday 16th !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +490,000 shares at 43.03 on Thursday 17th !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +260,000 shares at 44.87 on Friday 18th !! note ADDED
Prudential / M&G added +450,000 shares at 44.9 and 44.96 on 18th !! note ADDED
Azvalor added +266,000 shares at 45.72 on Monday 21st !! note ADDED
Blackrock added +270,000 shares at 45.62 and 45.45 on Wed 23rd !! note ADDED