The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxADOacG09A
Optimistic tone?
Israel are very strong militarily so hopefully can shoot them all down stick them a finger and say... is that the best you have i.e. restraint. Iran is a big land mass 1000 miles away, but not big on political intellect from its rulers, too much religious ideology fogging their brains. The only black swan is chemical, hopefully they're not stupid as well.
Lets see...
How will Israel react if any drones get through??, looks like it could get very messy in the Middles east,
It's all a pipe dream literally!!
Iraq don't want the any oil flowing from kurdistan.
I'm sure now you can all see that 😉 or maybe not!!
Yep the lies the ministers have been saying the last year are clear for all to see. Talk of working with fellow countrymen in Kurdistan while all the time do the opposite.
They are the first to have their hands out trying to get USA dollars and aid.
Two faced and bent as hell.
Only 16 months or so to go.
USA wants the pipe open.
USA hands a significant amount of aid to Iraq.
It's called 'leverage'.
And the USA have it.
Nothing we didn't already know but a nice overview.
https://amwaj.media/article/deep-dive-iraq-s-prime-minister-embarks-on-first-visit-to-dc
Have a great weekend! Hopefully an exciting week ahead for us
This is just a negotiation.
Like any other.
The ITP. will re-open.
The rest is about the price GKP will have to pay in any re-negotiated PSC.
It's called 'leverage'.
And the ICG have it.
Relax.
GKP will negotiate its new position and decide on its response accordingly.
And then we'll make our minds up.
Pretty sure APIKUR will be an irrelevance...that committee of disparate companies have very different agendas depending on their own very different financial agendas.
This is a risk share.
And if you don't know that then you really shouldn't be in it.
Like I said, it will come down to violence or the threat of violence. How anyone doesn't understand the nature of this region by now, especially with everything else going on, I really can't fathom.
It will begin with pipeline sabotage.
I have bottled it, and exited my 20k. Only 5% profit but it has been my concern (previous posts) that the Iraqi goverment could protract the negotiations to undermine Kurdish finances. With the focus shifting to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan PL It satisfies Turkey/Iraq relations and also squeezes the Kurds financially (reducing autonomy aspirations) and helping to push through Turkey stance on the PKK.
It maybe the US may support the Iraqi Kurds but as others have said with the Rusdians having a investment in the Kurdish PL It all looking a bit too fragile for me now.
GLA LTH.
Rgds Sft
It's always been about screwing the Kurds. The IOCs are merely collateral damage.
Shame its the wrong pipeline for GKP
Thank you for this @otmansalamat and those who share things.
I think this and recent news confirms ICG approach is firmly the second option I aired in a previous message: Baghdad to let the KRG pipeline stand, and fully circumvent KRG altogether. While this always was a politically imperative for ICG (to undermine KRG economic-political autonomy), I had thought the US would have an interest in maintaining oil flows through the KRG pipeline.
Yet, especially given that Russia's Rosneft are part-owner of the Kurdish pipeline, it seems the US has an incentive to support (or at least not protest too much about) ICG circumventing KRG pipeline.
"The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline would effectively allow Baghdad to gain full control of Kurdish oil once it is produced. Baghdad will force foreign oil companies who have contracts with the Kurds to renegotiate with Baghdad to sell their oil through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline instead, which will completely cut the Kurds out and eventually make it impossible for foreign companies to operate there."
I guess we'll get confirmation of this during al-Sudani's visit next week. As far as I know, KDP still boycotting the elections/toys out of the pram. Seems like this is finally getting resolved, the uncertainty shall soon disspitate, and a the new reality will settle in.
The question of "which pipeline" seems close to being answered; next uncertainty in my POV is content of new contracts with ICG.
And, if the KRG pipeline can now be considered out of the picture, what are IOC options for reaching export markets?
Wishing you all the best.
Https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/34558-U.S.-Seeks-to-Broaden-Ties-with-Iraq,-as-PM-Sudani-Makes-First-Visit-to-Washington
Generally the more complexity a refinery is the heavier slate it can process at increasing profitability. For example reliance in India must have profits soaring through the roof currently. It had a complexity index (nelson rating), only second place in the world. It loves a very heavy slate like ours, and is currently binging on discounted Russian crude which its mixing then using the refined products to complete in Europe.
Our heavy crude is very valuable and any small discount it is sold at is pure profit the the big refiners. Such heavy crudes have more complex longer chain hydrocarbons which can be cracked . polymerised and converted to very valuable products indeed often with a 2000% mark up, from the original crude price ton for ton. I certainly believe our crude is being trucked out of the country because the margins fordoing so are excellent. We know who will be behind these operations and one of the reasons why there is a local heavy crude shortfall resulting in higher local prices.
Don’t be fooled by him as that’s exactly what he’s doing too
Here we go again, price goes down and Itsaponzi can’t resist the chance to have a sadist’s joyful experience at the expense of GKP shareholders.
But the fact is shares rarely go up in straight lines. The ‘buy on the rumour’ traders pushed the price up buying to 127 then the profit takers sold and the price dropped. Just as I expected and I sold my day trade @126.
This was what I expected when I purchased that day trade on the preceding Friday on the likelihood of positive news re. U.S. visit and Erdogan Baghdad visit ( if it actually happens) as those two events have yet to happen I’ll keep an eye on the price and if I’m lucky ponzi’s prediction of doom lower doom will be correct and I’ll buy that day trade
again and then ‘sell on the news’ when the president / prime minister finally agree
All gains this week wiped out tomorrow!!
Another false dawn with another many more to follow. Surprised the market believed the last load of lies coming out of Iraq. Trade trade that's all this dog is worth doing now.
TF is whoever he/she is.
But it's right that the whole GKP investment proposition depends on continued self-funding, albeit likely under a different guise.
He/she is also right that pricing guidance is critical, and the best start point is Brent crude.
Otherwise, let's just trade and go.
Should read Patience was required But enough Is almost enough
P. S.
Patience was required buy enough us almost enough.
I joined this forum shortly before making my first of numerous purchases of GKP shares @146 almost one year ago. My research had revealed the prospect of volatility which is essential for a share trader. This could have been a ‘long’ day trade but the shares continued to fall and I still own them now along with many more. However, I maintained my buy recommendation that is essential to a longer term part of my portfolio ( if I don’t believe that the shares warrant buying why hold them)
My current hold position however does not merit becoming a sell at his time because I do believe we are in the endgame with more positive short term prospects than negative. That said some compelling negatives do exist and I’ll be ready to jump in either direction in an instant.
The last thing that I would like now is for a dispute that common sense could resolve now to be cast back into the long grass where it has been for the past year. Life’s too short to sit here for very much longer and I for one will move on to my next volatile share opportunity, because that’s what a gamer does.
Is ThomasFousler a parrot?
Do you understand the words "...no direct correlation"?
I don't understand your sentence beginning:
"Secondly, the refiners compete with other local sources of crude; and do you really argue that if that was priced at $120, they would still not pay a single cent more...".
When you say "..if that was priced at $120.." what do you mean by THAT?
I'd like to respond properly to your posting but you're confusing me...