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Of course you did
Hi polo, bought back into producers about a month ago. Star performer so far sis Ross besties equinox up 40% on the month. Have a few dividend payers but imv growth mid tiers like equinox and calibre will likely appreciate the most and be takeover targets.
I am interested to se if it remains an asset sale and if an nsr will be retained in the shell? Obvs royalties are also saleable. Mark didn’t rule out an nsr .
Mellon is a trader/speculator he will be trading until the final bell tolls. Mark on the other hand I expect wants a nice retirement.
Mellon makes the final call. My preference would be cash. Over the last year the Chinese have been heavy buyers of gold, partly because the property bubble there is collapsing plus geopolitics. I like Calibre but would prefer to put the money in more established miners via my pension. But each to their own. GLA. Hopefully some news this month.
If it is Calibre it does make me wonder whether JM will end up on the board...
I wonder if Jim has recently changed his tune. 15 months ago i think he threw his toys out the pram and was insistent on cash but he was as bullish as any about gold price. Now we are on our way to $2300 and Calibre looking well placed to become a multi billion dollar company will he change his tune. I just hope we find out soon as we were told mid December about advanced proces with 2 bidders and we are now 4 months further. All that might have happened is that as gold price rose the bids kept rising and Calibre did the cash raise to seal the deal or have it ready. Shame Ryan did not do a deal with Condor 3 years ago on gold tolling and we would all be far better off as a result. Calibre had a processing plant half empty unnecessarily for last 3 years and could have already hit 500k ounzes. Just hope these CEOs knock heads together and consider long term shareholders.
Some paper, some cash for me. I would quite like to get into Calibre.
If Calibre 50/50 would be ideal for me
I'm also comfortable with paper, providing it is with an outfit like Calibre. If it's the Chinese I want cash.
'Recommend' if you are happy with a paper deal, e.g. Calibre.
'Recommend' if you would prefer cash.
Agree Sunjammer, with JM being a gold bull i expect he would happily take a chunk of Calibre paper if they go for Condor.
Meanwhile some chancer tried selling a golden nugget valued at £3,800 for £40,000 😁
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw9zzx1y4zvo
Likewise, I think I'd prefer an all paper Calibre arrangement rather than an all cash Chinese offer.
After recent $100m raise by Calibre their share price has taken off again and close to what it was before the raise, meaning the $100m was almost a freebie. I would gladly take Calibre paper as they will almost certainly double over next 12 months or more on back of rising gold price. By adding in Condor assets and trucking ore Calibre will hit the 500k ounzes target a lot sooner and move into the mid tier bracket awaiting a takeover. Calibre can get proper valuation on the 2m ounzes we have and that should add more to its market cap than it will cost to buy Condor in the first place. Now seems like a 2 horse race between China and Calibre and i suspect the recent $100m was to be used to sweeten the deal and stand up to China. We will see who wins the prize, and soon i suspect.z
Mm Nero. Mellons interest rate was what 18% on his last loan so $100 m becomes around $120 m to get £200 m so you value Cnr at around £100 m presently. Sounds about right. Mines often get sold mid construction as shown by calibres latest aquisition or Burittica etc. not going to be un Production in a year tho. Commercial production would be 2 years . So much time has been spent treading water adding more shares that it has to be sold imv and thankfully the pog is turning at the right time to help.
So looks firm here and good for a bit more.
Good luck all
Sorry that should be $100m not £100m!
I don't know, how hard would it be for Jim and some billionaire PE chums to whip round £100m?! Not that hard I imagine. Must be tempting when the gold price is on such a tear. 12 months to build then sell the producing mine for at least £200m.
Surely that has to be part of their negotiating strategy, even if he's not seriously intending on following through?
Unfortunately there is no meaningful Plan B, i.e. production, so no leverage if there is only one meaningful bid. Hopefully Calibre have raised the 100million to buy Condor; and even better would be if a Chinese company also wants the assets.
I don't know, maybe 60p later this month GLA
Knowing how undervalued CNR is and continues to be, full transparency, my approach is to ride this out, then invest my initial stake immediately back into the buyer.
The BFS is f___ing outrageous. If CNR had gone into production, it would be a billion dollar company.
When I first bought CNR 4 or 5 years ago, I had watched a very convincing JM say gold going to $5000 and how could I not believe a self made billionaire?
I think everything has a market value based on supply and demand, and if the price gets too high, demand decreases and price falls, unless there really is supply shortage in extreme.Even like this, if its unaffordable for the masses or the market buyers, they look for cheaper alternatives or we have huge recession.
Commodities will rise in price, gold is getting harder to find, finds can be deeper underground and extraction and production costs more.
Oil is interesting, demand should decrease, but new oil will also be more expensive to produce. Copper will be very interesting.
Who knows, certainly not me given my AIM picks. Mining exploration is slow and tough and finding a commercial deposit and becoming a producer is even more difficult, and the hand of the private investor is always much weaker than directors and ceos.
My hope has always been a JV so we keep 50% and Calibre or someone puts up all the development capital. Maybe the Calibre cash might be used with this in mind so keeps some action for hard done pis. The profit now at Condor if it was digging up 100k ounces would be over $1300 an ounce or $130m. thats just 1 year at base case numbers. Everyday gold rises you start to worry we will be sold too cheaply at 2023 prices. Also must motivate buyer as since December we have risen a few hundred dollars in gold prices and that really changes the profits. I am expecting news before mid April.
Gold futures for the next 3 months is at £2295 so it’s warming up
Fair comment. I must admit to having lost a bit of patience in the last 2 - 3 months, and it does look like JM's heels in the ground have set us up for a strong exit price. Having said that, the spike in gold might now start to influence investor sentiment in the gold sector. That project finance that looked so difficult to obtain a year or so ago might now be a lot more achievable.
Could the BoD still swap horses at this late stage and pull out of negotiations to build a mine?
I'm groaning as I type but gold's recent bull does require a re-think.
Exhumed from KWN:
Graddhy out of Sweden: My minimum price targets for the commodities bull are still the same as in 2019:
Gold $10,000-$15,000
Silver $370
Oil $250-$300
(in today’s value)
This commodities bull is the opportunity of a lifetime.
https://kingworldnews.com/look-at-these-shocking-price-targets-for-gold-silver-plus-other-surprises/
In a nutshell, gold in 5 figures by 2036, almost as long as I've been in Condor.
What do people make of this? KWN pumping, or a real chance?
Discuss...
" On paper you might argue 100p, but in the deal world I think we remain a way off.
I don't think Jim has played the hardline over all these months for nothing, he knows what a fair value is taking everything into account, the gold bull run has just added to his exit value in my opinion.
The real losers were the companies taking the mick with unrealistic bids 8 months or so ago, now they need to reach deeper in their pockets to get the deal over the line.
A couple of weeks ago I had my flag pinned at 50p. With no announcement yet on a deal I feel bound to believe that gold's performance over that time is having an influence on the exit price for the assets. Perhaps another 10%, though I suppose value will be heavily influenced by the SP of an acquiring entity if that's the route we are going. If it is Calibre, and deal is primarily in paper, would we reap the benefits of any value increase Calibre might be experiencing due to the spiking PoG?
Meanwhile, as I type, gold is at an all time high of $2277 and still nudging upwards.
Notwithstanding the recent increase in the SP CNR is worth double where we are sitting tonight. I just hope that the deal reflects that. Anything above 100p is a nice thought, but even with the gold spike I just don't see us getting anywhere near. On paper you might argue 100p, but in the deal world I think we remain a way off.