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Echoing Billy’s post.. YOU ARE TALKING TO YOURSELF.
WTI could be $100 and it would mean fook all unless LOFGRAN gets these massive reserves out of the ground . We all know that isn’t going to happen
Billy, unlike people like you, I read stuff. Specialised stuff by informed people. Russia did not "turn on the gas" last night.
Putin said Russia was willing to help but linked it to NORD 2. Gazprom started filling some of the feeder pipelines required to fill Nord 2. Even if Nord 2 is switched on, that gas will take weeks to get to a commercial flow in Europe.
DYOR
Morning Trolls.
WTI back over $79.
xx
No one cares. Your not getting it. Your talking to yourselves again!
We know where to find the info it’s very easy.
On a side note you would think the urgency would to drill as many wells as you can to take advantage of WTI and sentiment.
OPEC will soon open its taps. Russia did last night in Gas.
PS just double checked and no permit for Cypress/Fouke No 2. They get issued in 24 hours and so Cypress would only submit the application when they are about to spud.
Ok. Last go. I said, I had expected it to be done by now. Whether it is spudded this week, next week or the week after, I had expected it would drilled in September.
IMHO they need to spud this month because the weather is still okay. From November the weather gets worse.
FYI it you want early warning of the spud, keep an eye on the permits on the RRC website. I won't be doing it.
DYOR
These are excuses now.
I said I expect C2 to take 21 days from spud. We know the pitfalls and issues we encountered with C1. So they shouldn’t come up with C2. So as soon as spud is announced I give 21says. We have about 85 days left of Q4. It C2 is not spudded this quarter then you might as well knock off another 20% of the share price. As confidence is low all ready with the sand bagging of news this year. You suggest delays in C2. CEO released RNS this saying deal done on C2.
?
Billy, can't you read?
Cypress 1 was delayed whilst they sorted a land package, another 80 acres.
I expected Cypress 2 to be done by now. It may be that they are sorting another land package: I don't know. If they were sorting another land package and I knew that to be the case I couldn't tell you.
What are you talking about 21 days from spud for? I have seen nothing that says that they have spudded. I expect they will spud shortly because once they start to get into November the weather deteriorates. Much better to get it done in October. Completion should be pretty quick because it can be tied back into the existing facilities.
Yes it is too expensive, relatively. When NTOG was looking at deals last year, quoted prices were $10k/$15k per flowing barrel. Currently, they are $25k/$30k per flowing barrel. If oil goes past $80 and stays there the price is going higher still.
I know that NTOG was in detailed discussions for quite a large package but as the oil went up the vendors got less and less keen on selling and the price went up. Eventually, it got to the stage that it wasn't viable from NTOG's point of view.
In your second para, you contradict yourself. You say that prices are too high but then say that everyone knows how low it can go because of COVID and so people are not lining up.
I have been investing in oil since the early 1980s; oil is cyclical it goes up and it goes down. What is different this time is this Green New Deal mania. It is increasingly difficult to replace supply in meaningful amounts.
Anyway, as they say: the cure for low oil prices is low oil prices, the cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. In this instance NG is making it worse and so if the Green agenda.
DYOR
I see the new narative is out for this month. You suggesting C2 isn't happening this year at all? I was expecting well to all done in 21days from spud. The word I'm looking for is deflection.
Its not too expensive to pick up deals. The deals that others are going for are larger and better. We might have leases with oil but its not enough to have several partners in. Otherwise we would have partners lining up. Since price crash after 2016 then covid drop every investor out there knows how low it can go and wipe you out.
However you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear!
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/NTOG/acquisition-of-producing-assets-issue-of-shares/14672193
And Caballos Creek now looks cheap.
Lobsi, indeedy.
The oil market is cyclical. We go through phases where it is cheap to pick up unwanted assets: last year we picked up Caballos Creek, the Permian Basin Farm in and another 80 acres on the Cypress Farm In. All of those three assets would cost a lot more now. The delay on the Cypress drill last year was that they wanted to line up their land deals before drilling so that if it came in okay, they could move quickly. So that is what they did: NTOG had to pay its 32.5% share of the lease premium for the extra 80 acres. As a result of the extra 80 acres, NTOG has another couple of PUDs which gets included in the CPR.
I don't know but it might be that the delay on the Cypress 2 drill is that they want to line up another land package before drilling.
On the Permian Basin things might be about to get interesting:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/NTOG/permian-basin-farm-in-agreement/14691860
This now looks like a cheap deal. Note the recompletions and the PUDs: that gets added into the CPR in due course.
The phase we are going through now is where it is too expensive to pick up deals like Caballos Creek and so companies will turn to the their workovers, behind the pipe, reconnections and PUDs. The advantage of this stuff is that it is lower capex, quicker payback and lower risk. Work that makes no sense at $40 becomes very attractive at $80. Remember that Cypress and NTOG were happy to drill at $30/$40 oil.
DYOR
Thanks Helpful !
If you read these 2 paragraphs from the last update, Tunisia update is coming soon as funds are now in place
"
Nostra Terra has continued to assess a number of new opportunities, both in the US and beyond. In April 2021 we announced that we were in exclusive negotiations for a large parcel of acreage in Tunisia, a process that was well advanced before the recovery of hydrocarbon prices. These negotiations continue to progress well.
After the end of this reporting period the Company was able to announce a doubling of its senior lending facility to $10 million, an increased borrowing base, and a substantial boost to its reserve base.
"
There is a high chance they might announce this very soon and will add further to resources.
Opec has refused to increase production, and traders are now putting bets for crude to trade substantially higher
Most crude companies are trading in higher range and its only a matter of time for ntog as well...
Excellent news! I'm hoping for more C2 should be online by YE.
However this is not Rerversion and is not a phenomenon.
Its a "RECOVERY"...................which most stocks have gone through or are going through apart NTOG. We have gone backwards even with more oil and a higher WTI price. Our share price dropped 80% from 3p pre covid and we can't maintain a rise. Surely buy now we could have been back upto 2p at least.
The reason why we are is simply. Market maker knows we need money and we can only attract speculative investers (gamblers,grannies,& leprechauns). So the SP stays low at the sh!$ty rate. If sp was 3p/7p you would look twice at NTOG and do DD. Until we have 100% WI in wells and control everything. We will only be considered as a financier & facilitator (middleman, Mr 20%er).
Market maker will always knock our door and offer us a chance to raise funds ( do a placing becasue they have enough grannies in their tearooms) as they know when we need money , minus their 20%. This is how the game works.
So don't expect the SP to rise until CEO gives the nod or market maker has enough grannies to mug.
I don't "believe" anything.
Reversion to the Mean is recognisable phenomenon everywhere.
Even though the fossil fuel market is being corrupted the Green New Deal nonsense, it too will display Reversion to the Mean. The Mean will he higher than previously and move up quicker than otherwise.
As to the rest it is arithmetic. 84 bopd H1 AVERAGE production even though NTOG had three periods where some or all production was out. That means when it is all on line the run rate is a lot higher than 84 bopd. It will add production from 3 sources this year. Let's say 130 bopd at the year end and average price Q1 22 of $70. Do the numbers.
DYOR
Good post billy
Unhelpful called out and shot down in flames
RR. Or Lloy is more akin to reversion to the mean.
Not a share that’s bankrupt so to speak as to having no cash to fund itself at operating level.
Come on you, you don’t believe that.
With all your intelligence and you use mean reversion. Long and short of it you took a punt because you got a whisper from some one. Now locked in and trying your best to stay positive live we all are.
There’s a poster on here from the south west who got it right. He said back in 2012 from memory to me, “ you know NTOG is good for 20%” boy was he right all these years later.
You and I know NTOg isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.
Some of all our assets can’t command a value. As what our CEO sees in them others may not. It’s a speculative buy/value.
Seeing as you want a lesson.
In life, mathematics and investments, there is a thing called Reversion to the Mean.
Shares and markets can be over-priced or under-priced for long periods of time but eventually they revert to the mean. In most cases, the mean would be fair value or true value.
One way to invest is to pick sectors which are under-priced and within that sector shares which are under-priced. Oil was under-priced in 2020. Oil companies are still under-priced. NTOG is under-priced in that peer group.
The Reversion to the Mean has started but we are still at the early stages.
DYOR
Good post LMFAO!!!!!
Ps wti needs to be $85 before it makes a difference to us.
You are looking at the global market with the expectation that if the price of oil/gas goes up then so do the profits for oil/gas producers. Trouble is with NTOG, when the price goes up the NTOG share price does not. Why do you think this happens?
DYOR - Dump NTOG
Usual nonsense. Avoid the point. Where are the calculations wrong?
I drive a 4.7l Jeep so when the price of oil/gas/petrol goes down does this mean that the value of my Jeep goes up?
I thought not.
Just jesting mate and no malice intended.
Not pumping anything. Read the half year report and look at the calculations. Where am I wrong?
The European Natural Gas price is the equivalent of around $230 a barrel. OPEC reckons that the substitution effect oil for NG is worth about 500,000 barrels a day.
Oil is heading higher: the debate is how high and over what period of time.
Goldman Sachs says $80 Q4 21 and $100 for 22. The Omanis and Trafigura reckon it is going to $200.
Not something I am pumping, all that information is out there.
This the Green New Deal gig coming home to roost.
NTOG is producing now not 12 months down the road and it can add production pretty quickly.
DYOR