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I think his buying can only be a positive but I’ve given up speculating, price has fallen back and I’m now at break even so I’m fully loaded and will keep some cash for any hard news…
Those warrants are good until Nov I believe - he has time, if he wants to. Personally, I'd exercise the lowest-price ones first, not the ones closest to expiry, and he hasn't exercised all the 15p ones yet, so can't read too much into that IMO. That said, I would agree that £1 seems like a stretch, but we'll see how it goes.
Phones on blink.
Figure it is not quite correct but far more so than using the existing number to make calcs like most were doing . I would imagine it will probably equate to around 210-220 m shares and would use 220 m shares for calls personally. Obviously depends on the offer price and any further dilution.
To get to 888 £1 plus we would need an offer in excess of £220 m in an asset sale scenario. Still no calls for the costs that come with the process. I posted a link to royal rd asset sale for less than $$30m which paid out between 4-5 m from memory to Nicaraguan authorities from memory.
I have bought back in here for the sale and currently near b /e . Personally I cannot see holders seeing above 50 p and I suspect Mellon doesn’t either hence not converting the warrants closest to expiry.
So , when I have used the fully diluted number and divide into offer ut
E l, the deal is on a fully diluted basis. Say $150m . The exact price p share would depend how many warrants and options are in the money. I believe that the ammount of value above exercise price is paid out to holders, warrant and options cancelled and remainder is divided by no of registered shares . That is how I understand it.
Disappointed as thought today would give the SP a turbo boost! We need more news as without we will stagnate again!
Sorry, still thinking about this! Following on from my last post...
So that means the fully-diluted quantity is really something of a sliding scale, depending on the current SP (or takeover price). With a higher price implying a few more shares, and a bit more cash raised, but also a lower price implying a few less shares and a bit less cash raised. So it's not an entirely trivial calculation!
One last point - if the 50p warrants were taken up, they would return 50p per warrant to CNR, so for a completely fair fully-diluted calculation, you need to not only sum up the total number of shares, but then also offset those additional shares against the extra funds they would bring in. Those funds could of course be simply spent on one thing or another before sale, but I would expect any remaining cash the company held in it's bank account, after all costs, to also be distributed to shareholders, along with the sale proceeds (in theory - of course we still don't have much insight into concrete specifics).
Thanks for that, I think we're more-or-less on the same page. Options are granted annually, and I believe have similar restrictions as warrants. They're not broken down on the website though, unlike warrants, so are harder to track.
Https://www.warrants.com.sg/eduhtml.takeovers
I believe that all warrants and options are cancelled and any it of the money we simply cancelled and payment is made for anything above the face value for those in the money. So 50 p shares would not be viable if Cnr were taken over for less than 50 p. However if like 888 you believe £1 is incoming then it would be more sensible to convert the 50 p ones that will expire in Nov this year.
E l , when I look at the deals for calibre and continental they are both on a fully diluted basis. Very unlikely that Cnr would be any different. Usually any restriction here has been for first year. That certainly won’t affect 50 p ones that expire nov this year and I doubt very much the ones expiring next year. In the event of an asset sale, the bod are in control of that scenario. I have looked into it previously but was a while ago and believe that all outstanding warrants are converted at pos but I could be mistaken.
Gavlaa very good point. Especially with investing in small caps. Some of the research on the AIM suggests you'd be better off investing your money in the local Ladbrokes!
CeGamer good post
"My hot take having been here for the best part of a decade is that JM doesn't lose, MC is collateral damage, with his "having made a few bob" no more than a "nice to have", and PIs are nothing but a peripheral annoyance."
But surely we all accept that investing in stocks makes us peripheral annoyances to the BoDs of companies other than for the money they rinse out of us to pursue their dreams. That's just the deal, and if we happen to make a bob or two, then happy days.
*applause*
We hope for 1) however history tells us it’ll be 2)
You mentioned that the options and warrants would be "honoured" in an asset or company sale. I'm just trying to get to the bottom of that statement.
I'm unaware of any rules specifically affecting options or warrants in a sale process, so my initial assumption would be, nothing would happen automatically. If individual holders exercised them before the sale, then fine, if not, then they'd be lost. Do you know different?
If there are no special rules, then a good proportion of the existing options and warrants cannot currently be exercised, due to the limitations on converting them - none in the first 12 months, then only 50% in the following 12 months, then the rest - that sort of thing. I don't recall seeing those kind of restrictions on the 15p ones, but the rest have them I think.
El, skimmed through all these posts. Re read your post and we pretty much seeing same . Sorry what was your question?
I'm just keen to know if Jimbo and MC THINK that they're doing a good job with this company/asset, or not.
My hot take having been here for the best part of a decade is that JM doesn't lose, MC is collateral damage, with his "having made a few bob" no more than a "nice to have", and PIs are nothing but a peripheral annoyance.
Logically speaking, this was a poor, POOR investment for LTHs. Holders HAVE been lied to repeatedly, doesn't matter how you spin it - we were assured we'd be producing by two years ago. Company direction has changed on multiple occasions with approach flip flopping and actually we're yet to see any sensible reasoning behind this.
Either we're going to walk away from this 1) looking rather silly for all the complaining, but with fat pockets; or 2) rather silly for all the waiting in vain, and broke after the BOD have got theirs.
Honestly speaking, and looking at historical behaviour, I wouldn't be surprised if this sale spilled into 2024 or even later - it's a complex process, and we're now in month 7 following a pi55y RNS in March. PIs getting hammered in the interim is inconsequential to Jim - so what's the rush? Everyone here behaving like these guys are your friends, acting in your best interests, is misguided.
Slowly, there is an obvious explaination. Cnr needs cash and it is more sensible for him to convert than have a further sp destroying cash raise. It’s not bad news and not a negative just probably not the big positive that some want to imagine.
Simms, it’s what it is , a cash raise.sale DEFINITELY close . Come on then what exactly does that statement mean????
Re Mellon taking to production, So, why didn’t he ? After all it was going to be producing 100 k oz last year. Why waste yet another year. The explanations are in the original rns in November not jackanory.
Hi Sein
My thoughts are similar to you, but I see the buying of warrants as a positive. Realistically why would Jim exercise at 50p if he can at 15p?. It's not to say we wont be sold over 50p, that being said 40p is the magic number for me as that's where Mark's bonus starts.
It wouldn't surprise me if we see 25p today..............
I'm aware of the history. Your post does not answer my question.
E l, it should be obvious that when you factor in mellons outstanding warrants and options he is on the verge of takeover notification so he has fully extended his cheapo shares with the Nov early Christmas bonus. While holders were offered the opportunity to buy for 1:6 , Mellon had 16,666 m on tick at a rate of 3:1. For a two month £1 m bridging loan.
Agree slippery , best option for immediate cash. Just remains to be see how far this takes us.
Without wanting or intending to put a negative slant on this ‘positive news’, are you really surprised ISAP? I have never known a share to be so contrary to expectations! Anything that should have lit the proverbial fuse has failed to do so! The wait continues……………?
"Whether Cnr is sold as assets or as company , options and warrants will be honoured."
How do you know this? What exactly do you mean by "honoured"? For starters, there are restrictions on exercising options and warrants - they're spread over 2 or 3 years typically - I can't imagine those restrictions will be dropped?
Awax, what makes you think that £1 m takes us well into 2024. What it says to me is we were getting towards the end of our cash runway . Whether Cnr is sold as assets or as company , options and warrants will be honoured.
This is just over a third of his 15 p warrants. However there are 50 p warrants that expire on 2 nov 2023 which Suggests to me that perhaps 50 p warrants are quite likely not viable. All will be honoured in takeout , but hey that could be at 40 p.
Still this is better than a new dilution for sure and may see another one in a few months . Just a sign of needing more cash. Not surprised somebody got a terse reply when asking about cash recently tho?
Cnr raised over £ 3 m last summer and over £4 m from Nov to dec. we had £2.2 m at end of Dec. £1 m is short term finance.
Two Chinese companies failed to pull off a deal for Shg because they didn’t offer enough. Just saying. Nothing is guaranteed but I would imagine a deal coming together. Not convinced of a bidding war etc, imv that would already of started. There still seems to have been the same number of site visits for many months as far as I know.
I imagine a return in the 40s as best case for us and personally looking to offload a good ammount on any offer news.
Good luck