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Sorry a glitch in the matrix
" The Moroccan Gov AND what gas CONTRACT PRICE PER BOE AND WHAT THEY WANT TO PAY , is what IS HOLDING THINGS UP ( they will have real influence in that imo), If you add in this onshore.....IT ALL SEEM VERY CONFUSING. You couple that with the lack of clarity on financing the other pillars no wonder the market is cautious on share price valuation!
I am in to deep now 😂
Rgds Sft
Hey NorViking,
I really can't see onshore holding up the Anchois development, but in saying that it depends on what either the farm in partner and / OR CHAR management are trying to do.
BDC comments are informative in that I did not relook at the EIA RNS and understand the onshore inclusion, I just assumed due to the time scale present for onshore that it was not. It had obviously therefore been something that the board had been working on for some time.
I just remain rather stressed on cash runway and further dilution, but we are all signed up now so are very much in their hands.
But I agree on your "if", but surely the whole of Anchois, Lixus and Rissana do NOT have to be agreed in one deal: Operators have HAD a ruthless reputation in the past , but having worked for them for over +20yrs, the days of intent of bankrupting contractors (or partners) on finacials and delays on payments are very much long gone....so s it down to CHAR (their financials) and what they are trying to play.
The Moroccan Gov what gas, my bit is what they want to agree to pay ( they will have real influence in that imo).
CHARs business modle imo is flipping difficult to follow.
GLA
Rgds Sft
Henry,
I think that's a bit nit-picky. They stated ballpark production for Anchois as being 2024/25 throughout.
Sunfit - if onshore derisks the Risanna licence, then I do wonder if a partnership deal might now be contingent on Chariot going ahead with the onshore drill, getting the results, and then sealing a deal to encompass offshore + onshore?
I hope not TBH as I'm running out of Godot patience!
Hello BDC
Drill result webcast: DW stated 2024. MW stated 2024.. moments later AP stated 2025.. all prior to anyone knowing about onshore. If they can’t get the projected years right between the BoD in an investor webcast, what does that say about the credibility of the investment case to insti’s
Surfit,
I don't think Chariot or Morocco see it like that. The processes don't need to be so separate as you have stated them to be.
For example, the EIA RNS states onshore and offshore environmental and social baseline surveys have all been conducted and the EIA covers all aspects of the development including future wells and offshore infrastructure, the onshore Central Process Facility and link to the GME pipeline.
I've often mused on here as to whether the onshore would be included as part of a greater farm-in/partnering agreement for the whole of Rissana.
If the onshore, following exploration, is deemed commercially viable – then it just makes the entire Licence area more valuable.
Remember if the onshore, following exploration, is deemed commercially viable, its CPR, FEED, Environmentals, FID then (secure financing) Sanction, equipment pipeline and contractor procurement and build....all in a year? Can't see that imo? Hence me agreeing with NorViking and others now.
It could be as Jim alluded that onshore derisks Rissana due to the geology, how this all marrys up into ONE all encompassing RNS will be intresting.
Rgds Sft
Saw that flash up and thought it might be the news we are waiting for. How have I not learnt by now!
I suppose (hope), once they have signed the gas contracts and then the farm in, in theory they can then secure creditors to get them across the line.
I still feel (again hope, in trying to understand the finance logic) AP gone down the previous share raising route due to his previous experience with creditors in his old mining company, that he left over extended?
@ BDC is that to production? They have to strike onshore first of course, and have money to get there.
Which as NorViking and others ( me too now) feel will be all packaged in one?
Rgds sft
AP underwrote some of the placings himself to the tune of $5 million. Quite a ballsey move for someone who's not aligned with shareholders wouldn't you say? ;-)
2024 for onshore & 2025 for offshore.
Fantasy land if you think AP is aligned with PI’s.
He could have turned his shares multiple times over the years. Sinclair was on BoD and it declared that he managed the AP family investment. This could be taken off AIM at a flick if they decide to take this private and AP can still profit like wise. All the talk about the multiple visits to the offices are just that. Why wouldn’t the industry be keen to understand their target / exploration /results. Does not mean they have financial interest in Morocco. Char have mis lead PI’s just as the institutions were mis lead over Janus. In the famous drill result webcast, the BoD were quoting different years for production. DE stated 2024. AP stated 2025. What institution would take that as a serious investment plan. They are winging it.
Ps that's not to say if AP had NOT invested, it may well have gone under but its been the consistent share placing that to date has kept the company solvent.
As others have said the 6% ers (2×) have come in with investments, so AP and the board have sold them something.
They could have come in on a credited loan or bond but the bought a pice of the dream just like us 😀
GLA
The 2x RNS's must be close. The farm in RNS will determine how the gas project(s) will be funded and give an indication on how much spare cash will be left to support the company untill there is a revenue stream comming in rather than out.
Then we will see if the market re valuation see's what we hope for I.e. the board still need prove they can derisk the current potential for further capital raising via share placing.
Is that why JOG dropped back? Was there farm in capital sufficient to not only pay for the development but keep them solvent to reach income????
Genuine question?
GLA, follow the numbers is my opinion.
Rgds Sft
I was thinking of the annual recompense of $750, 000 salary and share options.
Information Reference: CHAR report from Simpley Wall Street
Rgds Sft
With approximately 87,500,000 shares I am not sure I would consider that as giving up surfit as a 50p offer would give him a quick £43,750,000 smackeroonies and free up time to spend on his other ventures, of which there seem to be a few 🤷♂️
AP not going to give up on his cash cow that easily 😂
Rgds Sft
Well as you know Ian I am no expert! And others could advise much better than I could, but in my personal opinion, yes, a £1 is pie in the sky.... sadly.
My "gut feeling" is if a take over was to happen we would be extremely lucky to get close to 50p. Obviously I would be very happy to be completely wrong😉
Well KB I'd settle for £1 also but is that a little optimistic?
I am not sure what you mean Ian by, "amazing piece"?
KB ... I wonder what inspired that amazing piece?
Harbour Energy "take over" at a £1 and we would all be very happy......(well most would)😁 what an early Christmas present that would be 🥳🍾 🤪
Here's hoping that vet's crystal ball was right all along, it just needed a little calibration, as a few weeks out is still pretty close for the old crystal ball gazing, and that Nor's gut feeling was also correct and it wasn't just a touch of indigestion😁
Speculation about potential suitors (farm in/merger/acquisition) has died down on here. Worth a read of the latest (29 Nov) Trade & Ops update from Harbour Energy (HBR) who are actively pursuing options to support their strategy “to seek to build a global and diverse oil and gas company”.
You heard it here first ;)
Yip Veteran,that would be a much better position for us to be in if they had done so. Gooner,im inclined to say that they have another 2 weeks,as realistically they said coming weeks and if we get news within this time frame its likely to be 5-6 weeks,then technically they have done so. I never took the " coming weeks" as within 1-4 weeks time,it's Chariot after all...Oh well December lets be having you👍
I think we will get news before Christmas, even if it is pre drill news. Going forward they need to learn under promising and over delivering is better for the share price.
Chariot may yet deliver their defining company making news for all just in time for Christmas.
May be the best reason to be jolly…. lalalalala la la la