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Analytical: Did you hear the potential tonnage of 1 of Bird's co's in NW Zambia chasing the WESTERN FORELANDS?
5bn tonnage potential [of rocks] and I recall the % copper is also good. In this interview, 2 spoke on the potential which must be from the size etc. Colin Bird let the two consultants speak as Lemon had the licence to hand to Bird.
A/c to Market Screener, Mr Bird has a total of some £1.9m in the 3 co's chasing the Western Foreland copper.
Anglo American is so keen and think its important to issue a statement to press on their Zambia drill at the North West.
Mr Bird did not elucidate much of the geology except to say, they need to drill deeper. This could mean that historically, like most old digging, they only did the SURFACE deposit? That is the idea I got from the Sunday Roast interview AFTER the Christmas interview which only talked about the First Quantum JV with 1 of his co's.
PLEASE MR BIRD, CAN WE GET AN INTERVIEW AS TO THE GEO OF XTR'S NEXT DOOR LICENCE TO KOBOLD.
NEXT TO KOBOLD? Ah, everyone will be watching - I am quite sure Mr Bird knows if THE XTR LICENCE NEXT DOOR TO KOBOLD [Bezos & Gates] IS ON TREND and where the old date shows it is the SAME mineralogy as KOBOLD's.
Zambia targets set by the president, and the influx of capital from sovereign nations, majors etc is improving things. All good…
Ana. In these countries it can be a problem with people moving in just to demand pay offs. Unfortunately political and environmental factors are making mining very problematic and deterring investors. Rio Tinto now have their share of issues in Mongolia. Hopefully Zambia can avoid them.
Manica is nowhere near the affected region. And should the region be affected (extremely unlikely), then XTR would be hit as the Chinese can just walk away. Political risk is always a problem in the region as it is in South and Central America, DRC etc etc.
Flipper, I think you hit the nail on the head, the zinc pit was a known pit, and reading back on the history it looks like the workers were miffed that local’s dwellings had been placed next to the zinc pit knowing it to be so which resulted in workers losing their jobs. Some dwelling owners had new ones built for them away from the site, some complained and stayed put. The fact the mining was put on stop but has since been reversed with a new mining license and mining in full flow tells you who was right and who was wrong, Cb was right to buy a small very high grade pit. I have not written it off although I have it valued at zero for now.
I will give you the link and ref to check: "Is state raids town as TOTAL plans LNG return."-Bloomberg, 2 days ago.
[2] "How terr...threatens the future of Mozambique."-GIS Reports, 2 Nov 2023.
I listened to Mr Bird but I dont think he wanted to spell it out given it is in the news. So, unless one is prepared for a write off, then perhaps the sale into millions was the best outcome which is a credit to Mr Bird ie he could sell it.
I am not an expert in Africa and the environment but all CEO's of co's are aware of the day to day. Right now, Zambia is flooded and awash with money and world stage due to KOBOLD.
Anyone NOT wanting to go on to Mr Bird's patch [Kiwara sold to First Quantum is nearer to Anglo now in Zambia but Ango is NOT NEXT DOOR to KOBOL] of Zambia , then at least they know what is going on. Why Zambia ? Majors are all looking for Tier 1 copper prospects and they were clambering over trying to get the WESTERN FORELAND NEXT OR CLOSE TO KAMO BUT FRIEDLAND in the end did not farm it out OR SELL TO BHP. Ivanhoe did the drilling themselves and now KIKTOKO is another Tier 1 find. Yes, the COPPER gold rush has started once KOBOLD made WORLD NEWS with the big copper hit.
Folks dare not post on this forum and even on the other forum, it is so coded , no one know what the overall story is. I came to post in the hope that Mr Bird will tell us more on the XTR licence and WHAT IS THE HISTORICAL DATA . Will Mr Bird sell the XTR licence on to a major? Just asking but I dont think Lemon will be pleased given they could have sold it to a major themselves. DYOR. NIA. Thur, 15 Feb 2024.
Yes , lastly I have read views on XTR but neither here nor there will elicit a sale or exit strategy given NO MAJOR IS INTERESTED IN TINY OPERATIONS AND WILL ONLY BE INTERESTED IN A POTENTIAL TIER 1 . EVEN TO JV, they are NOT interested if it is not a potential Tier 1. DYOR. NIA. My view only. Now, everyone can take courage I have been brave enough to post ---so, if shareholder, do post. Please dont chide me. Thanks.
One can read what is happening and therefore Mr Bird's decision to sell up for millions could be seen as the right one. Others may disagree but better to have a bird in hand and all that at this time of that country's history which one can read and well known? But each to their own.
BUSHRANGERS
There is a weekly rating of co's hitting copper grades and lengths. Recent ones I have seen on the open data are those with 0.2% copper grades but longer intercepts. So, yes, not ideal but that is how the geology turned out. However, knowing Mr Bird's style [Chair of XTR], he will have more of the historical data and their own geophysics etc to be able to market it at some time with the MOTTO: there is more left on the table for you but we [XTR] are not asking an arm and leg for it which may cause reluctance at any eye watering sum as norm. That is his Kiwara style and he said so recently.
Mr Bird said, "IT WILL BE A MINE. IT IS AN ACE." Ah, one for the cupboard but when, that is only Mr Bird's best kept
secret as in what soundings he has taken if any.
Thats all given I dare not post given the negative sentiment towards the co and Mr Bird.
From Market Screener:
Mr Colin Bird, Executive Chairman of XTR has a lot of money [personal shares] in all the 3 co's now in the chase in the Western Forelands. We are not talking small money here at least not to me anyway.
Last part [3]:
Mr Bird said it will NOT COST XTR shareholders any money as drilling XTR at NW Zambia will come from the sale of Manica.
I do not think at this time, Bird will start drilling the LICENCE South of XTR at NW Zambia as that is FURTHER from KOBOLD's [Bezos & Bill Gates private co].
First Quantum & Bird JV - that has the figures out and that was in the Sunday Roast interview over Christmas. Two of the consultants from Lemon were present and the potential is huge. First Quantum said it is Kamoa style type of geology.
Note: Colin Bird is going to be in the thick of the action with Anglo preparing to DRILL a $24m drill at the same place but much further from KOBOLD. BIRD IS NOT DEPENDENT ON SHAREHOLDERS FUND [AGM approved the sale of Manica re:XTR] nor is First Quantum and Bird's other co as it is on a carry and JV.
Rather quite exciting but obviously not for everyone. RISK , ah, as norm.
Majors will be watching Bird's 3 co's. DYOR. NIA. I thought I would post all I read all the forums and none appear to know what is going on in NW Zambia, the investment climate, the buzz at Indaba and the MAJORS trying to get in , inc BHP. All known in the market.
Ole shareholder. XTR prepared a piece called; "THE RACE TO WEST FORELANDS." It is about XTR near Gates, Bezos's Kobold that has had a VERY BIG COPPER STRIKE.
I will quote from "THE RACE TO WEST FORELANDS" [on Mr Bird's Twitter a/c ]: " LOOKING SPECIFICALLY AT XTR licence, it is SURROUNDED BY RIO TINTO, ANGLO AMERICAN AND KOBOLD , the American Al co financed by Bezos and Bill Gates. XTRACT PULLED OFF A COUP acquiring PRIME COPPER exploration real estate---------UNDER THE NOSES of its much LARGER PEERS in the Mining Industry." [The rest one can read about all the 3 BIRD CO'S that are in the Western Foreland trend and MUCH CLOSER to this trend than the majors like Anglo.
LISTEN TO THE SHORT CLIP BY ANGLO's JV partner , Nick von Schirnding who said: "HOME TO 3 MULTI-BILLION MINING OPERATIONS IN THE EAST" & "ONE OF THE MOST EXCITING...Drill program is finalising."
COLIN BIRD'S CO SOLD TO FIRST QUANTUM FOR US$260M.
It is renamed FMQ TRIDENT KALUMBIA and now legendary.
WESTERN FORELAND
3 WORLD CLASS TIER 1 ALL IN THE SAME PART OF NW. ZAMBLA.
"OUT OF 5, 1 WILL HIT THE JACKPOT"---Colin Bird, indeed given they are on the Western Forelands trend.
First Quantum has already done some work on their licence with JV with 1 of Colin Bird's co's [AIM quoted].
XTR is nearer Kobold and 100% owned by XTR.
Colin Bird's other co [Ivanhoe to the left at Angola]- no news yet but this is just below XTR, NW Zambia.
COLIN BIRD HAS 3 OUT OF 5 AS ABOVE. THE LEMON CONSULTANCY HAS DATA ON THE FIRST QUANTUM JV WITH BIRD'S CO AND ALSO ON XTR'S LICENCE, NW ZAMBIA.
Sorry, if it is not edited but trying to hurry. I
Hi James
There are different processes that can and cannot be controlled, toward bringing a deposit into an operating mine as opposed to running an efficient mining operation.
A start up is initially determined as a result of the geological processes that have been carried out along with environmental and social governance and all the other hurdles that simply have to be overcome first.
Generally most of the issues that can prevent a mine ‘toward’ getting its permits are outside of the companies hands and the due diligence that can be done at particular stages. Which is why there is a low success rate, it’s not often down to economics either.
The difficulty where Colin’s experience and skill set come into it is, with what can be controlled by the company that lie with how to keep an operating mine running whilst keeping creditors, partners and shareholders all happy and then you have the mines sustainability to consider on top.
Just as has been seen with Manica, although with Xtr subsidiary with a non controlling interest. It is Colin’s experience in mining that led to knowing when to walk away. He has spent his career running mining operations so that is where his experience and skills comes into it. I do understand your point of monetising in the first place though James but I believe there are no skill sets that can help overcome those hurdles. That is why this is such a risky sector to invest in.
The previous deal with KPZ had arguably soured for any number of the reasons that were previously touted on here that led to them being impaired. The company gave plausible reasons for Kalengwa and eureka but it clearly wasn’t a sound partnership in the end as KPZ were supposedly in financial difficulty. So it’s arguable if was down to poor due diligence or those projects were just not viable.
Ana, which comes back to Jamies point. There is no value attributed to Star Zinc. And I think the locals have a point about not wanting dynamite being used next to their houses (I accept in these countries people often put their house (shack) close by to get a pay off).
Hopefully Colin will start to get some good deals off the ground in his stable of Companies. But shareholders have the right to ask the question until that happens. And after saying how much Manica was worth after the AGM, then selling it for a much lower price a few weeks later ..................
That was from a Sunday Roast interview with Colin Bird over Christmas 2023. Who are the 5:
[1] ANGLO AMERICAN - already started drilling at NW Zambia [2 phases spending $24m.]
[2] FIRST QUANTUM -doing work on the ground [Colin Bird's co JV with First Quantum so its a carried %. Already, the potential figures have been discussed and First Quantum said from recall, it has the ...of the Kamoa-Kakula geology @Ivanhoe situated in the DRC known as the -------------WESTERN FORELANDS----------. This Western Forelands also stretches to NW ZAMIA.
[3] KOBOLD -This is also at the WESTERN FORELAND trend but in N.W ZAMBIA [the Bezos & Bill Gates vehicle that has STRUCK one of the largest copper hits and all over the mining world news. This is a PRIVATE co.
[3] RIO TINTO is nearer to Anglo but I have not heard anything yet.
[4] IVANHOE - Ivanhoe [Robert Friedland legendary fame struck KIKOTA , in the DRC, Western Forelands and it is a bit copper hit. Ivanhoe, has taken a LICENCE IN ANGLOA which is on the OTHER SIDE OF COLIN BIRD'S OTHER CO at NW Zambia.
[5] XTRACT RESOURCES: NW Zambia. This was discussed at a 2nd more recent Sunday Roast with Copper Lemon also present. XTR's ground needs to go DEEPER per the interview. Why did Copper Lemon, the mining consultancy give Colin Bird the GROUND ie licence for XTR --------CLOSE TO KOBOLD, then below XTR comes another Colin Bird co [next to this Ivanhoe is next to it but on the Angola side as there is no other licence left at NW Zambia] & then the First Quantum licence JV with another Colin Bird co? IT IS HOT GROUND and out of the 5, ONE WILL HIT THE JACKPOT, says Colin Bird.
ALL ARE ON THE WEST FORELAND TREND and IT IS KNOWN AS " THE RACE TO WEST FORELAND ."
BHP WANTED WESTERN FORELAND'S LICENCE NEAR KAMOA-KAKULA but I dont know what happened as to why Ivanhoe did not farm it out but drilled themselves at KIKOTO which was ANOTHER LEGENDARY HIT IN THE DRC.
From what I can see, Ivanhoe did not get to NW ZAMBIA, which is part of the WESTERN FORELANDS trend. ALL THE MAJORS ARE NOW IN NW ZAMBIA and huge investments going into the country. COLIN BIRD IS LEGENDARY IN ZAMBIA - he spent $20m on drilling and SOLD IT TO FIRST QUANTUM FOR US$260M. Per the Bird style, he will not spend without limit and majors may be reluctant to pay the eye watering sums so, he does just enough and sells on. THAT KIWARA has been renamed and NOW ONE OF THE LARGEST COPPER MINES in Africa [check 1st Quantum]. The Lemon consultancy could have sold the licences to the majors but they like Colin Bird for his upfront style in dealing -from the horses mouth.
I think the terms also would be better than from a bigger major.
BUSHRANGERS
From the style of the Kiwara, I now know Mr Bird's style. Glencore said NO NEW COPPER MINES will be built until copper is $15,000. Bird: "BUSHRANGERS-IT WILL BE A MINE. ITS AN ACE." Up to everyone to believe or not believe what Mr Bird said. When, who? Ah, he didnt tell me , a little ole sh
Star Zinc got off the ground, some royalties were paid, then the locals went ape about noise and the project was put on stop. Siege Zinc who had acquired the property, re-applied for a license and it was then subsequently obtained quite a while later - the Zambia Cadastre was also on stop for yonks. The question remains whether Galileo can get monies that were owed, and still are owed as Siege Zinc are now mining the Star Zinc Project and mining high grade zinc at that site. I hope the Cooper Lemon legal bod is in the mix. Either way there is no value attributed to SZ in the share price IMO, and Colin might think he has bigger deals to concern himself with - Kamativi (sell), and Zambia/Kalahari - for obvious Copper related reasons - where there is a likely sale (Luansobe Open Pit), a JV (Luansobe Underground), a JV (Shinganda) and like XTR - license in NW Zambia which is in demand for sure so who knows what could happen there!
https://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/copper.php
Jamsie, sad but true. Star Zinc (GLR) and other projects have ended in similar vein. MC, as CEO at Caerus was just as bad. The poor due diligience has been an ongoing concern for me. I just hope they get their act together. Also these projects normally require a higher copper price. And China isn't playing ball on that account.
May be in future with better qaulity projects and JV s with companies like Cooperlemon this might kerb his enthusiasm. Hopefully!
Hi Howezap
Either you have misunderstood my question or I didn’t ask it very well…..
But what expertise has Colin shown in being able to monetize small scale mines? To date these haven’t been at all successful (I’m no expect on his other companies but imagine this is true for all of them) and have just cost shareholders money. Don’t get me wrong I love the idea of making a sustainable company, but I dont trust the board to develop one (experience has taught me there will just be noise followed by a write off). Appreciate history doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes…..
For me better just to focus on Zambia (big stuff) and monetize BR (if possible).
Cheers
James
I think as a company and like any in any sector, there still needs to be evolution to grow. Small to medium scale Joint ventured, in line with its laid out strategy to mine and with the expertise and experience there is in the company (particularly Colin) is the one way they can take active control toward its evolution as a company. The larger exploration plays have that control taken away as are reliant on other parties desire to aquire them at a later date.
So equally there are no guarantees, but at least they can actively take control toward being a sustainable company.
It may not mean much to shareholders short term but sustainability is ultimately what any company doing what Xtr do will work toward. Xtr will continue with a successor so for CB to make rash decisions now that may have detrimental impact on the companies financial standing later after he has parted, would not be passed by the rest of the board.
James
I guess it all depends on what many think the times scales are to sell Bushranger. IMHO and possible CB, it looks like it will take too long for CB to be around to take the credit for a Bushranger sale and the firework display??
I think the cash grab and selling of manica supports the view that he thinks needs to be quick with next investment and time is running out.
I think his approach would be completely different if he was 10 or 15 years younger. To avoid ant misunderstanding I'm not supporting is approach just explaining why I think he is doing it.
Not often I say this Andrew, but I disagree with you
For me if CB wants his legacy then chase the blue sky, these small scale cash flowing assets are just a distraction to that and an opportunity to spread the team to thinly/waste share holder cash
James
What you are saying makes sense.
But If you had a very short time horizon then what would be the best approach then?
ImHO CB knows time is running out for him (81 this year) and he now is going down the route of quickest monetisation and sp appreciation rather than most sensible and long term approach
Hi Howezap
This is a genuine question, but what makes you think the company have the ability to monetize these small projects. Looking at the accounts you can clearly see several attempts to achieve this which have all ended in impairments. What makes this time different?
Wouldn’t Colin and team be better off focusing on the big exploration projects and monetizing BR, the income from the Manica disposal should support this without the need for dilution so I don’t see the need or the benefit (on risk reward basis). In short focus on the blue sky opportunities……..
Cheers
James
If these small mines can get working and running the ore. Will they just be mined for revenue or will there be ongoing exploration to increase LOM towards being sustainable for longer?
Any indications from GM or other?
Appeared from early indications that Kakuyu could see it being developed ‘toward’ a larger operation with mine longevity.
hi again iwto
there’s a reasonable assumption a sale of br will happen at some point, copper price is the ultimate driver of course. the economic model is currently going through the simplest and cheapest optimisation first i would say, of cap/op costs including further metallurgy to increase recovery rate as first round had an anomalous low reading from one high grade sample.
tomra ore sorting wasn’t amenable to the important higher grades that are crucial to have the most profound effect on the economic model as will ,
• reduce processing and operating costs
• reduce pre-production capital expenditure due to a significantly smaller concentrator
• improve concentrator recoveries due to higher feed grades
• generate more co**** dry rejects that are easier to manage
• reduce the size of the tailings dam due to less concentrator feed.
other sensor based tech is highly likely to be looked at as it can reduce concentrator capacity down front 20mtoa to 10mtpa, whilst we wait for interest rates to come down that will see fuel, power, materials etc costs all come down to increase the economic performance. there is still option to increase resource to nw so can’t rule out more drilling while we wait.
seems likely the buy back agreement was exploited as a marketing tool throughout as now it has been suggested that there is an inexpensive exit strategy as decision to mine to trigger the buy back process is not an option.
as for value, away from valmin a dcf model can maybe then be used, so with viable economics at conceptual study level, an acquirer should pay for what is in the jorc but will be largely discounted as the resource will not support ore reserves. only 50mt is indicated rest is inferred.
think that is a fair ‘objective’ view overall.
short version…. no one has a scooby doo