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Https://michaela34.substack.com/p/touchstone-exploration-seems-fully?r=1bwfai&triedRedirect=true
KS.
Current production prior to optimisation from Cascadura is around 37mmcfd.
Assuming Cas3 comes in and they subsequently move to Cas4, at a stabilised and conservation rate of 20mmcfd per well that’s 60mmcfd additional before moving to Pad B.
60+37=97mmcfd (circa 17k boepd) hence why I said 16k+ to further play it down.
SYD197, is production up nearly 50% by the end of the year not enough for you and that in my view is the baseline. Paul is not promising anything he can't guarantee (which is new) I believe the new wells have the potential to deliver much higher than this, they are talking about 14k by end of year but they have built the facilities to handle 40k, lets see how the drill programme delivers over the next 9 months...
All the bad news is out the way…..rest is just gravy
Canada perceived the yesterdays RNS better.
Not a chance of $3.50/$4.0 Henry hub price is $1.70 Today,
Paul bayy needs to concentrate on maxing as much gas as he can at the price he agreed To get the company moving forward
alligator, if you cannot trade, that's not my problem. sold 19k shares 8.20 am then around 2pm bought back with the same money 19,756 shares, freebies 756. if you cannot see this share will at least double in price and vastly increase production and cashflow which the markets only understands in the current climate. jesus looks at aim it's dire no one has any money to spend, shares make 10% without one trade. which is better 9% divi in another stock or stay here.
yes it's a **** market but for me l am confident in my investment choices.
So one day in the not to distance future TXP could be producing 200mmcf/d and getting paid $3.50-$4/mcf. Not all will be profit, I will let others do the maths.
NGL will be extra,
Other discoveries will be extra.
When PB mentioned the gas price in that previous interview we were at the time recieving less than the market price for our gas on our fixed price contract. However the Henry Hub price today is below what we are recieving so it makes absolute sense to maximise production now while we are getting above market price. We have less amunition in negotiations on gas prices than we would have had a few months ago.
There is an argument not to push for 200mcf, and PB has eluded to in one of his presentations. Th price they are being paid for the gas is less than it is worth. One of the offshore producers I believe got $4/mcf and industrial users on Trinidad are probably quite happy to pay that sort of price.
https://www.methanex.com/wp-content/uploads/MEOH-Investor-Presentation-May-2023.pdf ... page9
There are negotiations on going with Methanex, it may be that the contract price could be increased or a better contract price when the current contract expires? If you read the latest annual report, and read between the lines, there is a lot of negotiations going on, the current 20year methane contract runs out in September.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/methanex-corporation-provides-trinidad-tobago-121500487.html
PB knows he can get a better price for the gas, probably 50% more, and he just needs to wait.
"I still think 14k boepd will be conservative, I’m expecting 16k+"
How do you derive that expected figure, if you don't mind?
There he is Aligator ...you crack me up .
There are plenty of no brainers to come here hold in there ,I was hoping for the Stabalised results, there be coming ..along with cas 3 . We're asset rich .an funded
Small retrace today .
Soon TXP Sp will be like a coiled spring ...
Corpse, Given your ability to read this share (which has certainly eluded me and many others), what do you think this no brainer will do next?
So - absolutely no fqcking volume in Canada today. Which I guess is ok, since even though we had the annual report, it felt like a non-event (meaning, no surprises). I guess the impairment was an arrow to the knee, though hardly a surprise.
But as we've seen before, it doesn't take huge volume to unleash the beast - so I'm X'ing my fingers for the next releases to be great. PB certainly seems cheerful in the last 2 minutes of that interview.
And volume ignites this share like a rocket (or crashes, but I think we've hit ground zero already).
Also nice to see estimates for cash in 2025 go up. It's still a hope from me that we'll see shareholder return (be it buybacks or dividend - or both) late 2025 (Q4 or paid in Q1 2026). If that happens, I'll probably retire :D
Nope, said many years ago, going to have a drink with XM and have a tour and see some LTH,s
He's in Calgary, so it'll be a cowboy on a bucking horse. You should all go to Calgary Stampede once in your life, it's wild... LTH may hopefully be able to spend some TXP profits there as soon as this summer! ;-)
Sold first thing and bought them all back, l love freebies, no brainer share.
Hopefully Canada start mopping up at these crazy prices.
North selling by any chance. The quicker they f... off the better we will all be.
Great interview by paul and the drill to fill.
Bring it on.
What do you reckon that ornament is behind PB? A big nosed horse by the look of it?
100% Geldautomat. If I was on the board, I'd call PB every morning and ask him: "So when are we at 200 mmcf/day @ cascadura & what have you done to accelerate the schedule".
I bet he would 1) get sick of this question but 2) make some progress.
When Lee Iacocca took over @ Chrysler, every bugger who came to him with suggestions was asked "how does this impact our net profit". Didn't take long for people to get this focus and Chrysler got out of the woods.
So... "when are we at 200 mmcf? I hope you're not telling me, there's been no progress since yesterday...."
Yes, assuming 20mmcfd from each well, there is such a clear path to increased production and profitability. 1 well drilled, another drilling. B pad being accelerated.
News on 1st Coora well and Cas 3 probably week after Easter. Success at Cas 3 then onto Cas 4 spud. Cas 2 pressure was so good it "blew the lid off the well". So expect that will produce like ST-1 well (or better). Similar at Cas 3 could give us 90+ production with just ST-1, 2 & 3. Deep takes us over 100 and then we have Cas 4 and B pad wells. If TGXP pull their finger out they could hit 200 by year end. They should start upgrading the Cas A facility now really! Expect they'll wait until Cas 4 drilled before doing so. The market doesn't understand the value here!
Cas 2 News flow will catch the Market out, keeping topping up where possible..
Such an opportunity for LTH's. This should do 200% from here between now and mid 25' based on cash flow increase alone. They may also have success with further exploration that will increase reserves and send us even higher