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Royal Mail Share Chat (RMG)



Share Price: 446.10Bid: 446.00Ask: 446.20Change: 7.30 (+1.66%)Riser - Royal Mail
Spread: 0.20Spread as %: 0.04%Open: 438.50High: 452.60Low: 438.90Yesterday’s Close: 438.80


Share Discussion for Royal Mail (RMG)


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MrEMC2
Posts: 127
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:434.00
Berkshire Hathaway
12 Aug '14
But:

"Friday 4th August Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) reported its biggest quarterly earnings haul ever up 41% to $6.4 billion".

"Buffett's stock holdings are surprisingly focused: Berkshire's top four holdings account for 58% of his equity investments. If you include his $10.5b worth of Bank America (BAC) options that brings his top five holdings to over 60% of his book".

Buffett's total equity basket has a market value of $119 billion. The largest positions as of June 30th were Wells Fargo (WFC) at $25.4b Coca-Cola (KO) at $16.9b, American Express (AXP) at $14.4b and IBM (IBM) with $12.7b. The company also has the option of buying 700 million shares worth of Bank of America for $5b until 2021. On a current market value basis that makes the equity portion of the stake worth $10.5 billion (which actually dramatically understates the real value of the position).

Add it up and Berkshire's five biggest equity-like positions are three financial companies, an ancient position in Coca-Cola and IBM. Berkshire accumulated IBM over two years from Q1 2011 to Q1 2013 for an average of $171 per share. It's Buffett¹s only tech stock and one of his biggest losers on a relative basis, rising only 10% while the S&P has roared higher by at least three times as much".

Current share price is $198,000.00 per share.

So 1990 5,500 to 2014 198,000 = 36 bagger (excl inflation etc) - how many people have ever enjoyed something like that.
 
Stumbler
Posts: 638
Observation
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:429.00
View Thread (2)
RE: canary in the stock market
12 Aug '14
amd don't come back 'till St, Ledger day.
richard12345
Posts: 466
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:429.00
View Thread (2)
canary in the stock market
11 Aug '14
I have found a canary in the coal mine indicator for the stock market,

this is how SPD performs in September:

2007, 2008 price decreases in September,

2009, 2010, 2011, 2012,2013 price increases in September.

basically the price change in September is a warning for what's ahead for the stock market.

SPD is one of the best performing shares since the low of 2009, but it hasnt progressed in the last year,
all rocketings have then plummeted. despite profits increasing 18%
Doffer
Posts: 305
Off Topic
Opinion:Hold
Price:429.00
An important day .....
11 Aug '14
Well,

Last week saw us rise quite nicely in the tail end of the week.

What was this week going to bring.

A big fall today, small falls on-going or some more good news.

A small rise but as I said in another thread, now nearer to 450 than 400 - FACT

If we can finish this week in excess of 435, we should all be happy...

Small regular gains will suffice...
richard12345
Posts: 466
Observation
Opinion:Strong Sell
Price:429.00
misc further
11 Aug '14
so with Berkshire Hathaway, from 1998 to 2003 the yearly lows NEVER outdo any yearly high,
TRUE PROGRESS is only when a low outdoes a high, ie even the worst timing will profit.

1998 to 2003: highest low is 60600 (2003AD), lowest high is 71300 (2000AD)

basically stalling for 6 years.
Doffer
Posts: 305
Off Topic
Opinion:Hold
Price:429.00
View Thread (3)
RE: Funny pecular?
11 Aug '14
Stumbler,

The figures are inc of the UT figure ( uncrossing trade ) and is not an actual transaction.

Basically, balancing the daily business done book.

Buys did actually JUST beat the sells today...

An important day with the share price nearer 450 than 400....,,,,,,,,,,,...........
richard12345
Posts: 466
Observation
Opinion:Strong Sell
Price:429.00
misc
11 Aug '14
@tonycl

I have in fact now unsubscribed temporarily!

you said you have been investing for 30 years, Berkshire Hathaway is based on BUY AND HOLD AND DIVIDENDS.

but if you study say the yearly graph, which is for free on http://www.prorealtime.com BRK.A from 1990, you will see that the highs and lows progress EVERY YEAR UNTIL 1998:

year low high
1990: 5500 8350
1991: 6550 9125
1992: 8575 11750
1993: 11350 17800
1994: 15150 20800
1995: 20250 33400
1996: 29800 38000
1997: 33000 48600
1998: 45800 84000

so far almost outright rocketing, where the low is almost as good as the previous high,
and it is rocketing in the sense that except 1997, the low always outdoes the high of 2 years ago,

but look what happens from 1998 to 2003:

1999: 52000 81100 high down -3.45%
2000: 40800 71300 high down -12.1%, low down -21.5% NOT GOOD
2001: 59000 75700 high up +6.2%, low up +44.6%
2002: 59600 78500 high up +3.7%, low up +1%
2003: 60600 84700 high up +7.9%, low up +1.7%

net change 1998 to 2003: high up +0.83%, low up +32.3%

buying into his fund is highly speculative, buy in at the wrong time and you could wait several years to make a profit.

eg the high in 1998 is 84000, but the low in 2009 is 70100, so 11 years later it still hadnt fully outdone the 1998 high. the yearly lows only outdo the 1998 high from 2010 onwards.

basically his fund was a good investment year on year up till 1998, but from 1998 onwards it is HIGHLY SPECULATIVE, buy in at the wrong time, and you could wait several years to make progress, and your trade could go negative even 11 years later!

this is not a coincidence but is because of the huge increase in internet trading from 1998, and probably also because of things like short selling.

Buffett is the archetype of fundamentals and dividend buy and hold, and from 1998 onwards its basically a gamble. in particular its not crash proof, eg the high of 2007 is 151650, and the low of 2009 is 70100, which is -53.8% lower! his fund crashed! a 50% decline is an outright crash, 30% IMHO is an unambiguous crash, 50% is outright, and say 80% is a wipeout.

everyone quotes Buffett, but nobody quotes the data of his fund!

RMG's local max of 1st August of 430 is still holding, todays high 429.8, possible resistance at 430

@DoctorShares
P/E currently 3.35, published values of P/E are usually wrong. always calculate P/E directly.
with one of my other potential rocket shares, Woodford has bought in by some huge amount. each fund is in fact an indicator, there is one fund where if they buy in its a sell signal! Woodford seems to be a buy signal.
Stumbler
Posts: 638
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:429.00
View Thread (3)
RE: Funny pecular?
11 Aug '14
The figures have been changed completely and npw show very few trades with sells more than buys.ven more pecular.
Stumbler
Posts: 638
Question
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:428.20
View Thread (3)
Funny pecular?
11 Aug '14
Up 2p with some 145,000 more buys than sells?
Spottie
Posts: 84
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:427.90
View Thread (3)
RE: overbought offload some
11 Aug '14
Good point, Stumbler.

Richard, it is worth remembering that a major "problem" for Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway has been its own success - it is an absolutely huge fund. Regarding a buy and hold strategy, well, I think that it's somewhat premature to suggest that this approach has had its day. Terry Smith is a firm advocate and his Fundsmith offering seem to have performed rather well with a buy and hold strategy since he set it up in 2010. His model involves investing for the long term in a fairly concentrated portfolio of 20-30 shares. He does not go in for short term trading strategies. He and his team also "eat their own cooking".

I'm happy to hold on to my RMG holding and have been busy adding over recent weeks.



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