Richard, you talk sense! True , 6 & 7 year periods. Though not tested over long periods of time. Taking into account other factors ,yes probably a slump this year. However, previous crashes took some time before prices hit the bottom. If the bottom is this March coming, the pattern would be different this time.
disregarding fundamentals, the pattern is the market low will be in March 2015. the highs have been every 7 years 2000, 2007, 2014?, the lows every 6 years in march: 2003,2009, so the next low would be in March 2015.
that's not a prediction, just a pattern like the santa rally, its something to see whether or not the pattern recurs.
RMG is relatively undervalued, the market is relatively overvalued.
for general investment I'm going to wait till after the general election, the RMG annual results should be a few weeks after the general election.
I may buy some RMG shares in Jan, havent decided yet, will see how things develop.
but I'm not buying any other shares, I enjoy the lack of stress not owning any shares at the moment and am only putting a small amount of time on the stock market.
although RMG has large variance in the short term, I think the long term trend will be gradual, so there is no rush to buy in.
Surely people on here don't tell porkies////////////// Well I would never have believed that. Not all these multi-millionaire investors who get it right all the time.This news has shattered all my illusions.
What's your view on market crash in 2015? I remember you were talking about market crash a few months ago.
I posted this on another bb: FTSE will crash soon too - cannot say exactly when,but the higher it goes ,the sooner and faster it will crash. Remember 2000 and 2008 crash - possible 2015 or 2016 at the latest. Ftse down to sub 5000 or even circa 3000. Massive crash. Don't just take my word for it - do your own research,but know - this is not something the pros want the general public to know about it. Your money is their gain.
price drop could be because its tracking the FT100 which is down.
I try to only buy into companies that have good fundamentals, but the time and the price I go for are not based on fundamentals as fundamentals are only reliable over a timescale of years.
in the short term crazy things can happen, prices can go much higher or lower than they ought to.
this incorrect pricing you can call "divergence", and it has its own rules and causes.
the price and time I go for are based on my understanding of the divergence.
rather than asking "WHY is it diverging?" try to think about "HOW is it diverging?"
there is generally clear divergence both of RMG and the market generally, you mustnt try to deny this reality, but instead accept the divergence, understand the divergence and profit from it.
really you should be mystified when the price dynamics agrees with the fundamentals! because in this season everything is haywire.
expect the price to contradict the fundamentals and you'll have a lot less stress.
when I was tidying up, I found a table of sector P/E ratios from 1992:
Capital goods (178 companies) 16.19 Consumer group (187 companies) 16.32 other groups (117 companies) 12.13 Industrial group (482 companies) 14.74 500 share index (500 companies) 14.65
of subsectors, there are only 2 below 10:
electricity (16 companies) 8.19 water (10 companies) 5.73
and only 1 above 20:
Banks (9 companies) 46.33
this shows that mostly P/E ratios stay within a certain range regardless of era, and that they are usually above 10. so anything below 10 is low, and anything above 20 is high.
RMG P/E right now is 3.35, so this can only be very low. and it must eventually go above 10 over some years, this would equate to a SP of 12.74, I would estimate 7 years as a realistic time window. this is a fundamentals based estimate.
but should you buy or sell or hold right now, that is a tactical question, and I'm not telling you what I'm gonna do!
Can't vouch for anywhere else but in our office amazon account for around one in four or five parcels we get. Nearly all parcels of more than shoebox size are amazon. Their customers want royal mail to deliver their goods. They don't want some white van man hurling their goods over a fence without even knocking or leaving it in full view on the doorstep half an hour before it starts chucking it down.
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