Richard please dont try and give me advice and as for your thoughts on the markets crashing like the last reviver said Drivel and also do not compare RMG v RR AS ONE IS A WORLD CLASS BUSINESS and the other a beginner its like having a top 4 football premier league team against DIVISION 1 TEAM NO CONTEST mate
OK with Richards drivel asides if you are investing look to the retail sector Tesco are sweeping out the cupboard ahead of a new CEO meaning he will start fresh ( he starts Monday no he started months ago but wanted the decks cleared) the shares are cheap as the assets are large share price growth looks good, Avoid Salisbury they have weathered the storm well and have held some ground the real gem is Morrison an absolute steal at the current price get in now Rodneys and remember these boys and girls own a hell of a lot more land than RMG and if the price drops lower will become takeover targets (shares go up) M&S have had a terrible time they have now found their identity again with great lines in food and clothing I would bet the farm on a Chinese company wanting a big slice of them soon(they just took House of Frazier) so any way RMG future stock price id say £4.70 at best bad news could see uncle Vince's £3.30 realized so if you want to make money run against the crowd not with it
I think you have to give RMG the benefit of the doubt as regards the long term.
a baby is quite inept, but the baby could become a captain of industry or a political legend or sports star etc some decades later.
I think you need to decide the timeframe of your investment, what is the longest you are prepared to wait for profit or even just to outdo inflation?
for a given timeframe certain forms of methodology are necessary. shorter timeframes require much more work.
once you decide the timeframe, you then need to consider the realistic hazards over that timeframe, and what you will do if the hazards occur. I am 90% sure the stock markets will crash before end of 2015, realistically share prices can halve. if you are planning to invest long term, can you handle this?
it would be work to backtest this, but if your timeframe is 5 years, and the fundamentals are good, and the shares are not overpriced, you should progress over that timeframe.
the stock markets are going to crash, because they will be made to crash, and for long term investors its better to buy in at the low after a crash. that is where the super rich make their wealth.
short term investment is about temporary divergences of price and fundamentals, where you are waiting for the fundamentals to convert into price.
RMG at the moment is a real classic, for instance the 500 million euro loan must convert into extra growth, so MUST convert into improving price, assuming they are competent. its about 400 million pounds, which could eventually convert into a 10% increase in the share price.
disregarding the loan note, there is a major divergence, but the actual timeline for RMG is elusive, I think the fundamentals will be permanently converting to price improvements by Jan 2015, just beware that the markets could meanwhile crash and its not clear how the RMG price will fare. I think the price wont progress sustainably until sometime after the next interims, but I need to see what happens after the scottish referendum first and also SAYE.
as this site is all about opinions at least you are honest in your assessment on RMG and being a short term investor has a vision on what you want so good luck ,as i said im in it for the long haul but not with RMG so i hope you profit from your opinion
sold out today, my theory on 450 has held: the days low has never gone above 450, although recently the price did go above 450, the low didnt and the maximum low was 26th aug at 448.6
for progress, the most basic indicator is progress of the days low.
as the original trade was an error, I decided to close the trade and lost about 13 quid at approx 443.6, waiting for the price to go higher would only have been an extra 4 quid, the effort micromanaging this wasnt worth the reward. should have sold out yesterday.
if wrong and the day's low ever goes above 500, I'll rebuy a small permanent insurance eg 300. if correct, then I'll be 29 quid better off rebuying at eg 400, I'll consider an insurance trade at 400, but havent decided. 400 is healthy long term price.
500 is the midpoint between 400 and 600, and 450 is the midpoint between 400 and 500. I think the round number theory is robust. maybe when the price eventually rockets in some months, perhaps sometime after the interims, it will also head to a round number. 500 is basically the indicator of sustained progress.
I think the price now is headed towards 400, and could reach the 363 I mentioned, perhaps 350 as a round number.
@ARSENAL17 german engineering is high quality, eg I have some excellent Bosch and AEG products, eg AEG washing m/c which is above the energy efficiency rating system and should be A++++ but the rating system only goes to A+++. and BMW are clearly engineering excellence.
however, dont confuse german engineering of large machines with small things, german society, german workers, the german postal system, the german govt etc.
eg long ago we had a Bosch cordless phone, and the engineering of this was very drab. But I have other Bosch products which are exemplary. I have used the german postal system in Germany, and didnt use the local postbox because you could see the letters overflowing at the top
german workers always wear dungarees! its so twee, and invariably collect antiques as a hobby. the drab reality is different from the superhuman myth
germans dont work any harder than brits, they work less, but they have healthy group communication, unheard of here. any work is preceded by a group conference, where all opinions are incorporated into the action plan. they have a group mentality. For success, discuss + listen more, work less
I wanted to buy a screwdriver in Germany and could only find these at Bauhaus, similar to B&Q, all were "made in Germany" and rubbish, they were chromed and the chrome soon scraped off. whereas in Britain screwdrivers are usually from the far east and 100x as good as german ones. Also the main batteries there are Varta which are mediocre. german multiplugs dont have individual switches. Britain is ahead in many respects
german instruction manuals are factually incorrect!
please dont give me any advice on this company as i keep saying it has a long way to go to convince long term investors that they can succeed,i keep saying a modern workforce is good for any business this company has to prove that along with the dreaded Pension Fund and as i said they have it all to prove ,plenty of dead wood in RMG TO GET RID OF
...while you two are beating each other about the head with irrelevant conversation RMG has reached 450 and now seems to be in decline. That is much more interesting than Anglo/German competition. 450 was my objective when the price languished around 400 and below. Now that I know about SAYE I sense that it might be headed in that direction again. Richard, your theory on price I am starting to appreciate. Arsenal, with your claimed wide experience you might do well to keep an eye on this share and be rational rather than political with your judgement. The SAYE scheme is clearly an important if not pivotal part of staff relations at RMG. Somebody somewhere is going to make this work and keep RMG out of the pages of Private Eye leading up to the election. One final comment - the Germans are better than us at labour relations and SAYE could be a progressive shift for a very big UK company. Over to you
What a load of Rubbish you have written i dont know what you do for a living but with all that bitterness about Germans you sound like a postman who has been told to modernise in his approach to work in the uk ha ha. the Germans manufacture Quality what does the RMG do ,deliver post at 4pm likes striking and wanted everybody else to pay for there pensions ,i know where i would rather work
many people and countries are in awe of Germany, but I have spent a reasonable amount of time in Germany and the grass ISNT greener, germans are actually not harder working!
most german higher level people finish work at midday, and generally are lower calibre than their british equivalents. in particular british GPs are vastly better than german GPs. better trained and more capable. german hospital doctors are generally good. but the personal doctors are absolutely hopeless verging on incompetence.
german workers arent more efficient, but are more sophisticated than british workers. the german way of doing things both for manual work and higher level work is to have a group discussion about the work to be done. this will also include the customer. this will include more senior people as well as more junior people, and anyone can present their perspective, its a bit like a forum discussion. the group needs to arrive at a consensus, and this is what is done. they do something that is ALIEN to britain, they LISTEN!
whereas the british way is more dictatorial, where the workers are deaf to the customers, and the higher level people are deaf to the lower level people.
also the general german system is not efficient, Germany is the most burocratic country on earth, where even school reports and baptisms have to be reported to the central burocracy. also everything in Germany is unnecessarily complicated, there is a general lack of simplicity and clarity. in Britain, there is the idea of plain english, of simplicity, of clarity, these are ALIEN ideas to Germany. in particular most germans do not dabble with investment, its partly because the german investment jargon is totally bland and confusing.
Germany has mostly been unscathed by the financial crisis, not because they are good investors, but because they DONT invest! also german interest rates are pathetically small.
did you know that most german shops dont accept credit cards, and most german shops open at 10am!
hard working! hah!
also most payments in Germany even on the internet are not by plastic, but are via "uberweisung" you have to fill out a bank transfer note on paper with pen, and hand this in to the bank. criminals were in fact pilfering these from the bank machines, because of the PATHETIC engineering. eventually they designed an unpilferable system.
if you buy online from german websites, you have to do a bank transfer to the webshop, and they have to check with their bank that the money has gone through, before they despatch.
efficiency! THE GERMANS ARE PATHETICALLY INEFFICIENT.
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