Royal Mail will this week face a stormy shareholder protest when the company holds its first annual meeting since its controversial privatisation. The 500-year-old company is likely to face questions about the £1.35m pay package awarded to the chief executive, Moya Greene, and its warning that the universal service obligation - the pledge to deliver to every address in the country for the same price six days a week - is under threat. - The Guardian
when I said 466.1, I made a mistake that should be 463.3, the all time lowest local minimum was 19th July at 476.6, subtract 13.3 to get 463.3. once the daily high (labelled "High:" near the top of this webpage) is below 463.3 I am selling everything. Friday's low was 459.3 ("Low:" near top of this webpage) which is 0.86% lower.
what I think may be underfoot is that they will manipulate the price to below the IPO amount in order to say "told you so" and to fill their boots. possibly selling off the government share to achieve this.
but my main methodology is to judge lows reasonably well, I dont want the existing recent lowest local minimum being outdone more than once. when I bought in, 14th April was the lowest local min, equivalent to 475. jun 19th it was equivalent to 463.3, and the next one will be 459.3 or less. so I have basically misjudged this.
ideally I dont want the daily high to go lower than the lowest local min "before" I bought in. this has already happened once. there isnt any right or wrong decision, it depends on what you are trying to do.
there is a saying "he who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day", I am preparing to enact this saying. I'll return to RMG when much more criteria apply.
with XAR I quit at 7.91 once I noticed that the local max was below the local min, and a month later the price plunged from 750 to below 550 in ONE DAY (-27%). I abandoned ship correctly. meanwhile I rebought in at just below 5.45, and I think this time I have judged right, its about 5 quid from breaking even.
XAR is a warning of what can happen, an excellent company with excellent fundamentals, yet some huge inexplicable plummetting of the price.
@ Spottie for your 4.6105 trade, what future criteria would you evaluate that as a success, and what criteria a fail?
eg a specific low price a fail, a specific high price success, neither = indeterminate. where a limit order will capture the high price. perhaps a time window at the end of which its in profit even by a small amount.
my cynical prediction is the price is going to go below 330, and that it wont move upwards significantly until 2015. when it does move upwards it will probably be phenomenal, but I dont have the funds for such a longshot.
perhaps government withheld shares for cynical reasons.
Hold Royal Mail amid French uncertainty: The 500-year-old postal service experienced another setback in its life as a listed company after it said French competition authorities had launched an investigation into the practices of its European parcel operation GLS.
Analysts from Espirito Santo estimate that if Royal Mail is found guilty of any wrongdoing, the fine could be as much as £160 million. Questor still believes that, for the long term, the dividend income remains attractive despite this regulatory interference. The news meant shares in the FTSE 100 postal group ended last week down about 1%.
Royal Mail should be able to weather the storm of any potential fine. Pre-tax profits are forecast to increase to about £480 million in the current year to March 2015, and to £575 million a year later. Royal Mail’s shares have fallen by 17% so far this year as competition increases and parcel volumes suffer a slowdown.
Questor accepts the share price may be weak for the next 12 months, but the long-term investor should focus on the growing dividends, strong cash flow and dominant market position of the U.K. postal service.
The shares currently trade on 13 times forecast earnings of 37p per share, falling to 11 times next year. Royal Mail at 471.7p. Questor says ‘Hold’.
Several contradictions and attempts at obfuscation here methinks! For example, you now contradict yourself by writing, "I didnt (sic) say economists are poor!" Really?
Your earlier assertion was, and I quote your very words, "its not a coincidence that economists are poor and ignorant people can succeed."
You then issued a simple challenge to "name some rich economists". I named three off the top of my head, including Warren Buffet (Masters degree in the field).
It's an irrelevant tangent as to why you don't seem to like Warren B. and the performance of his BH fund. So what? Is Warren B. rich or poor? Yes or no? It's an easy one to answer.
And as for Keynes and Scholes, well, they also invested their own money too (yep, "eating their own cooking") and Scholes (who is still aound, just like Warren B.) has actually made at least two more fortunes after LTCM.
But this is a digression..."name some rich economists". Was Keynes rich or poor? Is Myron Scholes rich or poor? A simple yes or no answer?
As the old saying go, "Knowledge is power", especially the ability to unlearn old knowledge and take on board new ideas - we call these paradigm shifts in science. And I'd be very concerned if, say, doctors weren't constantly updating their clinical knowledge and skills. Wouldn't you? Or perhaps, "ignorance is bliss"
I do so love your posts.
Incidentally I bought 5k worth of RMG at 4.6105 on Friday to top up a long term "bottom of the drawer" holding. I "eat my own cooking" too.
its basically gambling, the max in 2007 was 101.1, the low in 2009 was 44.82, DOWN 55.7% Buffett even says now that its better to use tracker funds than his fund. 2005 max feb, min sep. 5 years from 1998 to 2002 max was 1998. 5 yrs going nowhere. ditto 2008 to 2012.
you explain to me ANY methodology for selecting a share based on ANY economics theory. in fact if economics is so good for share trading, why not recommend some shares to buy based on this. or are you afraid of the recommendation failing?
I am not afraid of my recommendations being wrong, and some are wrong. so what?
anyway, recommend some share trades, and EXPLAIN what economics theory you used to select them.
I bought into the TA scheme BECAUSE they had a freebie version, and I backtested it and it worked on all my watchlist shares, I then bought in, which only cost about 20 quid, and made 1 trade a few months ago, and its about 9.3% in profit at the moment,
but this isnt any ordinary TA, it's a really obscure angle
I am an empiricist, if you give an economics argument for some share, and it works, then I'll accept that economics COULD work. But so far you arent recommending anything.
you quoted that "learning is no burden for a wise man", not true, if you are already learned, then learning a huge amount of further stuff IS a burden. I have a lot of graduate books from uni and some books would take more than a year to study. also a lot of what we were taught isnt in any book, most books are nonstandard.
in fact its a virtue to not know various things, discretion is the greater part of valour.
especially with the internet, which is a huge haystack of information.
its good to have expertise at something, but it is a hindrance to be a walking encyclopedia.
as suggested by many I think the price is being manipulated downwards, but I will wait till the daily max is below 466.1, which is a major long term minimum. I may sell out say in the last 30 minutes of trading if it looks likely the daily max will be below that.
maxima and minima are useful for not deciding too hastily, often prevents hasty decisions.
I now expect my exit criterion to be met, but will wait till that moment.
if a share has good fundamentals, and you have a lot of cash and time, you can just keep topping up for every step the price goes downwards. eventually the price must move upwards, and you then sell the lowest top ups when they make a profit. some of the top ups will be stranded, but you will make money meanwhile from the lower ones. I have no spare cash and prefer to diversify, so I am not using this at the moment, but RMG looks good for this methodology as it has large variance.
if you are obsessed with RMG, you can do this, eg buy 1000 at 4.50, 4.00, 3.50, 3.00, 2.50, 2.00, 1.50, 1.00, 0.50 budget: 9000 eg via limit buy orders. EVENTUALLY all will be in profit, in the shorter term the lowest ones move into profit. if and when the price reaches 9 quid, you'd double your money on ALL the trades.
when I have enough cash, I intend to try this out, and probably for RMG.
but I am quitting completely once the daily max goes below 4.661, I will then follow all my criteria before buying in.
realistically it could be 6 months before any rocketing, because the manipulation could take a month, and the big money to buy in could take 5 months.
if the price is manipulated, its for buying that takes months, and they will continually remanipulate the price.
4.661 = manipulation, so nothing interesting will happen for several months.
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