Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investors. Watch the full video here.
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As the election gets closer, is anyone trading on the basis of a change to housing policy which might affect the house-builders?
I don't like that bits but I like your contributions to the board and your investment approach. I would be grateful you keep contributing and share your knowledge.
After yesterday's buy back I make it £0.855/ share, but that assumes that the dividends that were 'attached' to the shares that were bought back pre-ex-div (£188 k) aren't added into the dividend pot. I now make the March 18 divi onwards £1.016/ share. All assuming that the buy back on 5/4 is the final one ever. Just to note, the first buy back totalled a touch over £21M, the second tranche so far totals £22M.
The buy back continues even .after the recent rise in the SP .... now at £31+ and they are still buying. I can not help but think that the boards major objective is to remove shares from circulation at any price ... seems like careful and prudent buying has gone out of the window -- why didn't they buy the lot at £28? And if the objective is to reduce the number of shares in issue regardless of price what is the purpose? Rather smacks of a group of folk who want to artifically raise the EPS at the share holders expense ... can't help thinking about bonuses that might be tied to performance related figures in turn tied to EPS ... Umm ... doesn't look good for us long term income holders I'm afraid ... anyone keeping a tally of what the next dividend is likely to amount to? Mike
I hope you will continue to post on ITV board as well.
I won't be the one to convince you as today's price move indicates there will not be bullish up moves in the next few days. It's possible BKG has developed an "island reversal" that depends on the next piece of relevant news. However, the fundamentals are solid as evidenced by their optimistic statement on 17th March.
Gosh it doesn't feel like the buy back was raiding the dividends in order to boost the share price in advance of this sell off at all! I was fairly neutral on the buy back in isolation, but watching a tumbling SP doesn't fill me with confidence that my interests are anywhere near the board's top 10 priorities. Convince me that I'm wrong and just grumbling at a red numbers day. Please :)
Keep chatting gents, as it must be correlated with the price rise. ;-)
I'd forgotten about the AIM exemptions not applying to porperty/investment companies ... still it was just an idea in passing really as the cost and the hassle of listing on AIM is not insubstantial. Back in the 80's I got my father into 'SPLIT' investment companies. Essentially these were companies set up with a preset life span and two classes of shares. One class had all the income, the other had all the capital gains. It was an oddity but suited my father rather well as he needed the income, whereas most middle aged investors wanted the capital gain rather than income. I wondered if I couldn't do something similar with us oldies keeping all the income shares, and our kids having the capital growth shares. If the windup date is sufficently short term then the value of the income shares is small and attracts little IHT. In the meantime the capital shares could be vested many years before D-Day and so avoid the PET problems. Of course the devil is in the detail and I'd both need to research it carefully and seek good knowledge/advice. Mike
IHT ... it's a mess isn't it? Kind of like a train wreck that you can see coming but there's not much you can do to stop it happening. I guess the most important thing that I/we've done is to teach each of our three kids how to invest and how to handle their money. Now I know that doesn't solve the IHT problem but it's very satisfying to see your kids making money out of what they've set aside from their own labours -- they are well on their way to having their own IHT problems to deal with. Basically for ourselves the best solution is to give the stuff away a good time before we die. Trouble is whilst I've constructed an investment machine that basically protects capital and provides a good inflation linked income, at the end there will be a significant investment pool that will drop into the estate. I/we are thinking and looking at forming an investment company with two parents and three kids as the shareholders ... if we created some preference shares then that would deal with the income side of things, and it might reduce the investment pool to 40% of what it would have been. But would HMRC view it as a sham? The AIM exemption is interesting, but long term wise I'm reluctant to have a very large chunk of cash tied up in that market. It can be very profitable, but then it can be very much the other way. There is always the idea of putting the investment company itself onto AIM! Thanks for reminding me of the IHT question ... it's something that I'd forgotten about over the last few months and I really should have a long-term strategy for it. What's your plans? Mike
Thanks for the reference to "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" by Charles MacKay ... looks an interesting/enjoyable read and one that I shall enjoy looking at. I agree with the sentiment ... "Whichever way you trade, as long as you're profitable, then stick to that formula." I think the major difference twixt me and many here is that I see myself as an investor rather than a trader and my aim is to infinity-hold on a consistent income stream. That's why, for me, the recent buy backs (which yes I am obsessed about) amounts to a 15% pay cut. From a trading perspective though the recent rises are excellent news ... and I suppose from the point of view of the beneficiaries of my estate too as well -- although it's never wise to be worth more dead than alive! Mike
There will always be a debate about fundamentals vs technicals. But if you read Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, you'll find that sometimes markets can become very irrational and prices ignore the fundamentals. You find it all the time on AIM and in commodities markets. Whichever way you trade, as long as you're profitable, then stick to that formula.
Chartists/Fundamentalists ... you takes your pick ... what is very interesting is that today's increase is entirely down to the market sentiment as nothing has actually changed. Leaving aside the questions that surround pilfering the dividend to fund the buy back the company has not declared any increase in its income rate/yield from an investors point of view and any equity increase is unlikely to be realised for the foreseeable future. With the company's 'cast in concrete' approach to value return over the coming years there's really no reason to rerate the share based on an unchanged income stream. Still, since when was the market ever rational or logical? What will be interesting to see is if the share buy back continues at these elevated price levels. Recently I've come to the conclusion that the buy back is more fuelled by alterior motive than sound investment principles -- we shall see. Mike
and brokers would out with they recommendations on Monday , at what price BKG could join FTSE 100 again.
And there you have it. A break out with only 2 tests of £30. A gap up today is bullish given the RNS although the market took it up to it's 61.8% retracement (at 3177) and bid it down to 3120 now. So easy does it although I'm sure more buyers will act on the news on Monday after it's been featured in the weekend press. Next target £3177 and then 3400. GLA
excellent trading so far
This is the 2nd test of £30. A third one is likely to precede a breakout.
Thanks Mike and I understand that many companies operate share buybacks at the expense of dividends. Not all of them shore up the share price either. Andrew PS: I stopped looking what I could have won a long time ago as it would affect my trading performance.
Yes the share purchase plan is continuing ... in the 10 trading days since the last dividend declaration the company has burned through 12p of our next 100p dividend. If this rate continues there will be no dividend as such in 6 months time. If any thing the rate of buy back is increasing despite the rise in the share price. I had thought that they were being at least a bit canny and were buying when the price was below the 20-day moving average but recent days disproves that. I've yet to see what I gained for giving up 15p of my previous dividend and now it looks like we're headed for giving up the lion's share of the next one. I agree it's still bullish, but this buy back has changed this stock from being a very significant income play to being a rather unpredictable and uncertain play on its equity value. Mike
Share purchase plan continues, they didn't get hit by budget measures and it's recovered well after recently going ex-divi. Still bullish.
2940 TOMORROW with a bit of luck
Tasty dividend mid-cap firm that’s suffered a share price slump in recent months is UK property developer Berkeley Group (LSE: BKG). However in its most recent update, the Cobham-based group reported better-than-expected trading for the first half of its financial year, with a 33.9% improvement in pre-tax profits to £392m, exceeding previous estimates of around £351.7m. me bob got to be a buy at this price/dividend During a period of political upheaval around the world, which has affected the immediate economic outlook, Berkeley has continued to focus on its core business of regenerating run-down estates and transforming ex-industrial land. With the shares now trading at a 20% discount to a year ago, the £2 per share full-year dividend payout equates to a very tasty 7.1% yield, coupled with a bargain valuation of just seven times forecast earnings for the current financial year.
BKG is testing resistance and should break out of it's current range. It's formed a bullish pennant formation. Negatives: Daily MACD doesn't agree
I have a life my friend, just I'm sure you do ... and I'm working on funding the rest of it, just as you must be doing too ... so you leave me to look after my interests and I'll leave you to look after yours. Actually less than 1% buy back BUT 15% drop in dividend, that's this time around, but as others have asked too, how much next time? As for me I said I would wait until I've seen a full cycle before investing further. In addition being short changed (aka shafted) is never a nice experience and someone asked about the unpaid dividends which I replied to. Further the identification of the buying strategy for the buy-back itself is useful information/discussion for investors in general. Mike
Looks to me as if the trigger point for the buy back process is the 20-day moving average price. When the SP is below that they buy. Sadly I think that's not such a good buy back point as it doesn't take a long enough time frame into consideration, effectively they are buying on localized dips rather than taking a much longer strategic view. I wouldn't be put off so much if it was the 100 or 200 day moving average. At that point they would truly be buying back when there was a disparity between the market and reality. Sorry, but the uncertainty here as regards the income stream is just killing this share for me .... I can't/won't go in any deeper with this one until I've seen it through another div/results cycle. I'll stay in, but I'm not going to get further in. Mike