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Vodafone Share Chat (VOD)



Share Price: 124.24Bid: 124.24Ask: 124.30Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Vodafone Grp.
Spread: 0.06Spread as %: 0.05%Open: 126.00High: 126.00Low: 123.32Yesterday’s Close: 124.24


Share Discussion for Vodafone


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Velo
Posts: 2,915
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:124.24
Fair price in this new landscape?
Tue 21:57
Shouldn't really post this as it's a bit depressive. Was searching through posts of mine a month or two back when trying to find a post in which I replied to Last Call in Oct/Nov last year (to compare phrases he used recently). It was him, but in the process I turned up an old post of mine with a 124p forecast as a potential fair value price when using the price earnings model to compare to the industry average. Was reminded of this a few weeks ago when the whole weekend 124 was staring back from the VOD page. So as it's back to that old 'fair price' tonight, I had another recalculation tonight as recently I'd noticed for the first time in many a year VOD's PE ratio is keeping BELOW it's industry average - in other words - undervalued.

The Industry average that both VOD and BT are in, is a forward P/E ratio average of 16.3

Now BT is seriously undervalued - a deep value stock, with it's forward P/E ratio standing at only 7.9
So straight away without any calculation you can see that BT would need to more than double it's SP to be just plain average to the industry average. More than Double!

So what is VOD's? It too, is less than the industry average, so that old 124p is now too low. As of tonight the forward P/E ratio for VOD stands at P/E15.8 just a smidgen below the industry average, and that means using a fair price P/E valuation method, 128p is now the 'fair price'.

Thing is, VOD has always commanded a superior rating to the industry, never average and always above - it had been until the beginning of last year: well, well above the industry average. In Jan 2018 it stood at PE 26 well above the average! ( So that's why it hasn't fallen as deeply as BT's has. So the question is, how much higher can the PE be pushed before the SP makes it look 'too high'?)

If unhappy with that PE valuation model, then on standard settings using not only the PE method but combining it with a host of other convoluted metrics to arrive at what's called a Relative to Sector model then fair price comes out on the computer at 186p

I prefer the PE method as you can't mess with the inputs so anything below 128p is in my book, is undervaluing VOD. So it's no surprise the SP has been accepting of this area 120's to 130's for some time now since the results last month.

Whatever, using some alternatives (and some others are even worse!) the Enterprise Value method suggests better, with conversion fair price of 214p

On the other hand over at freebie site Simply Wall Street they have the Future Cash flow method giving off a fair price of: 326p !

That's the only good thing I can say - pushing the SP below 128 is straining a share that historically has never experienced life in the council estate of low PE ratios.

Is VOD's PE worth higher, pro rata, than all it's competitors? If yes, then a higher than the industry average PE ratio is feasible; and with it automatically comes a higher SP. But that is the question, because right now it's only a smid
 
Mikeyh68
Posts: 313
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:124.24
Danielh
Tue 20:35
Sorry i am replying to this one and if i get kicked off i dont give a **** . I have had a terrible day after having a loyal pet PTS yesterday - not that you would give a sh** as you are a complete and utter ****. You are without doubt one of the nastiest people i have never met . An arrogant obnoxiois ****.

You know nothing about my investments - i have share save and also heavily invested personaly not that that has anything to do with you.

Now just **** off .

Finished - i am not having @55holes like you constantly trying to put me down . Sorry everybody else for this rant but i am completely devastated at the moment . Good luck in your investments - i have had enough of this ****
Velo
Posts: 2,915
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:124.24
RE: Fork Handles
Tue 20:21
Hi Longish, Yep - Calling it in - Call it: A Failure To Launch. Taking too long. Danger of broken clock syndrome.

80% success rate I reckon. So, if you want the 20% failure rate out of the way, there is a guaranteed method to do so. Post your conclusions on what a candlestick formation is implying - in public, on a forum like this - and bingo - egg on your face. Never fails to fail - (is that a double negative?)

So now all you've got to do, is keep your observations to yourself, and when it transpires and acts as you thought, tell everyone you thought it would do that - afterwards. It's the only way :) :) :) (Just remember to duck).

To answer your question, tonight is just an ugly bear candlestick, a big 'un too - continuation of crap if you like. Can't see anything good about it. (There, that should do it; told the truth in public, now it should do the bleedin' opposite, LOL!)
danielh
Posts: 1,448
Opinion:Hold
Price:124.24
RE: Sp
Tue 19:32
Uncle doug. So after your in depth analysis, you have obviously sold this pile of shite then? If not, why not, or are you just talking a pile of shite??
danielh
Posts: 1,448
Opinion:Hold
Price:124.24
If you have lost all faith in this ..
Tue 19:22
and are well and truly buggered, I suggest you bugger off. Simple! Some of us invest real money in this share, not just share options. You sound like a spoilt child because you don't get your free sweeties??
qweqweqwe
Posts: 685
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:124.24
RE: Sp
Tue 18:49
Uncle D,

There are many shares much worse than VOD, at least this is a growth market with the coming of 5G and IoT, whereas utilities like British Gas owner Centrica is totally doomed with a useless management destroying the company with 75% capital erosion when the CEO was put in charge.

There are few things to look forward to:- Liberty deal, Huawei decision, mast sharing and adoption of mass user upgrades of handsets to utilise 5G. Just patiently wait and collect the dividend whilst the share recovers. VOD is also a pan European company that’s reports their earnings and pays dividend in Euro’s so Brexit won’t affect them much and thus acts as a hedge. DYOR
AL75
Posts: 1,398
Opinion:Sell
Price:124.24
Next stop 113
Tue 16:52
Next stop 113, which was support in June 2009.
Longish
Posts: 601
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:124.24
RE: Fork Handles
Tue 16:44
Hi Velo,
'Do you want me to submit and accept defeat?'
---------------------------------------------------------------
Todays daily candle looks like a hammer but the real body is too long and lower shadow too short!
Does that indicate (confirm) instead of a strong bullish reversal we have a weak bullish reversal or uncertainty of 123 support?
Uncle_Doug
Posts: 116
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:124.24
RE: Sp
Tue 16:41
Hi - long term holder here. I've done some in depth analysis on this company and I can confidently confirm it's a pile of shite.
Mikeyh68
Posts: 313
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:123.88
Sp
Tue 14:45
Close to lows not seen for 16 years - if we break below this we are well and truly buggered . All those who keep buying good luck I have lost all faith in this share
trendfriend
Posts: 81
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:123.72
watch 119.5p
Tue 12:46
looking for a entry at 119.5p (if we get there) for a rally up to 128/130p....

if anyone wants to see the chart, let me know...happy to post a link...

atb, wik, dyor,
trendfriend.
char333
Posts: 522
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:123.80
Asset's h
Tue 12:40
I what is happening now with the purchase of the liberty assets. It seems to be dragging on for ages. Maybe if & when it's finalized Vodafone SP may stabilizer & even run up a little.
Longish
Posts: 601
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:123.84
RE: High quality information.
Tue 12:33
Hi TLWilliams, Jack,

Infrastructurally and historically, I think the international arm of BT was carved out into Cable&Wireless, and a major part of CW was absorbed into Vodafone and is now part of the VOD global and regional footprint which forms a major element of the worlds internet backbone (hugely unrecognised imo).

I can imagine there was never a clear separation in BT so it retained some international facilities which continued to serve global and regional enterprise accounts etc. Recent management changes at BT, simplification of platform facilities/ commercial/ partner arrangements seem to have led to the current strategy of exiting the property portfolio where it makes economic sense and manage the bottom line eg an enterprise account in Spain might be unprofitable if it has to recover all the local costs including buildings and facilities so it would make sense to buy these facilities in on pay as you go basis from another local operator. Bear in mind, if a global enterprise account is itself capex constrained, if it is not buying in, then BT is not selling into the account. It makes sense to exit unprofitable 'points of presence'.
Longish
Posts: 601
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:123.98
Buy
Tue 11:43
Topped up @ 123.874
TLWilliams.
Posts: 1,853
Opinion:Hold
Price:126.24
RE: High quality information.
Tue 07:36
Hi Jack and Longish.

It was good to read your latest contributions, which invariably keep me "on my toes", and prompt further research. I have been busy over the last few days, and this will continue for most of the week. I bought a new iMac with a 27 inch 5K screen yesterday, so I am looking forward to using it more - once the work is done.

It was interesting to compare/contrast the latest DB quotes for Vodafone and BT Group. I do not regard these as being too important, but they do contribute a small amount to my investment decisions. The Broker consensus for Vodafone remains positive for the time being, and this adds a measure of reassurance.

I used to be invested in BT Group. Although I have been fortunate to make small profits on speculative trades from time to time, my major investment strategy (some time ago) did not succeed and I cut my losses when the share price was a shade above 300p. I received the following information today, which confirms that they too are restructuring their international divisions. Vodafone is included in the final sentence, but it doesn't appear that another acquisition would interest them at present.

"BT Group has started exploratory talks with potential buyers of BT España, its Spanish operation. The incumbent British telecom had previously considered combining those operations with the company's Latin American business, but is now pursuing a stand-alone split-off. Such a sale comes in parallel with a separate process to sell BT Ireland, a sign that a restructuring of its international arm is speeding up.
While the Spanish talks are at an early point, any deal is more likely to appeal to buyout firms and infrastructure investors rather than bigger Spanish telecom players like Orange, Vodafone, MásMóvil or Telefonica."

The next six weeks should provide significant information, to coincide with the end of the narrow trading range of the ex-dividend period. I am tentatively anticipating a revival in the Vodafone share price, but one never knows in the current economic climate. Although I retain some optimism, it is always good to read everybody's opinions - rationalised from the same information. I should add that the most pessimists contributors on this board keep me grounded; there was far too much optimism in anticipation of a revival on the BT Group bulletin board for far too long, while their ship steadily continued to sink. Perhaps they will experience a revival to their fortune with a new CEO and an experienced Chairman of the Board at the helm?

Regards and best wishes.
danielh
Posts: 1,448
Opinion:Hold
Price:126.24
RE: High quality information.
Mon 19:38
If I could take out a share option on vod at £1.02, (20% discount,not small) I think that would be very good. Heads you win, tails you get your money back. Fingers crossed for the liberty clearance though, for those of us who actually might lose. Good luck all.
Longish
Posts: 601
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:126.24
RE: High quality information.
Mon 17:53
Hi Jack,

It has to be good for VOD that DB have reiterated buy with a target price of 240p.

However BT, they cut their recommendation from 'hold' to 'sell'.....due to the low levels of fibre deployment and "less advanced state of convergence competition in the UK (versus other markets).

Fingers crossed for Liberty clearance imo
jackdawsson
Posts: 3,471
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:126.82
RE: High quality information.
Mon 15:50
Hi Longish,

That would help considering the sharp slump in SP when Moody's downgraded VOD's debt earlier this year. Liberty deal clearance should be 23rd July. But mindful that EU ant-trust regulators have already extended that deadline more than once previously, that remains to be seen.

Next trading update 26th July. Gives me a few more weeks to again review any big decision, depending on VOD's SP in the days before the next update. - Regards.
Longish
Posts: 601
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:126.84
RE: High quality information.
Mon 15:34
Hi Jack,
We may get lucky with the credit rating agencies now VOD has reduced the div and plans for fcf, debt payback etc. Probably have to wait for Liberty clearance 1st though. Although complaints about the 5G auction delays may speed up the german competition authorities and still surprise with an early clearance before they start their summer vacations.
Longish
Posts: 601
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:126.44
RE: High quality information.
Mon 11:57
Hi Mike, nice hedge though!
Mikeyh68
Posts: 313
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:126.28
RE: High quality information.
Mon 10:22
Hi Longish

£1.02 - mind you we didnt think we would get as low as the previous one

Not good at all.

Mike
jackdawsson
Posts: 3,471
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:127.06
RE: High quality information.
Mon 08:57
Hi Longish,

I'd love to be wrong. But the way SP is behaving & with strong resistance not far above, it'll take VG news that's specific to VOD to take this out of the current slump. Can't see it.

Friday's 126.90 close was the lowest for a month. More decline later won't surprise me at all, no more than this site having further glitches & periods offline. - Regards & GLA.
Longish
Posts: 601
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:126.90
RE: High quality information.
Sun 09:38
Hi Jack
'another test of 123+'
--------------------------------
You may be right. 123 was the last Vod UK employee share purchase scheme. I understand the new scheme is 100. The price is a small discount in the scheme of things but must be in someones mind as a new floor. Should give the employees more incentive to grow the SP at least!
fleccy
Posts: 2,946
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:126.90
RE: Libra
Sat 14:43
Facebook wont make a dent in the financial world and Vodafone have been offering money exchange services, through M-PESA, for years. If Libra has any success, the regulators will jump all over in quick time and If Libra starts eroding bank profits, watch the hoops that Facebook will have to jump through. Facebook are promoting Libra as a way to monetise it's services, as soon as they stray from that narrative and start encroaching into the international money transfer market, they will be scrutinised big time. The problems, Libra might face, could be around money laundering and accountability. Once they get to a certain size, they'll find themselves in the realms of unlimited fines, should they be implicated in any sort of financial criminality, which might not be their fault. They'll have to cross every t and dot ever I, otherwise they could fall foul of the law of unintended consequences.
Longish
Posts: 601
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:127.18
Libra
Sat 08:47
Interesting week for me. I tracked Velos insights on candles as a technical indicator. I can see the merits, but this week the clunk and click of debt market tenders and new issues seemed to me to dominate the US and EU SP technical patterns leaving Vod with $1Bn incremental debt for 'corporate purposes'. I can only assume this debt is routing as per the debt programme pending Liberty clearance ie incremental cashflows that add to net present value and the SP?

In the meantime a hold.

Holding became more exciting this week with the emergence of Libra, Facebooks crypto currency now challenging the global monetary system. If successful, 27 partners, including Vodafone, would take some control of monetary policy from central banks. Of course, how that plays out globally, regionally and locally is now (urgently..) being assessed by a G7 working group in conjunction with the IMF and central banks. Democratisation and decentralisation of centuries old institutions and the emergence of multinational corporations, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank....time will tell. Certainly a long term investment pregnant with possibilities!! You can pick up an article in the Weekend FT Opinion if you want to read more on this.

GLA




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