Edlog said it was a good thing trouble have gone for Kenya first, so just trying to see where the good news is, after averaging down I need around 2p and then I'm out of this dump... dusters after dusters
looks as if Tower made the right decision to go for Kenya first.----- taken from II board. Below is a copy of a post on RKH board but I thought it has as much relevance here as TRP through Rift have the neighbouring block.
" supermajor Total has been forced to suspend its challenging Brulpadda-1 wildcat off South Africa for mechanical reasons, writes Iain Esau. Ocean Rig’s Eirik Raude semi-submersible had been drilling the probe in Block 11B/12B but is now off location because mechanical problems were discovered that relate to “the deterioration of the fairleaders”, said a spokesperson.
The well was suspended short of its target depth.
Industry sources said subsea conditions were difficult with current speeds as high as 11 metres per second.
Sources suggested that Eirik Raude and its riser systems were unable to handle these challenging conditions but this was denied by Total.
“The Eirik Raude and its riser system have proven their validity for work in such challenging sea and current conditions,” said the spokesperson. The weather window closes on 31 October so Total does not have time to repair the rig and re-enter the well.
Total’s spokesperson said: “Repairs of the fairleaders in a sheltered harbour will take a few weeks while at the same time the drilling period is constrained by weather and current conditions with the favourable (period) ending on 31 October.”
As a result, Total has released Eirik Raude and will use another rig to re-enter Brulpadda-1.
“Eirik Raude is committed under another contract next year so it won’t be able to... re-enter the well,” said the spokesperson.
Upstream understands the rig is now is off Namibia en route to the Ivory Coast where it may work for Lukoil.
The spokesperson denied suggestions Total — which is evolving a new exploration strategy — wants to pull out of Block 11B/12B.""
Thank you guys. Slightly humbled by your insightful responses. I am no longer concerned by a negative sales outcome on the day. Unless it is hitting the 10's of millions. Looking forward to good news and good fortunes around Feb 2015. GLA
Depends how much you're talking of but if you can get in at 0.7p or so and sell out at spud time probably 1.5p - 2p with luck you would have 100% profit. After spud if they hit gas its possibly 3p or so and oil 6.5-8p but if its another duster I suspect you'll be lucky to get 0.5p. Need a crystal ball ?? Your choice and DYOR !!
So, having got caught with my hand in the honey pot from the Namibia drill, I am sitting at a heavy loss with TRP. I am trying to make the decision of cutting my losses (is there much point at these sp levels?), sitting it out and hoping for what needs to be outstanding results from the Kenyan drill. Or to buy and potentially trade more at these levels, bringing my average down, hoping to recover on any pre-spud surge.
You would imagine a ruffle of the feathers and a little movement pre-spud (targeted for mid Dec 14 to mid Jan 15) of the Badada well. We then have a duration of approx. 70 days for drilling. Taking a moderate case scenario of spudding end of Jan 15 + 70 days = Mid April 2015. I would therefore imagine that it will be early to mid May before results of the drill are published. This at least gives a little time to accumulate at these levels.
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