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EXCLUSIVE: Aura Energy #Aura to IPO Swedish Vanadium prospect Watch Here

EXCLUSIVE: Aura Energy #Aura to IPO Swedish Vanadium prospect


Telford Homes Share Chat (TEF)



Share Price: 417.50Bid: 416.50Ask: 418.00Change: -1.00 (-0.24%)Faller - Telford Homes
Spread: 1.50Spread as %: 0.36%Open: 413.50High: 423.00Low: 412.00Yesterday’s Close: 418.50


Share Discussion for Telford Homes


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cyberduck
Posts: 653
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:414.50
RE: BKG comment
Today 11:23
>Sector is hardly considered exciting for any number of reasons (which for some of us is a good thing).

James, this reminded me of something Strictly said when I mentioned BWY's historically low p/e values a while back. he said "perhaps it had something to do with interest rates".

So perhaps that explains it. Builders aren't traditionally thought of as exciting growth stocks and their yield compared to the prevailing return on cash is perhaps a large factor. I've just checked back to the period I reviewed and BOE rates must average a bit less than 5% during the period.

So perhaps a yield of 8% for CRST compared to the current 0.5% BOE rate is the key to at least maintaining current SP's. Even TEF offering 4.4% covered 3 times compared to a questionable 2 times for CRST.
 
terrace
Posts: 3,695
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:420.00
CRST comment
Today 09:45
james64
Posts: 94
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:420.00
RE: BKG comment
Today 09:38
To add insult to injury Morgan Stanley downgraded BKG this morning with 3700p target.

Cyber re PE question. I don't keep records but I have been watching/involved with the sector for over 20 years and can confirm that PE's have been much lower than they are now. The sector has always had much lower PE than the wider market. I think I have mentioned this before in earlier post (but don't keep record). Sector is hardly considered exciting for any number of reasons (which for some of us is a good thing).
terrace
Posts: 3,695
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:420.00
BKG comment
Today 09:29
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/20/berkeley-peak-profits-london-housing-market-brexit

Just shows how a serious focus on IPRS work might be the factor that lets TEF buck the declining EPS outlook.
terrace
Posts: 3,695
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:421.00
RE: How low can it go?
Today 09:22
Cyber,interesting question and hopefully Strictly's long term records will enable him to provide an answer.
cyberduck
Posts: 653
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:412.00
How low can it go?
Today 08:18
I'm fairly new to this sector but some time ago I thought I'd take a look at historical p/e ratios to get an idea whether the p/e ratios I was seeing were typical. I looked at BWY originally then did the same for PSN some time later. I looked at a date each year which for each company was just after the annual results announcement. Then used the SP at that time and the EPS value from the results to come up with a p/e for that year.

I was shocked to see that the companies were trading on much lower p/e ratios than they are these days. Between 1997 and 2007 incl. PSN's average was 4.89 and BWY's 4.76. The companies were growing earnings really well during this period. PSN had an average ROE of 21.63% and BWY 20.47%.

Like I say I'm fairly new to the sector and I'm looking for somebody experienced to tell me why "it's different now".

It's hard finding historical data of p/e ratios for the market in general but I did see somewhere that the FTSE 250 had a p/e ratio of 22.5 in 1999. The value at the end of 2017 was 18.7 which is apparently below the average (which isn't mentioned in the article I read). So it doesn't look like the p/e ratios were generally lower in those days.

Lately I've been thinking that with CRST's div. yield at 8% the SP can't get much lower but who's to say we don't have a selloff every time a company gives a trading update suggesting lower future profits? Is there any argument to support BWY's p/e ratio being 8 for example rather than closer to the average of 4.76 prior to the 2008 financial crisis?
james64
Posts: 94
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:418.50
crest niicholsan
Today 07:37
Liberum initiate coverage of CN this morning with a BUY and 528p target, which seems to be totally at odds to my concern iterated yesterday . I hope they are right and will gladly be proved wrong.
strictlybricks
Posts: 265
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:418.50
RE: Strictly
Wed 18:33
Terrace,

Berkeley isn't a share I follow but, as you've raised it, I just had a quick skim of the comments in the final results and what Mr Pidgeley seems to be saying is that he has now run out of the bargain basement plots he opportunised on post crunch - having called that particular cycle last time round rather well, it seems..

Well, the market might have given him a cuff round the ear today but that cheap land wasn't going to last forever, was it..?

Probably what's foremost in his mind is completing the capital repayment programme - due to finish in 2021.

As I recall (but I may be wrong?), he's in for an eye-watering bonus on that if it comes off - unlike the last one which was snuffed out by the credit crunch..

Remember all the fuss about the Persimmon boys getting their's recently - they were only copying Pidgeley, after all, so it wasn't an original thought from Persimmon.

BTW, the reason I'm not a fan of owning Berkeley shares isn't that they're not a good company as I'm sure they are - but a simple soul like me finds monitoring the share buy backs and all that too much effort when there are alternative good prospects that operate more straighforwardly...

Strictly




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