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Telford Homes Share Chat (TEF)



Share Price: 429.00Bid: 0.00Ask: 0.00Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Telford Homes
Spread: 0.00Spread as %: 0.00%Open: 425.00High: 0.00Low: 0.00Yesterday’s Close: 429.00


Share Discussion for Telford Homes


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sain@vision
Posts: 7,416
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:429.00
WJ
Mon 19:25
Nothing wrong with WJ .Quickly established themselves as a market leader in bespoke student accomodation Extremely successful in funding these off plan .The early schemes were no brainers. Block let to blue chip university on long lease with RPI kickers where funds have been queuing up to buy

More recently the universities./ colleges have got a little bit wiser when left holding the management responsibilities and on the hook for the rent and voids

Now backing off this respnosibility WJ have had to introducing a management company as a buffer .to the funds No problem getting funds on board as its backed by WJ covenant
Problem is as the market becomes more saturated they are in the front line responsible for any voids

When TEF sells these BTR schemes they leave a clean pair of heels when construction is complete.
 
james188
Posts: 11
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:429.00
Watkin Jones read across
Mon 18:52
WJG published its full year results this morning. There are several interesting areas for comparison to TEF - and not just the sky high rating of the shares (too frothy for my liking).

The main chunk of their business is purpose built student accommodation (PBSA) and they forward sell pretty much all of that. More recently, they have expanded into build to rent and it looks as if they intend to grow that element fairly aggressively. However, in contrast to their PBSA strategy, apparently they intend to delay their disposal of schemes until late in the process. The CEO states that "..we will increasingly be able to demonstrate the revenue enhancement and cost savings achievable with specialist management ,[i.e. their small specialist property management arm] which in turn all increase the value of completed assets. We are therefore currently taking a prudent approach to forward sales, in anticipation of rising values in the build to rent market.

Across the board, WJG achieved an operating margin of 14.1% It does not break this down between the three lines of business. It will be interesting to see how it fares and what margin it achieves over the next few years for this extra level of risk.
sain@vision
Posts: 7,416
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:434.00
Comment
Mon 07:55
http://www.cityam.com/278752/london-house-prices-dragged-down-zones-2-and-3-says

Maybe this has contributed to the delayed planning on Bethnal Green ?.TEF fighting their corner trying to reduce the affordable element on the scheme at Cambridge Heath Road with Tower Hamlets to reflect changing market conditions .The needle heading south.
sain@vision
Posts: 7,416
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:434.00
Sratford
Sun 08:35
Interesting week coming up with a fresh launch on NGQ .They have had plenty of time to gauge market demand as they have been on site for sometime with boards up and the Stratford sales office open

This is the first fresh major launch for nearly 2 years since before Brexit with Liberty

Recent Stratosphere assignments will give them an up to date steer on pricing so will be be bang up to date on that

Suspect they will be launching with a number of pre-sales who have been sitting on their hands waiting for the doors to open.Let's hope so.
sain@vision
Posts: 7,416
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:433.25
Cambridge Heath Road
Fri 09:16
Its been nearly a year now since TEF announced its exciting £30.2m purchase of the above where it was hoped for a start on site this year .The application has yet to appear on Tower Hamlets planning register.As flagged up on TEF's corporate websitethe purchase was unconditional so with acquistion fees etc likely to be over £32m plus interest rolling up and a 7 figure planning bill

These are the entry costs before a blow is struck

No doubt TEF will have been keen get this moving so one can only assume TH in their usual style are being difficult putting the developer through the wringer

Probably trying to max out he affordable element and requesting a bagful of goodies towards other services
Let's not forget the London Electricity Board site has been lying empty derelict for many years . Maybe the blowhard Khan ought to find out what's causing the delay ?
strictlybricks
Posts: 214
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:433.25
RE: trading updates
Fri 08:56
James, "This is exactly the point. I have traded in and out in the past,(as well as remained invested), sometimes successfully sometimes not. Later analysis indicated I would have been much more successful if I had just sat quietly in the corner and remained"

Whereas, moving between different builders' shares DOES work - at least, it has for my circle of people involved in this...

My benchmark share is Bellway - by which I mean that, being the most consistent (though often under-rated) builder's share of the lot over the long term, if I'm moving around between shares then I want to at least do better than I would have by just sitting in Bellway and scratching my nuts (or whatever...)

My target is to beat Bellway by 10% a year on average.... given that Bellway's long term average annual gain is 16%, that would make for a target gain of 26% overall - which is quite a magic number, as it means doubling every three years....

I've been in this game a long time, but my record keeping on this is only accurate enough to give a precise figure for the past five years and that is that I've beaten Bellway by an average of 8.7% a year over that time so not quite up to my target as things stand...

However, while five years might seem along time it isn't really for this sort of thing and, for example, Bellway is currently a tad expensive (in my view) hence I'm mostly in Telford with some Crest and Redrow right now

If Bellway slipped back to be in line, value-wise, with the others my gain would then be at around the average improvement of 10% a year I'm aiming for.

But, in summary, I've been pretty much exclusively in builders' shares for around sixteen years, and I have always during that time traded between them and have consistently made additional gain by doing so - some years better than others, mind - I've worked pretty hard at improving what I'm doing and especially over the past couple of years since I've been writing a blog for my circle of people about it all, as having to rationalise & justify to them what I'm doing has pushed me to up my own game.

One thing I can say, though, is that letting go of being influenced by what the scribblers think and instead relying much more on track records, company guidance and common sense really does help!
sain@vision
Posts: 7,416
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:429.00
Comment
Fri 08:18
Http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/more-landlords-looking-to-quit-sector-as-mortgage-relief-changes-start-to-bite/

The absence of the private investor is certainly going to affect the timing of new launches.Difficult to launch early if they aren'.t going to turn up in the numbers TEF have previously enjoyed .This of course reduces the amount of deposits which have been so useful in fuelling TEF's expansion. More than mitigated of course by TEF's BTR deals
james64
Posts: 58
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:429.00
trading updates
Fri 07:11
Strictly..."If you call the market, get it wrong, and go to cash and builders' shares (the only game in town for me) keep going up, how do you get back in again?

This is exactly the point. I have traded in and out in the past,(as well as remained invested), sometimes sucessfully sometimes not. Later analysis indicated I would have been much more successful if I had just sat quietly in the corner and remained invested.




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