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I believe that there will be a modest bounce upwards next week if the sector as Boris pivots to the centre after winning the members vote on the tight. He is awful pm material but not stupid and will say warm things that booze confidence generally and will only get contradicted by events and facts in the fullness of time,
I’m fully invested in the sector with no cash.
Hoping tef for us tiddlers has a future after cbre rejected.
The Yanks are really preparing for the Brexit bonanza, US law firm Cooley have just signed a long lease on 75k of offices in the City
The business is being sold off at the wrong time and at the wrong price.
Well what is clear is that TEF has done an excellent job in clearing the decks of unsold stock in recent months and put some hay in the barn
Clearly with market sentiment fairly negative now is definitely not the time to sell especiaily as TEF have executed all the right moves in theri defensive switch to BTR.
All nicely reefed in to weather any storms and take advantage of any pickups
Americans are over in droves buying up London property Clearly they see the UK as suitable to harvest in a post Brexit world
the standard is using ons data which is actual registered sales -and thus is a lagging indicator. My quote is using the rightmove asking price survey which is a lead indicator as it tends to look 3 months into the future on what actual sales will likely be. This shows stabilization in London and no decline at all in the inner London Boroughs. As July is normally a bad month for asking prices this is considered stable.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/
"The price of property coming to market in Greater London falls by a modest 0.2% (-£939) this month. This compares favourably to the average 0.6% monthly fall for July over the previous five years. A significant drop in the number of properties coming to market is helping to balance supply with the reduced demand, and underpin prices."
The London property slump has dramatically accelerated with prices falling at their fastest rate in almost a decade, official figures reveal today.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/biggest-house-price-fall-for-a-decade-a4191921.html
In theory I think we should have all the opening position declarations by now, although I haven't noticed one from CBRE (presume they would have a nil declaration) or Thames River.
My tally is around 40% (plus some shares in share schemes on the Telford OPD that I haven't tried to add up).
Still not really any wiser as to who was buying the big chunks sold by Bank of Montreal, Schroders and Wise Funds, other than perhaps Cicogne buying most of the 4th July Schroders sale. Possibly Tavira, who went over the 1% threshold yesterday by increasing a CFD long, might have picked some up earlier.
But no sign of someone aggressively building a material position, so just have to wait and hope for an announcement by a potential counter-bidder sometime before 6th August.
Quite the opposite in london the rate of falling is moderating with many boroughs showing modest increases.
They've been falling for the last three years, but the fall in prices seem to be accelerating now.
https://news.sky.com/story/london-house-prices-fall-at-fastest-rate-in-a-decade-11764770
Heads under parapet
29th May
JDS
"The expected split of our current development pipeline, by number of homes, is 70 per cent
on build to rent led developments and 30 per cent on developments led by individual sales."
Yet within a few weeks this position has changed so radically that David Campbell' services are not required to shift the 30%?
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GFRD/galliford-try-plc-trading-statement-lm8jbnmj8o8nz6t.html
JDS is " away from the OFFICE" from 15 July until 5 August,the eve of the bid vote.
29-May-19 Shore Capital House Stock - 355.00 Reiteration
How can you have a recommended bid below the target price of the in house broker? This bid is not above the average of the last 12 months either. It is above the average of the last 6 months but why chose that? CBRE are buying in a temporary dip.
There has been no company specific bad news that shows that the long term potential of TEF has worsened. We will have 2 years of completions (and thus the main volume of profit realization) down but the pipeline is larger (stretching out to 2026 and beyond) and thus there will be catch up to the trend line of volume and SP growth.
I am partially irritated our BODS and house broker have not given some guidance to EPS for 21/22 year when EPS should accelerate again. They were all keen to give forward guidance when we had the dilution but now very quiet.
Seems they are trying to be helpful to CBRE by withholding future good news. Who would vote for this deal if EPS projections show this is a very temporary dip in strong EPS growth to 60p and beyond.
as you I've mostly flipped over to crest as the closest fit to my strategy to TEF. A 9% yield does not hurt either.
While Crest is not itself saying it wants to grow fast it is saying that growth of 3% is the plan (as you'd expect with over 1/3rd of EPS retained) alongside some reduction in risk by deleveraging.
So if I reinvest the 9% divi and we get 3% growth that will still be a 12% share value growth for me until I need to draw upon my ISA for retirement even without any SP lift form better sentiment (and at 6.7 P/E there is a long was to bounce back if sentiment changes).
12% growth with 9% of that compounded is still doubling every 6 or 7 years until I start to draw down the dividends. Not what I was hooping for from TEF but still not shabby.
If this CBRE deal is voted down I'll shift back to TEF as I suspect will others. Doubt if there would be a major price retrace if the deal voted down (delighted if there was on a personal level but I doubt it). Whoever is buying a large stake likely to be strategic and will provide, alongside tiddlers like me, support. Plus CBRE offer and shareholder resistance will have highlighted the intrinsic value so there will be more interest.
"I can say with some certainty that one shareholder with 1.4% will vote “no” unless a significantly higher bid comes in."
Robert Stokes.I presume?
Am I happy with 350p?
If that gets it into play and leads to a counterbid and an auction I will be very happy!
If 350p is the winning bid then I am less happy - it does feel a very low premium given the situation.
But I see Tef in my portfolio as a bit of diversification (away from Crest) and would probably reinvest the proceeds in Crest or another housebuilder. In fact I had already unwound a partial swap out of Crest into Tef (put on after the Tef profit warning) before the offer arrived. So I wouldn't see it as being cashed out at a relatively low point, but as a bit of a windfall allowing me to get more of another housebuilder than I might have expected.
And if Tef going at 350p puts a bit of an M&A premium into Crest then that also will be welcome.
So I would be tempted to vote for the deal (or sell in the market just ahead of the vote) rather than risk a "no" vote without a counter offer.
With AW and the non exec declared as resigning there will be a change irrespective. John Fitzgerald safe in my opinion as he is the technical and operational brain. Katie Rogers probably too as she knows the figures. Not sure about anyone else after a period of dust settling in the event of a no vote.
I can say with some certainty that one shareholder with 1.4% will vote “no” unless a significantly higher bid comes in.
Yes...I suppose only time will tell,I am not at all happy with 350p,are you?
terrace - the fact that it is a tiny fraction above 350p can equally well be explained by the symmetrical distribution though. i.e. the chance of it crashing to 250p if shareholders reject the bid without a counter-offer might be balancing the chance of it soaring to 450p if we get an auction for the company.
In terms of the stockbroker, well I guess everyone's got an opinion and the stockbroker's may well be correct. I'm just suggesting why your assessment of the market pricing a counter-bid at 33/1 might not necessarily be correct...
1gw...if the 350p bid is voted down,will shareholders still trust the BOD to act in their best interests thereafter.
So we got the Tef OPD today, CBRE's still to come, presumably tomorrow. With the Wisemans, the Trims and Robert Stokes we're up to around 34% declared by my calculations (plus a bit more for the other PDMRs' various holdings), which still feels to me like a surprisingly low % at this stage of the game.
And still no sign of who has been mopping up the big sells to keep the shareprice above the offer price.
1gw.well the sp is a tiny fraction above 350p and if anyone else is planning a higher bid they would be buying a few now at a lower sp would they not?Plus a stockbroker has told me he rates the chance of a counter bid as very,very slim.
terrace, how do you get to 33/1 for a counter-bid?
Personally I think you could reasonably argue for a fairly symmetrical distribution around a most likely case of the bid going through, with the alternatives being (A) counter-bid or (B) shareholders voting the CBRE deal down with upside shareprice expectation on A and downside shareprice expectation on B being broadly equal relative to the 350p offer. Now whether the market is valuing A and B as 25% possibilities or 1% possibilities I don't know, but it doesn't matter in the sense that fair value comes out at around the offer price.