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EXCLUSIVE: Alastair Smith, Avacta Group CEO gives an Operational Update


Telford Homes Share Chat (TEF)



Share Price: 425.00Bid: 422.50Ask: 424.50Change: 4.00 (+0.95%)Riser - Telford Homes
Spread: 2.00Spread as %: 0.47%Open: 422.00High: 425.00Low: 421.50Yesterday’s Close: 421.00


Share Discussion for Telford Homes


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steph
Posts: 4,264
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:421.00
all
Today 05:45
the news for TEF just keeps getting better and better. As mentioned I do think TEF advancing its position on it's merit fully counter the headwinds about due to Brexit and the chance of a flash crash due, perhaps, to Trump finally spooking the markets with his trade wars.

I remain fully invested in my ISA and expect great things in 10 to 15 years time on that. I remain cautious on whether is a good time for a bit more TEF focused shorter term speculation on my spread. Fear missing the boat but also fear a short term crash or correction of the market over the next few months and thus a long wait to make money and a missed lower entry point.

Brexit certainty in November would help but what passes for Brexit certainty will certainly come with a heavy dose of fudge with a lot of major rows simply beamed up into the post March 2019 transition period -when we are formally out and with little leverage except to threaten to crash out. Real certainty on Brexit is at least 2 years out and I expect strong headwinds until then. I do expect quite a bounce if and when Brexit uncertainty lifts.

Of course Parliament could spring a surprise on us all. The votes for May's Checkers starting point are not there but I suspect the Tory rebels on the Eurosceptic right will cave when the alternative is a referendum or an election the Tories might lose. I think it is too late for any cross part proposal. Too many bridges burned, May not a natural team player and Labor too tribal. So I expect lots of fudge where the hard Eurosceptics will have reassuring words but not be able bind the negotiations to come too much or the Europhile wing of the Party will also rebel. Can't see Checker's becoming soft enough to bring any of the major 3 parties into orbit. Of course Labour has it's Eurosceptic rebel 5 but beyond that very unlikely any Labour, lib dem or SDP will vote with the government.

Checkers for me is a dogs dinner but better than no deal -although that is a very low bar. So is Labour's position to be in the customs union but not in the single market. If we are to have a soft Brexit much prefer Norway model with a customs border down the Irish sea but the opportunity to advocate that has passed for now.

So for us investors a bit of a roller coaster ride for 2 years. Money to be made if one can guess the dips but on what criteria? Strictly 's methodology guides between builders but not between the sector as a whole and cash as a whole That requires guessing politics and right now that is really hard to do.
sain@vision
Posts: 8,402
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:418.50
Chrisp Street
Wed 10:25
Katie will be mindful that with slowing sales.holding less deposits and an increasing number of unsold apartments on physical completion the £210m facility doesn't stretch that far.

Casting her mind back to Cityscape where 50 % of the booty had to be given away to lenders of last resort William Pears in consideration for a modest capital sum .This was necessary to leverage the construction finance. TEF had to do all the heavy lifting and go to the Far East for some pre-sales too to trigger the finance.

The financing of the the £280m Chrisp Street development will be uppermost in her thoughts.Still of course in the time period of judicial review where further delays might arise nevertheless needs addressing sooner rather than later .

Still the subject of debate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynZdlpvm-Og

Most likely route especially with the high commercial element one for a non- recourse loan ring fenced like City North and Balfron Tower? .

Perhaps Chrisp Street is earmarked as the juicy carrot for the BTR partner to launch the new joint venture Certainly ticks all the boxes Maybe M&G having a second bite of the Poplar cherry with Carmen Street close by .Exciting prospect
sain@vision
Posts: 8,402
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:414.00
BTR Event 28th November
Tue 12:22
Yet another BTR event with TEF down amongst the attendees An impressive selection of panelists containing all the movers and shakers Industry growing like Topsy .

Won't be long before the TEF battleship moves out of the harbour and starts sailing

http://www.resiinvestment.com/panel/
sain@vision
Posts: 8,402
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:416.50
Comment
Tue 10:22
https://twitter.com/dowbrae/status/1041642355990953984

Interesting article about BTR sector disadvantaged with no help by Harry Downes of Fizzy Living

They currently have about 1200 tenants av age 31 with a median salary of £44k pa About 60% of their occupants meet the criteria for intermediate housing. Stating that the accomodation costs about 20% more than those offered for private sale yet no subsides etc .
sain@vision
Posts: 8,402
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:415.00
BTR
Mon 08:59
Yet another BTR event next month.

https://twitter.com/TheUKAA

The industry really going to town!
sain@vision
Posts: 8,402
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:412.00
H1
Sun 08:06
Difficult to guess how the figures are going to pan out this year.For the last 2 financial years its been the poor relation due to completion timings £8.7m and £9 m respectively.behind a bumper H2.Similar this year but less so .

Much depends on how many completions at Stratford Central manage to slot in before the end of Sept.The first 4 floors are the shared ownership with L&Q.It looks very much like about 100 private sales will make it through . The
vast majority were very early sales secured in May 2014 .4 years historic!! .Missing out on the full HPI .Nevertheless certainly way above original target margins .Bumper profits from the penthouses in H2

In addition all the IPRS revenue from the 4 sites .The penthouses at Stratosphere and the residual sales at Bermondsey Works and further sales at Manhattan

I am going to take a stab at £15m +profits..Headline likely to read along the lines of " Profits up 80% sales volumes down" !
sain@vision
Posts: 8,402
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:412.00
BTR
Sun 05:59
Some dissenting voices in Newham for BTR ! Just goes to show it's not a shoe in .Further accentuating TEF's suitability as a partner in negotiating the tricky waters of planning

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/newham-council-threatens-to-block-100home-rental-tower-in-bid-to-discourage-high-rental-turnover-a123911.html

Meanwhile the BTR roadshow rolls on .Having appeared as a major item of discussion at the Residential Convention last week in Wales where Steffy was in attendance ,further industry events planned.early next year.
https://www.buildtorentforum.co.uk/

A quick scroll through the events speakers .its a veritable who's who of the burgeoning sector fully illustrates how quickly this sector has grown and the weight of investment it has attracted. Let's not forget Jerry with his time at L&Q has a lot of skin and experience in this sector to bring to the table .

Huge opportunity to be farmed.Make hay whilst the sun shines for this sector!! . You can almost hear the sound of the stampede of the new developer's friend
sain@vision
Posts: 8,402
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:412.00
Cybs
Fri 17:16
Finally !!!, many major deals are arranged" off market " Major agents like Savills and JLL are instructed to discreetly offer opportunities to approved and endorsed parties who are performers and do what they actually say they will do Their reputations are at risk .

TEF now certainly fall into the endorsed category .The last thing Savills when acting for a major client is for the deal to fall apart once terms are agreed in principle or some smooth opearter looking to move the goal posts at the death.

TEF are now dining at the top table and will be offered the choicest of dishes
sain@vision
Posts: 8,402
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:412.00
JV
Fri 16:39
What might happen soonest and James will no doubt be able to comment from experience on this is that once the preferred candidate is chosen a lockout agreement is arranged as an act of goodwill to give comfort to both
parties who will be incurring some serious fees getting down to the nitty gritty
james188
Posts: 46
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:413.00
Sorting out JV partners
Fri 16:11
It can easily take over six months to sort out a complex JV - particularly when listed entities in different jurisdictions are involved, triggering the need for multiple approvals even once the terms have been agreed.That is once the parter(s) have been selected - and that could take several bidding rounds. Even then, it doesn't always work out - look at the recent example of Lone Star's attempt to do a deal involving Quintain. After selection, there are a host of issues to grapple with and a large number of detailed documents will be involved. Unless you have been through an exercise like this (and I spent much of my professional career doing this sort of thing, for my sins), it is very hard to appreciate the sheer amount of effort and negotiation involved). TEF will be aware that shareholders only really care about the end result and how quickly they can get there rather than the tedious detail involved, but I imagine that a lot is going on behind the scenes. There is just no point in doing a running commentary. As mentioned, I would much rather that they took the time to sort it out. This is an opportunity, but it also could be a bet the company deal and a badly thought out JV would be a living nightmare for everyone and particularly shareholders.
sain@vision
Posts: 8,402
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:414.00
Cybs
Fri 15:39
Well It's because of the high level off interest shown in partnering TEF they decided to appoint Savills.That is a firm positive .

Since July Savills would have organised a brief to establish a list of interested parties .then create a short list Then select the chosen party then negotiate terms ,I suspect that is the stage they have reached now Don't forget it was the summer hols too

We will then be into major league complicated legal work arranging the JV for what is likely to involve a 9 figure war chest

Unlikely this will feature much before the end of the year
cyberduck
Posts: 744
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:412.00
RE: James 64
Fri 12:56
>Unfortunately everything takes time

It was last October that they were talking about a long term partner, or was it even earlier? It seems like an ongoing story.

Then in July they appoint Savills to find a partner. Does it really take over 6 months to appoint somebody?

Perhaps these parties are expressing great interest but are reluctant to commit? I noticed a couple of the BTR links posted the other day were for other areas of the country.
sain@vision
Posts: 8,402
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:410.50
James 64
Fri 09:41
Yes It was James 188 I was referring to

Unfortunately everything takes time .Just imagine Greystar having shelled out £100 m watching the interest crank away
The BTR market is exploding .TEF are going to be a big part of it .Even if they have already hooked the big fish,as the other James flags up extremely complex to structure .Months and months. You can bet both parties will want to get on with it quickly and get cracking It couldn't be more exciting!
james64
Posts: 107
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:414.00
James/Doctus
Fri 08:15
Morning Sain,

just thought I would point out that there are a couple of James' who comment here from time to time and James 188 commented on disclosure while i commented earlier in the week on Crest.

Meanwhile Carney continues in his efforts to scare everyone to death re brexit....fortunately he has gotten everything wrong so far, and see more of the same.

Re Nine Elms and Greystar....share Cybers frustration. Need to get moving on this ....it was supposed to be just adjusting pre existing planning consent if memory serves and 12 month delay disappointing, as is the continued and non appearance of much vaunted new BTL partner." good things come to those that wait" does not really cut it for me. I'm afraid.
terrace
Posts: 3,834
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:414.00
Carney speaks on house prices etc
Fri 07:53
sain@vision
Posts: 8,402
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:411.00
Cybs
Fri 07:45
Nine Elms

Yes always dangerous giving time scales where planning is concerned.The good news is that it has been submitted and nearing the end of the timetable for public comments So next couple of months should see it through.Gratification deferred !

Only a matter of time good things come to those that wait !

They have announced that they are at an advanced stage on some new acquistions so all will be revealed in due course Very exciting times ahead
cyberduck
Posts: 744
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:411.00
October Trading Update
Fri 07:30
Just looking at the 2017 October trading update....

"A pre-construction contract was signed with Greystar in June 2017 with the Group expecting to develop just under 900 rental homes in Nine Elms alongside one of the sector's most active investors. Detailed planning consent is expected in early 2018"

Still waiting.

"The Group continues to progress discussions with a number of large-scale investors regarding individual deals and longer term partnerships. This level of engagement demonstrates Telford Homes' reputation as a highly skilled partner which is able to acquire land, achieve planning consents and build quality homes under the brand of a respected London developer. The strength of demand in this sector and the number of institutions looking to employ significant long term capital reinforces the Group's strategy to increase its build to rent activity."

Still waiting.

"The Group has a development pipeline of over 4,000 homes"

I wonder how much the pipeline has grown in the last 12 months. I wonder if it has grown at all.




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