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Telford Homes Share Chat (TEF)



Share Price: 309.50Bid: 307.00Ask: 310.50Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Telford Homes
Spread: 3.50Spread as %: 1.14%Open: 311.00High: 311.00Low: 300.50Yesterday’s Close: 309.50


Share Discussion for Telford Homes


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steph
Posts: 4,313
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:309.50
currency markets
Today 13:20
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/11/16/sterling-holds-hedge-funds-bet-may-victory-second-referendum/

One good indicator of market views of the political woes that affect in time our sector is the exchange rate.

Seems the market has not crashed the pound as much as expected as there are two probably outcomes. May gets her deal through parliament or she is forced to hold a second referendum. Either good for TEF. The market must be expecting a second referendum would either cancel Brexit or give May's plan enough momentum to get it through parliament.
 
sain@vision
Posts: 8,682
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:309.50
BookValues
Sat 06:24
As TEF's financial position has improved over the last 6 years they have been able to purchase sites outright.The bold move into Stratosphere where they literally bet the house and the unconditional purchase of Liberty at Crossharbour where they took a calculated risk on planning and paid off being noteable examples.

They currently now have over £100m buried in the ground in 4 sites of future pipeline which will be coming to market at some stage in an uncertain market.all of which are accumulating interest and servicing costs. Hackney Wick,Bethnal Green, Walthamstow and Greenford

In the current market open market values of these would be under water as very few developers apart from TEF could make these sweat.

Not doubting Greenford for one moment but a big chunk of money for TEF to lay down in the current climate In fact ,I would draw a big positive from that move.Firstly as the vendor is Greystar which would indicate that possibly they are being lined up as the new partner .In addition that TEF are confident this will be paid for by a deal on Equipment Works

Good news will be arriving shortly on 9 Elms.Results for H1 are going to look good.This will be accompanied by Steffy announcing that he is pleased with progress on getting the unsold apartments out of the door. and target for the year still in sight

Despite all the background noise TEF's light shineth!
steph
Posts: 4,313
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:309.50
sain
Sat 04:41
nice map. Surprised on the number within zone 1. Clear clustering effect to be near (although not necessarily in) zone 1 and very near good rail networks. Certainly maps TEF's patch well.

Our share price right now in the short term seems to go up and down in lockstep with the waxing or waxing of government troubles. Things stabilized a bit Friday with the last 5 true believers in Cabinet staying for now and the government not imploding. Not imploding is what passes for stability these days in the UK.

Odds of crashing out 15 to 20%. Mays existing deal passing Parliament and EU down to 40% and a new referendum which leads to Brexit being cancelled entirely now up to 30%. The odds of a different Brexit emerging (Norway or Canada) with the requisite delay in article 50 or the transition period 10%. In short anything possible.

I fancy myself a political (as well as a long term economic analyst) but even so don't feel comfortable investing on this set of politics. Too random and unpredictable. A micro event such as Corbyn or May getting too ill to continue would have a substantial impact. Too fine grain.

Comfortable in my ISA held TEF but that position is fixed for at least 5 years (I'm even assuming dividend reinvestment and probably topping it up by 20k yearly for now so a low share price not catastrophic in that position as still adding) so presumably will mature beyond current UK government difficulties. 80%+ chance this SP will be double it's value today in 5 years time and that prediction can include a mild recession along the way.
sain@vision
Posts: 8,682
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:309.00
Comment
Fri 07:50
Been an inevitable slowdown with Brexit looking to achieve the Gov't target of 300k homes by the mid 2020s

https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/house-building-hits-a-decade-high-but-pace-of-growth-halves-in-last-year/

Interesting map of new development !

https://carto.com/blog/map-real-estate-housing-development-uk/
steph
Posts: 4,313
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:304.50
RE: Gove
Thu 16:34
As you know I’m a remainder but prefer Gove to may. I’d rather have a competent exit than chaos.

Norway for now would be fine for me and l’ve long predicted on this blog that was the most likely exit.
COVENTRYKID
Posts: 317
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:306.00
Gove
Thu 16:08
Breaking news. And its good.
Gove been offered Brexit Minister role. He says he will consider if allowed to re-negotiate . Easily my favourite politician. Big Brain, always delivers and a first rate leave Campaigner.
COVENTRYKID
Posts: 317
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:307.50
RE: cy
Thu 15:18
Good precis on Mays abilities (none) from Steph.
steph
Posts: 4,313
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:310.50
cy
Thu 14:58
I doubt if there are more than 30 MP's who actually welcome a no deal (Moggites) but the risk is by accident we might get there. Still say the odds are 20% and I am invested cautiously as a result.

So irritating the mismanagement no matter what your leave remain preferences. Should have been a white paper before article 50 and a clear parliamentary vote for a specific brexit strategy. May trying to secretly control what was always an intensely political choice has pi__ed of everybody.

Just the wrong PM at the wrong moment and she is now losing me hard earned money. She was an awful home secretary unable to see a move or two ahead (windrush) and just a tragedy she was promoted way above her abilities. She is not strategic. Needs to be told what to do and then beavers away regardless. History will be harsh. Thatcher had her detractors to be sure but while we have "Thatcherite" polices we are not going to get a "Mayite" anything except in joking reference to general incompetence and mismanagement.
COVENTRYKID
Posts: 317
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:309.50
RE: Chaos
Thu 14:52
Arthritic knee allowing and it is at time of typing , i would be thrilled to run for the "South Wales Borderers"
My Welsh credentials are 100% . Born in South Wales Valleys to Welsh Mother & Father.
Now dont get me started on the England Rugby team
Did run in the Senior Welsh Nat Champs back in the day @ 800Metres.

Anyway stat of the day ...i actually own a share which has risen today. Out of respect for this board no names.
cyberduck
Posts: 816
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:311.50
RE: Market hates resignations
Thu 13:44
Surely these people (and I use the term loosely) are just thinking about their political careers.

I'd imagine the vast majority of MP's didn't want to leave Europe so they'll support the deal if it's just a quasi-brexit.

Perhaps party politics will play a part but Labour probably better avoiding the hot-seat and sniping from the sidelines.

Very little chance of a "no deal" outcome as far as I'm concerned.
james64
Posts: 126
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:312.50
market reaction
Thu 13:27
Uk domestic stock pretty much getting hammered which pretty much tells us what the prevailing view is. That the May agreement is dead in the water and the only one who still thinks otherwise is the PM herself who is still defending /promoting it in the house...which by now is almost empty as no one wants to listen to her anymore.

TEF still holding up reasonably well but I doubt if that will last.....
steph
Posts: 4,313
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:315.50
threw in the towel on my spread
Thu 11:47
Took some losses on my spread. Just too much uncertainty for me.

Still all in on my ISA. I have not traded within my ISA for years. Maybe should have aka Terr but too late now.

This volatility will end and the sunny TEF uplands await.
steph
Posts: 4,313
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:317.00
wish my lifes savings not caught up
Thu 11:17
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/first-poll-since-brexit-deal-voters-want-a-new-referendum-a3990851.html

MP's may get bolder to put the deal to a referendum as public opinion continues to shift.

Market volatility for a while I'm afraid.
steph
Posts: 4,313
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:317.00
Market hates resignations
Thu 10:55
Barratt Developments: -6.9%
Persimmon: -6.5%
RBS: -6.4%
Taylor Wimpey: -6.3%
Marks & Spencer: -5.8%
Royal Mail: -5.4%
Berkeley Group: -5.3%
Lloyds Banking Group: -4.7%
ITV: -4.6%
sain@vision
Posts: 8,682
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:317.00
Chaos
Thu 10:23
Churchillian response taking place this morning to the proposals Covkid I would hold back on that running if I were you they might just find room for you in the South Wales Borderers

If this long island story of ours is to end at last, let it end only when each one of us lies choking in his own blood upon the ground"[
james64
Posts: 126
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:317.00
resignations
Thu 10:16
Number 3 already gone. No 4 still awaited. It would hardly surprise me if May herself resigned before lunch.....hopefully.
james64
Posts: 126
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:317.00
resignations
Thu 09:54
Still waiting for more resignations.

Leaving in March without a deal is not "crashing" out Steph. it is leaving on WTO terms. we need to stop this doomster nonsense. 50% of our trade already happens under WTO terms.
The impact to the EU would/will be massive...they have overplayed their hand.
steph
Posts: 4,313
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:324.50
Resignations
Thu 09:29
Odds of crashing out back up to 20-25%

Pound back down

Harder to see how this will get through parliament
james64
Posts: 126
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:322.50
interestin2
Thu 09:20
Two resignations so far this morning. Well done Rabb. More needed, but that will not stop May. She has made error after error since becoming PM and she will continue to do so until she is kicked out. Market will now begin to price in hard brexit... which can still be avoided, but still better than Mays surrender.
COVENTRYKID
Posts: 317
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:324.50
RE: interesting 2
Thu 08:32
Well said James. Dont forget the European Army , at least i am too old for conscription. Must admit i found Stephs reduced to "15%"on crashing out hopeful. The Sun get sums it up well this morning ( i buy it for the wife !) "We're in the Brexshit"
Probably time to sell everything you hold. Go to Cash.
Great British Pounds please !
james64
Posts: 126
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:324.50
interesting 2
Thu 07:49
How infinitely sad that almost 100 years to the day since the armistice a British Prime Minister surrenders UK sovereignty to a European totalitarian regime. I thought that Halifax had died quite some time ago.

The only way out of this tragic doom loop is that May is deposed as quickly as possible and that the whole agreement passed by the cabinet last night is completely trashed. The alternative hardy bears thinking about. Within a few years there will be a return to sectarian violence in Northern Ireland. The uk will never be allowed to leave and also within a few years we will be instructed....yes instructed to adopt the Euro which would be a financial disaster assuming it has not collapsed by then which is quite possible. This would aslo require that we hand over Bank of england responsibility to the EU central bank and that taxation would be controlled in Europe by the evil empire. Revolution is not far down the track. I say this, as by comparison the fortunes of a very small developer in London is not very important, Good luck everyone, buckle up.
sain@vision
Posts: 8,682
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:324.50
Part Exchange
Thu 07:22
As the majors recent updates have been robust .Bovis update this morning follows the trend.However the"dreaded part exchange has now creeped back in to gain sales reflecting how the market has changed and no doubt will start to impact.

BOVIS

"We have increased our use of part exchange which is running at c. 15% of reservations in the second half. We continue to be disciplined in our use of part exchange with completions in the period operating in line with our policies and procedures."
steph
Posts: 4,313
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:324.50
quotes
Thu 05:13
Benjamin Graham “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

Bill Miller “Value investing means really asking what are the best values, and not assuming that because something looks expensive that it is, or assuming that because a stock is down in price and trades at low multiples that it is a bargain”

Charlie Munger “It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait. If you didn’t get the deferred-gratification gene, you’ve got to work very hard to overcome that.”

Warren Buffett “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”

Geraldine Weiss “Never is there a better time to buy a stock than when a basically sound company, for whatever reason, temporarily falls out of favor with the investment community.”




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