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It beggars belief for a "conservative" government to consider another tax hike for oil and gas. Hunt can't raise income tax since voters won't like this so he's got to find money elsewhere to fund the Tories' high spending, low growth, big government project. It would be a short term political manoeuvre that would do enormous long term damage to the country.
This thing hosted on the BBCbon a radio program in the past. Dyor
Is that not contractive. Long live north sea and prosecution for milliband and it's cronies. Inmv.
Fwiw. UK gilts rebounded sharply today after h..not the c...nt leak. So the markets like n sea tax grab even further to fund tax breaks. Minute Britain were getting there .inmv dyor etc
I think this shows how they are inept. The obr has stated that any tax cuts needs to balance. I e what happened to truss. So the easiest way for them is to tax what's left of Serica,harbour enquest be and the rest. After all I'm sure the big players will come to the rescue of UK needs in day six or seven years time.
In summary we are a basket case of a country inmv,dyor etc
And once again as me and others may have posted. The industry needs to unite and stop all n sea production. Either by health and safety on rigs ,bits falling of etc,but better still moth ball all oil fields and then bill the exchequer for tax refunds
""The tax has ended up raising less than initially forecast, with the government’s monthly receipts data suggesting about £6 billion has been collected to date. The OBR’s forecasts indicate another £3.6 billion is expected over the 2024-25 tax year, with takings tapering to £1.9 billion in 2027-2028...." (if they are lucky imo)
If that doesn't tell you its and industry in decline, don't know what will ....
https://news.yahoo.com/hunt-considers-extending-uk-windfall-130625331.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFqcjNZDtf0vH7V0KXUXMGEEyd4qnZ58wjJgx4cbzAHGWKHjCZ4_MdkfcQ4Xl6ITlIG-NjlcIOmpFKSt2o5urz_2UKNM6NNwTFSRuOcsJnpK__YDE5mVexBhBRr_lXgYmjm1qCr5_Fu9IaGlf0fG7KL4QyHIQU9h_DlyvU3dFgiw
aimo & dyor
Good chance he will damage the industry more for nothing more than beating Labour to it and so doing pulling the rug from under Labour's calls for more tax.
Does anyone think that the EPL will ever go away? It is permanent now. At least until production falls off a cliff in 2-3 years when nobody maintains/develops anything in the North Sea.
Jeremy Hunt considering extending the windfall tax
hTTps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-29/jeremy-hunt-may-extend-uk-windfall-tax-on-oil-gas-at-budget?srnd=undefined&leadSource=uverify%20wall
Maybe option 5
We hold on and make about twenty percent per annun about eighty milion after workovers of two hundred milion. With a dividend of say ten pence.
Not sure where the share will be though.
Off topic. HMG has just subsidised a electric car factory to the tune of five hundred million. I wonder where that funding is going to come from. Maybe an increase in epl????
There is always...
Option 4: We get taken over !
aimo & dyor
As I see it, there are three scenarios for this share.
1. Labour get elected and follow through with their stated intentions on taxation. The share price will plummet along the SP of other UK oil and gas cos. UK North Sea decline will be rapid and it will be dead within 10 years.
2. Labour get elected and don't follow through with their stated intentions. The SP will rally and the NS will survive until 2050 to support the energy transition.
3. A decent overseas deal is announced reducing dependency on the UK. The SP will rally.
Until any of these eventualities comes to pass, the SP will continue to languish.
Oil and Gas ⬆️ Oil stocks down ⬇️ 🤦♂️
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1762847508496048165
Thanks Upomega.
I'm too timid at this point to add further on this stock
Thanks NewKOTB, I presume you're referring to MF's departure.
Good point and noted.
Perhaps a new CEO will be better placed to identify opportunities outside NS, though possibly a period of stasis whilst the appointment is found and settles in.
Inmv any rally will attract further sellers or Like wise any fall to 150 or below will make this a buy. If you are prepared to hold for a while. Either way I will either reduce further or add back fwiw.
Maybe someone could answer this. If incentives are removed would we still be able to write any investment off against tax. The way I see we should still be able to retain twenty percent after capital expenditure. So at today's prices we would be about eighty million in profit on 50 thsnd bod.Even with no incentives and two hundred million investments.The dividend may be cut though
"I'm unfortunately of the view that Mitch Flegg has the capability to drive this company further into the ground..."
Think you need to get up to speed on that one ...
aimo & dyor
Even in a tight capacity market, I'm unfortunately of the view that Mitch Flegg has the capability to drive this company further into the ground. The Mercuria tie-up is a governance issue for small shareholders insofar as this significant shareholder has written itself an option to buyout shareholders at some point. In the intervening period the price continues to deflate, possibly aided and abetted by this significant shareholder and a SQZ BoD whose focus on shareholder value is not readily discernible.
A poor investment on my part, where my turnaround strategy is little more than 'hope'
The largets trading houses have pledged investments in the green energy transition, but returns there are very poor, as the integrated oil and gas supermajors have seen first-hand over the past years. We borrow much less from banks and are waiting for good investment opportunities. But those are slim in loss-making green energy an executive at one of the top trading firms told Reuters.
Low returns from renewables have prompted oil and gas giants like Shell and BP to streamline and/or reduce exposure to renewables and clean energy solutions and pivot back to their core business of oil and gas
Oil and gas provide profits unlike renewable projects where losses have been at multi billion dollar levels over the lat year, investment will only go where profits are available.
Https://www.malcysblog.com/2024/02/oil-price-dec-jog-serica-i3-molecular-energy-and-finally/
Jersey Oil & Gas has announced that, further to the press release issued on 23 November 2023, the Company has now completed its farm-out of a 30% interest in the Greater Buchan Area licences to Serica Energy (UK) Limited and received the associated milestone cash payment of $6.8 million.
...
For JOG this is another amazing milestone to have passed, apart from the legal certainty of closing, it puts JOG in a very strong financial position so that now they and their exceptional partners can take this project on to become one of the biggest, and low carbon developments in the UKCS.
For years I have been impressed by the way that JOG have moved forward and now that they have two high quality partners with Serica now formally on board (see comments below) they can kick on with certainty. My Price Target has been £10 per share for a long time now and at the current share price exhibits a material discount to the core NAV. JOG remains an outstanding investment in the sector.
...
Another great addition to the portfolio for Serica as completion of the farm-in to the GBA is announced. The GBA will define the future, low carbon and emission levers whilst being a big provider for the country, its oil workers and fiscal income.
My post is to add some more to DennisThepennis and surprised ideas re educating people and politicians.
Maybe the industry could start by doing lectures at Colleges and universities. As this would at least educate young voters. They could also fund a documentary or two for National television together with greater press coverage. Also is there any reason as to why they could not simply do a type of party political broadcast on main stream television.
While official data indicates an oil glut, the physical oil market is experiencing significant tightness, as evidenced by soaring spreads, contrary to market expectations.
Factors contributing to the physical market's tightness include supply issues in various regions, including vessel diversions, freeze-offs in the US, worker protests in Libya, and logistical constraints in the North Sea
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Short-Sellers-in-Trouble-As-Physical-Oil-Market-Defies-Data.html
''Short Sellers in Trouble As Physical Oil Market Defies Data''
''EIA (Biden's dept) has done everything it could to indicate there is a glut of oil, Biden fears inflation before the election, the physical market is sending just the opposite signal, with spreads showing screaming physical tightness.''
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1762530470191939606
Once again we have a party threatening to undermine the energy sector with a position on oil and gas that is not grounded in the reality of how net zero will be delivered. Labour has fallen into the trap of presenting the switch as a binary move from one source of energy to another, and suggesting that 200,000 plus workers will simply hop off their oilrigs and into a new green energy job.
The reality is far more complex and requires a pragmatic approach to domestic oil and gas production — one that is realistic about the time it will take to build projects and jobs in renewables, and one that is honest about the energy we use.
Our politicians consistently forget the “net” in net zero. We will still need oil and gas beyond 2050. And if we are to do that in the most efficient way possible, we need new North Sea fields. Labour’s wrong-headed position on new development is unsurprising, given it has been drawn up without any engagement with the industry.The price of getting the energy transition wrong is huge. Labour needs to reflect hard on these numbers, talk to the people and companies and come back with a sensible position.
Siemes and Orsted have suffered $4 -$5 billion losses on wind farm projects this year and it is clear Labour and Starmer have no idea about the energy industry economics, wind or oil. The labour stance on windfall tax and allowances displays their total lack of business acumen and the lack of understanding of the impact of their policies. For a government in waiting displaying such ignorance of the UK's energy sector is a concern and it is clear that North Sea operators will begin a transition away from the UK in 2024 leaving less tax take for Labour and less energy security for the UK.
Labour have a short window to develop a plan in conjunction with the Oil and gas sector or see a complete collapse of their 'energy polcy' .....SQZ can still make a profit in the North Sea due to their nifty operation, however, they must surely be poised for operations beyond the North Sea and away from both Tory and Labour tax grabs.