Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Shareminator implied refining fees have been coming down for the last 4 quarters and the most recent quarter seemed to be exceptionally low. The price that SLP quote is before processing but if you compare this to the net realised basket the gap to market is narrowing implying a lower processing charge. It may also be a fixed charge per oz which means as price rise this will further support margins. Regarding production, if Q1 was 16.6koz and full year is 75koz including Phoenix then implied Q2-Q4 SDO production is 17.8koz per quarter. Assuming a marginal ramp up would weight production to back end and would support further growth in SDO production in 2019. All in all over the last week I have upgraded my cash flow forecast for SLP and agree 100% this will be throwing off cash at spot. Maybe a touch of optimism but I think they can afford a 10% divi over the next 12 months
Nice little bounce here, 12.5p on the ASK. The markets are upset with IMPALA right now and LMI are not in the clear yet. The market value of cash cows like SLP should continue to build :) Matrix - That may well explain why the difference has increased more recently although it continues to improve as a percentage even quarter on quarter (the trend is intact). ragnar - Was the size of the refining fee last quarter unprecedented? It's good to see it fall this quarter but I seem to recall the company were aware it was unusually large. Regarding phasing in production, there shouldn't be much of a bias in the latter quarters given it is operational and there was no intended ramp up. They are looking to reduce costs and I would expect that to begin to take effect in the next couple of quarters. With MF2 improved PGM recovery efficiencies should sustain output despite Steelports planned closure and it will lower PGM production unit costs (offseeting the somewhat higher Phoenix cash costs). In 6-12 months time we will be throwing off considerably more cash thanks to lower all-in costs, higher production and a steadily increasing basket price that shows no sign of slowing down. It all looks weighted to the second half of the financial year but it's not long to wait
Good morning Ragnar... Matrix a little hung-over, totally self-inflicted, a bit early for hair of the dog !!!! Very good breakdown... Matrix does try to work in ZAR, as local costs are normally quite static, yet will fluctuate (sometimes wildly) with USD/ZAR movements when using USD. Production will benefit from Phoenix from now, so maybe add 1.3k for Q2, 2k for 3 and 4 (don't have Steelpoort's figures at hand), SLP's "pulling" strategies have improved recovery efficiencies... Will probably be back-end weighted, MF2 in production, 19k needs to be QTR target average... Will add when brain commences activity... Best wishes MO
Thanks Matrix this all makes sense now: The difference between the price received and my calculated basket has narrowed substantially this qtr. At production of 16589oz and revenue of $14.1m the received basket is $850/oz. My calculated market basket is $958.8, implying an 11% refining fee. For the previous qtr the same method gives a price received of $735 versus market basket of $917 and discount of 20%. The refining cost per oz over the previous 4 quarters is as follows 109, 182, 172, 235. All other things equal, Q2 would be $1.1m higher on revenue and EBITDA, due to higher PGM and ZAR depreciation...6% increase in EBITDA margin before even factoring in benefit of Echo cash cost reduction Any thoughts as to production phasing for Q2-Q4 in order to get us to 75koz for the full year so I can complete my full year forecast? I'm thinking something like Q1:16.6, Q2:17.9, Q3:19.3, Q4:21.3. Seems aggressive but how else do we get to 75koz?
Good day T_S and SLPers I think there was a clue to why realised basket is above bid/spot... Contained within 7-Nov update... "Benefiting from new and improved PGM concentrate off-take agreement concluded in December 2016, the benefits of which have only been realised in recent months due to a long processing pipeline;" Could have been a platinum off take arrangement around Dec 16 prices ??? Had to call, but apparently a master stroke :-) Good luck all
Ah thank you for clarifying. I'm using the end of day prices at Investing.com Despite the premium to bid my PGM basket price estimates continue to come in below the reported price and by a widening margin so I wouldn't worry too much about overestimating. Watching LMI currently but I feel shareholders there will lose out once the company announces a refinancing plan, either in the short term or down the line. Their costs are unsustainable going by 2018-19 forecasts. Write-downs continue, their banking covenants will be in breach next quarter or the following. The platinum space could well jump if production is slashed and jobs cut across LMI's operation.
Good day the_shareminator Same ratios, slightly different prices... I use Kitco BID price, i.e. Pt, which is $927 (13,311 ZAR) Best to allow for some margin of error... Hopefully Pt has a good run... The way the big boys are eating through their pre-mined stock, bodes well for a couple of years time... Probably start to feed through as higher prices, when the light-bulb comes on. Best wishes MO
Also appreciate the time you're putting in Matrix. I actually make it $996/oz for the PGM split which converts to ZAR 14,230/oz right now. This is largely down to the falling rand but bear in mind palladium continues to strengthen and the PGM basket price is trading above last quarters average. My estimates have come in under the reported PGM basket price which as mentioned previously is indicative of producers receiving above spot prices, an industry norm when prices are surging and that should continue this quarter. So it's probably looking healthier still :) The week ending PGM figures I have with percentages in brackets are Pt = 931 (62.1) Pd = 992 (24.2) Rh = 1300 (13.5) Au = 1275 (0.2) so are we using different ratios Matrix?
Good morning fellow SLPers... Have just finished my weekly bid/spot ZAR basket price calculation.... Drum rolllllllll..... It's the highest week-ending figure I've recorded to-date.... 14,084.97 (up 230 ZAR on last weekend) Best wishes all, arise the Phoenix, MO :-)