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The Dow finished up. Hopefully the Asian markets will recover tonight. Thus maybe and I say a very cautious maybe the ftse will rise and help with shires flagging performance of late and get a healthy boost 2m. Let’s see
Very close to breaching $164, up into $166.3 now !
Sorry I meant the weekly ma20 line ! We are well above the ma50 line !
Ok , Takeda down , but at 4600. Was 4400 two weeks ago. Dropped from a 4750p high, but could easily climb back up. Reckon £ heading for $1.31, so cash should increase. Current sp hitting ma50 line at the moment, which is a strong upward trend, hopefully this will support us.
w-i-m, I think you were right first time. Merely drifting down with the general market.
Thx for that Tom
Yes, but only for a portion. The cash element is purely dictated by GBP:USD. The share element by Takeda SP and the Yen:GBP movements. So if general market movements impact Takeda, then we are likely to suffer some movements subject to movements in the Yen. At few minutes ago the offer was worth 4901p again but the offer gained 185p from exchange rates and lost 185p from Takeda SP falls. This highlights the volatility! Good luck mate.
So, through takeda it is still exposed to general market / indices movement right?
Because it is no longer (or only insignificantly) driven by other share movements or indices movements other than fx rates, Takeda SP and general sentiment as to whether the deal will go ahead. Everything else is irrelevant. Takeda was down overnight. If the markets have a tumble, SHP might be a protector unless Takeda tumbles too.
Shp down in line with major stocks but it didnt budge when most majors were up over the last few days....
Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 4883p with 2267p in cash and 2616p in shares. With current SP of 4217p, the SP would need to rise 15.78% to match. From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 184p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 165p because of fx gains on the cash and share elements.
Glad I didn’t sell today. Was so tempted to get out. I will hang in a bit more. Thanks
I think consolidation is almost over. Break to 43s imminent , I think.
I know mate. When all the markets are up-shire is hardly moving! Annoying as hell!!! I think 50-60o more and I’m done. Missing out on so many other good opps
You and me both. As soon as we sell she will bust out again and rocket. And if we keep them she will just move sideways lol
Having said that, its not looking too good when major indices are up almost 2%
Its gaining a pound or two every week. So, looking forward to 43 or 44 by Friday. :-))
No idea mate it seems to have hit a brick wall at the moment. I�m ready to sell but do not want to jump the gun just yet.
Any views in where this share price is going guys in the next week or so?
Value of offer a few minutes ago was 4876p with 2248p in cash and 2628p in shares. With current SP of 4207p, the SP would need to rise 15.89% to match. From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 130p in value due to fall in Takeda shares but gained 105p because of fx gains.
While in an active takeover situation reporting requirements of Institutional holders are much more rigorous. If you want to track what the major players are doing, clicking on the RNS button at the top of the page gives a pretty good picture, and shows how active in the market they are..As I said a few days ago, and is required to be reported, most of them hold both companies and will trade to ensure the deal goes through , In the meantime its obvious from some of the option trading that they are also making a turn on the volatility . The outcome is therefore likely to be an erratic upward progress in the SHP SP towards the deal valuation coupled with an erratic but broadly flat state for the TAK SP.
I don't think Takeda will be buying in the open market. The buys will come from market punters/hedge funds/aribtragers etc. If you firmly believe that the deal will happen then there is 15% to be made within 9 months. Even if the deal value stays around �49, I doubt it will get anywhere near �45 for months. Even close to completion I suspect that the discount will remain high because of the currency risks Takeda paper risks. The only way to get full value will be to get the Takeda shares (via US ADRs) in my opinion. But �45 will be available once the votes have happened.
Seems like non stop buys going through. Do you think takeda mopping them up on the cheap?
Keep it up Redtom, nice to have the daily updates!