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thank you luddite for your previous answer- i have now decided to sell as well but can you tell me when is the deadline before i need to sell-is the sp likely to rise still before the deadline?
Bloomberg predicting 2% bounce for jap stocks on 22nd Nov so I am hopeing Takeda gets some benefit which should raise SHP over £46.40 sometime during the day hopefully a spike up at 8am at which point I will sell again unless it looks like momentum carrying it a worthwhile amount higher.
I am an idiot , god knows how I ever make money at this game by not keeping up with the news, the EU conditionally cleared it on 20 Nov so what we have now is a pure arbitrage which alters my perception of the risk and means I will be looking to double up on what I already bought if we get dips below the £45.70 level.
ali fish, of course taking the offer is a done deal its already decided by the big players. all that remains is for the last hurdle on 22 Nov EU clearance unless its delayed even further, there is a 6% upside to £48.72 at todays Takeda price of 4319yen so market sentinment not giving us much more room for arbitrage but still a better bet than many. I dont want Takeda shares but I am hopeing to milk the ups and downs right to the last minute then sell the lot at what I hope will be something over £49 a share. I have just bought back in again at £45.65, I don't think the EU will block Tekeda but you never know, its a gamble.
"sod the AIM, this is where proper amounts of money can be made with less risk of losing the lot"
Quite right, I have made dribs and drabs of cash trading AIM shares, but virtually none buying and holding. I am now convinced that AIM is just beyond reasonable risk and full of unscrupulous CEO,s how are only in for lifestyle reasons.
are people here not thinking of accepting the takeda offer?
Thanks luddite. Exemption from SD certainly makes short-term trading more attractive. I see a listing (dated 2014) of SD exempt UK listed companies at:
http://www.dividend.org.uk/uk-shares-without-stamp-duty/
In spite of all past price history being available it is always so difficult to extrapolate just a few days ahead, especially in these uncertain times! I am hesitating to invest in Shire again at the moment unless the price drops significantly - I do not want to be locked-in for the takeover.
Good luck in trading !
paradigm I sold again this morning at £46.49 and I am now dithering about hopeing to buy back again but at the moment at £46.17 I cannot decide if it will drop further or bounce up again. The stamp duty exemption is of course because SHP is an Irish company listed in London and exempt just like many other great FTSE100 traders like IAG and Glen etc, sod the AIM, this is where proper amounts of money can be made with less risk of losing the lot.
luddite:
Yes, that is what I also like to try to do! Can you please remind what qualifies Shire purchases to be exempt from 0.5% Stamp Duty? Thanks.
I sold at £47.33 and got back in again at £45.30, so far its dropped back almost immediately after each leg up, this has been one of the best traders around for months now and with no stamp duty to pay and a very tight spread it beats AIM shares every time. I am hopeing for at least another three ups and two downs before Takeda eats my lunch.
A tad negative !
Rather relieved and quite happy to get out at 4750p this morning.
Can anyone please let me know id Takeda will have a London or usa listing after takeover .
If Brexit deal gets agreed £ will rally 5-10%+ Coming into the Brexit vote, the 2 year average gbp/yen was 177 and gbp/dollar 1.54 Based on the current share price/exchange rates, the price deal is worth £48.82 or 5.8% discount. Any SP positive reaction is capped because the deal mechanics are already agreed and so it would come down to where £ trades against the dollar & yen. £46 could be a good exit point if you think Brexit deal gets agreed in view what would happen to £.
Japan Fair Trade Commission approved today but that was almost a given thing so no big deal, the next stage is the EU which is less of a given thing but my money is on it getting approval which as long as there is no market crash in the meantime will probably see another step up in the price. I feel its still probably worth a punt even at todays price but who knows what could happen over the next few months to the downside. There has been lots of opportunity to trade SHP, its always fallen back after each leg up, great trading range this past few weeks.
What approvals are still outstanding before the deal could be completed?
And what is the timing for the possible closing of the deal?
Offer value now approx £48.81, 12% upside, I see risk now as EU decision time soon which I dont see going against Takeda SHP being an Irish company but risk may push price further down until decision day. My main concern now is the US v £ stg risk, seems the dollar prospects negative over next six months so even a no deal brexit not likely to crash the pound. For a 12 % prospective return I am holding but not buying more at this price.
Offer value approx £49.61 today , approx 15% upside (if it gets all clearances, Takeda price holds, and $ and yen stay put against £) whats the odds on it all happening ? I remember SabMiller and a few other big ones at this stage in the takeover game and many people doubting they would get through the hoops but more often than not they do. My main concern is the possibility of a market correction.
Dublin, Ireland – August 24, 2018 – Shire plc (LSE: SHP and NASDAQ: SHPG) (“Shire”), Baxalta Incorporated, a Delaware corporation and wholly-owned subsidiary of Shire (“Baxalta”), and Shire Acquisitions Investments Ireland DAC, an Irish designated activity company and wholly-owned subsidiary of Shire (“SAIIDAC” and, together with Baxalta, the “Offerors”), announced today that the Offerors have commenced cash tender offers (collectively, the “Tender Offers,” and each offer to purchase a series of notes individually, a “Tender Offer”) to purchase up to $2,250,000,000 aggregate principal amount (the "Aggregate Maximum Purchase Amount") of Baxalta’s outstanding 2.875% Senior Notes due 2020, 3.600% Senior Notes due 2022, 4.000% Senior Notes due 2025 and 5.250% Senior Notes due 2045 and SAIIDAC’s outstanding 3.200% Senior Notes due 2026 (collectively, the “Notes”). Baxalta is the Offeror for the notes issued by it, and SAIIDAC is the Offeror for the notes issued by it.
The Tender Offers are not conditioned upon a minimum amount of Notes of any series, or a minimum amount of Notes of all series, being tendered. However, the Tender Offers are subject to, and conditioned upon, the satisfaction or waiver of certain conditions described in the Offer to Purchase, including the closing of, and receipt by Shire of the cash proceeds from, the sale of Shire’s Oncology business.
today. A jump based on new drug approval, there is good value here
Sold today , I said back in may that I would hang around until £45 but happy top take a profit and move on . The remaining £5 will take around 6 months to appear, so i'm happy to leave it for someone else.
Unlike many here who claim to have bought in at rock bottom prices, I bought in at an average of 4,892 so I am stuck until the end of the year when I expect them to return to this figure. Then it's sell.
Whatever made me choose Pharma stock? Oh yes, it seemed a good idea at the time.
Celtic.Many thanks for your up to date answer.
Value of the offer a few minutes ago, based on live fx rates, was 5019p with 2325p in cash and 2694p in shares. With current share price of 4398p, the share price would need to rise 14.13% to match. From the original offer value of 4901p, we have lost 113p in value due to fall in value of Takeda shares but gained 231p because of favourable fx movements on both the cash and share elements. Takeda (Yen) = 4725 £:$ = 1.30424 £:Yen = 147.164
Thanks for the info. Every bit helps.
Only a small holding of just over £23K with an average buy in of 4720 and will be looking at a sell lat just over 5000.
I have full confidence in this being reached. Although share values usually drop when I buy in (Sods Law), most eventually pull back and end up as a nice profit.
No reason why these should not reach the 5K mark later this year.