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Scancell Holdings Share Chat (SCLP)



Share Price: 5.50Bid: 5.20Ask: 5.80Change: 0.40 (+7.84%)Riser - Scancell Hldgs
Spread: 0.60Spread as %: 11.54%Open: 5.10High: 5.50Low: 5.00Yesterday’s Close: 5.10


Share Discussion for Scancell Holdings




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TommyFlowers
Posts: 375
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.90
RE: Morning C7 - Where did we get to ?
15 Mar '19
Crumbs, sounds like a pretty sensible strategy to me .... I am not a million miles away myself .... I have some capital held back to go after we know. Either way there will be value ..... we will raise on a dilutive basis so I can significantly average down or we get a pop on a deal and I think after an initial pop (which I probably would not chase).... value will emerge as it will take weeks/months for the market to properly understand/evaluate the potential and to place a value on that .... happy at that point to average up for a derisked investment.
 
crumbs
Posts: 13,637
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.90
RE: Morning C7 - Where did we get to ?
15 Mar '19
1. Agree
2. Agree

Scancell has never been more 'deal ready' though .... BioNtech collab over a year old into H1 2019 when initial phase to find TCR candidates completes....... Samantha Paxton hired to 'spearhead the NEW TCR THERAPEUTICS' ....I'm taking that RNS'd fact and what I hear from scancell emails as a 'hint'

Modi-1 closer to the clinic than ever adjuvant sorted manufacturing sorted tox testing possible complete or nearing completion and oh so important all most vital patents for the supporting moditope platform about to come into place with the US one expected soon..... Modi 2 has arrived ..have no doubt scancell team science will tweak that to 100% humanised mouse survival too and it targets the most immunosuppressive of targets....wowzers
Scancell as of April 2018 - in multiple partnership discussions for moditope.... in an RNS that.... so there are 2 possible deals

MABs.... deal history on those new string to scancells bow... possible deal generator

Any deal on moditope will have a huge amount of upfront attached when you compare to any comparative deals and consider scancells current Mcap.... and in TCR sphere the smallest target deal I can find had $8million upfront with $200 million milestones... we know BioNtech have the money and have clearly stated of $270 million they raised just before our collab some of it will be spent on techs surrounding its TCR program... a program that would only make its end of year IPO more attractive.

Race against the clock? as ever... possible that scancell will have to raise pre any deal - yes... deals not possible before then? obviously not!

My strategy... nibble away but have a nice stash waiting for the bell on a transformationl RNS day...... as market would take a little while to wake up to it.... and might even eventually price in SCIB1's already a clinical success and SCIB2free ride to commercialisation.... watch this space as ever lol
TommyFlowers
Posts: 375
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:5.90
Morning C7 - Where did we get to ?
15 Mar '19
Hope you are feeling a bit better about the cordiality shown on the BB yesterday ... It seemed an improvement over previous days. If you are inclined I would like to pick up our conversation from yesterday .... Starting with the items I think we were able to agree on.

1. Most non profitable AIM listed companies raise dilutive capital the significant majority of the time.
2. It is a possibility that any raise later this year will be dilutive.

So I think the real difference between us comes down to the potential that the next raise will be dilutive or come from non dilutive sources. So my current position is the probability of a dilutive raise is 60:40 ..... If there is no deal announced at the time the US patents are approved I would take that to lets say 85:15. Let me explain why I think it is 60:40 .... Firstly since !PO 20.3 million has been raised by dilutive financing in 4 placements vs @5 million from 1 non dilutive source. So given both in terms of amounts raised and number of raisings the ratio is about 4:1 that track record would suggest a base line probability of 80:20 .... now we know the Biontech deal is a possibility but we don't know when/if (or truthfully even how much it would be worth) that may occur and we know we are fast approaching the event horizon where a raise is needed. So in my view we should increase the chance of a non dilutive raise from that historical average.... from here it becomes subjective .... so many things can go wrong with a deal especially when you are up against a set timeline that I still come down on the side of a dilutive deal .... so 60/40 feels about right to me.

As I said if we get the various patents granted and this does not trigger the condition precedent on a pre existing deal with Biontech or another, then I am afraid for me it is almost certain we get a dilutive raise, then I would be at 85:15.

Are you (or any others) prepared to share your thinking around this issue ? Here is to an RNS today making me (happily) wrong on this issue. My advice as always, prepare for the worst, hope for the best.




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