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They are very similarly priced. Their ships are also a very similar size.
I can’t help think that Saga’s ocean and river cruise division would be very tempting for Viking if it has the funding to expand.
I doubt they would in 2023. I wonder what price they will ipo at? Hopefully the saga bod will take notice and make sure we get a fair deal with doing whatever they are planning on doing with regards to the partnership.
I wonder what Vikings massive "one-off " costs were that created the huge loss? Maybe they also wrote down some goodwill? LOL.
This is a good point currently cruise and travel has no goodwill on the books. So we need some kind of deal/partnership here to propel the SP much higher
Tfe
I hope so in the long run, but this top up was a lot higher than that made on
3rd Oct 2022 (about 82p)
Has come down a lot since my over £4 sale on 12th May 2021.
Just a shame I didn't sell a lot more then. I also started buying back too soon from that sale. I need a decent rise from the current level to get back on track.
This is currently a laggard in my portfolio alongside Marstons.
Https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/travel-firm-viking-holdings-seeks-raise-11-bln-us-ipo-2024-04-22/
IPO at 10x EBITDA.
Good top-up price last week Lti, I was tempted but resisted, happy with my current position here.
Thanks Alnwick. I hope your positivity bears fruit soon. Some large buys today might suggest some good news is near.
Hi Accipiter, I share your view on SAGA being a sitting duck and it will be on the Radar of PE too.
The interest from the Prospective buyer at around 265P was before RDH invested.
I think it's more likely that AGEAS will acquire the Insurance business and SAGA will then concentrate on Cruise and Travel to become the over 60's luxury brand in Europe.
They already have another 3 River ships in construction and are expanding the travel business with Private Jet Tours and Longer escorted tours which are very profitable and selling well.
The days of SAGA Insurance making 100M+ appear to be Gone !
Hi Rogue
The highly conditional offer was at 33p in old money. This was before the rights issue and consolidation. So the offer price would have been 265 based on the number of shares now in issue .
And to be fair anyone wanting to cut their losses at 220 could have then exited at anywhere between 300 and 440 over a good few weeks no? We're here, or back here, because it will happen again at some point by some means ...
He had an indicative offer of about 220, but that wasn't a firm offer. It was an invite to open the books. It wouldn't have ended up as 220 if the prospective buyer had anything about him IMHO.
"I believe saga is a sitting duck. A ready made brand for Carnival"
Only if Uncle Roger can be parted from his baby. He had a chance once before but chose to block it and to deny shareholders their chance to recoup some of their lost £s. Someone on here will remember the offer price he rejected about 3 years ago?
Goodwill can only be written off but not reinstated under IFRS, for internally generated goodwill. What about goodwill on their home and pmi business?
I think worth looking at the history here....
After it went public 2014 the goodwill was sat on the sheet at a whopping 1.6bn. The piggy had truly been fattened for market huh? It then dropped to 1.47 the following year and then stabilised around there until 2019. It dropped then to 1.17resulting in an overall loss, and has continued dropping ever since (save 2022) with the same result. The goodwill allocated to cruise was zeroed in COVID 2021, so what's left (344m) is now only insurance. Insurance's numbers have obviously dropped but not by that %age. Presumably on that basis, they will shed some more this year.
Totally agree I believe saga is a sitting duck. A ready made brand for Carnival at a bargain price.
If one of the big operators buys saga they will be able to increase Ebitda by at least 20mn due to operational leverage. Saga's cost base is far too high given their lack of scale. Plus they will be able to add additional ships to the fleet.
Maybe toppy for the UK, but not so for the US. Look at how much CCL, RCL and NCL are valued at. CCL is $4.5bn over an enterprise value of $48bn.
9x sounds a bit toppy...but that would value cruise at over 4x todays MCap.
The offer they had for AICL last year, I have a feeling that might have come from Ageas.
I've just watched the SAGA presentation at www.investormeetcompany.com
It's worth watching and the new CEO comes across very well.
Good insight into Cruise & Travel current trading and the future prospects.
What I found particulary interesting was SAGA 's partnership on Motor and Home Insurance is with AGEAS.
AGEAS are the Belgian based Insurance company who recently bid 3.1Billion for DIRECT LINE !
This partnership could develop into an Offer !!
Interesting options
Happy Weekend
Viking want to IPO for 10bn and they have EBITDA of 1.1bn.
Saga cruise have an EBITDA of GBP 80m, how much should they be valued at?
Cheers Alnwick,
so they reduce it from 220p to 175, which is probably why there was an initial sell on results day.
Really Saga needs to do a deal to shed debt. I am hoping for an AICL sell or a sale and leasback on the cruise ships
The shareholder Equity has dropped from £651.4m to £223.5m inside of 2 years which is pretty horrendous
.... so you definitely have to want to think it has to get better ..... but... with the net insurance liabilities and lower cash once the 10% Haan loan kicks in , plus having to ask for consent before paying any further Corporate Debt off ..they are still sailing through delicate financial waters ..dividends look a long way off yet...
Given the Insurance liabilities and the impairments on Insurance it suggests they have come to realise the business isn't worth quite as much as they may have hoped for... looks like they are though being somewhat realistic to that fact
Current MCAP is below the book Equity so the market isnt being kind to the share at all