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Ryanair Share Chat (RYA)



Share Price: 9.86Bid: 9.926Ask: 9.936Change: -0.088 (-0.88%)Faller - Ryanair Hldg.
Spread: 0.01Spread as %: 0.10%Open: 10.04High: 10.055Low: 9.86Yesterday’s Close: 9.948


Share Discussion for Ryanair


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sage
Posts: 60,761
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:9.994
Andy
23 May '19
Remarkable to have full books during Max8 gate.Of course Boeing are not a one plane company.I`m wondering if the max`s might be a little cheaper in the future until the world regains confidence?
Andyagogo
Posts: 1,044
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:9.918
RE: Aircraft pricing, leasing
23 May '19
* highly competitive leasing rates
Andyagogo
Posts: 1,044
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:9.918
Aircraft pricing, leasing
23 May '19
Ok final comment on the results conference call.

Their view is new aircraft pricing is high atm, with manufacturers having multi year full
order books. Although it was not directly mentioned, my impression was Michael expects this to
change over the next couple of years.

Highly competitive aircraft leading rates were mentioned re Lauda on the Airbus.

Lastly, they appear to view the market for selling older aircraft as strong,
many of these are going to China to be reconfigured as cargo planes.
sage
Posts: 60,761
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:9.94
Having said that
23 May '19
in a horrible year for rya with ATC probs and strikes and unionisation they made a Billion euros (minus Lauda set up costs) It`s good Nicky`s name will live on after his sad death.I remember that epic duel with Hunt and some incredible bravery by him and his fellow drivers in those days.R.I.P NL. Monaco will be an emotional occasion this year.
sage
Posts: 60,761
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:9.95
So I`ve (probably unwisely)
23 May '19
moved some emergency cash out of our isa`s to have a little punt. Probably in EZJ! Yes I know..Having said it`s a buy under £10..it`s hard to resist and I`m already fully loaded with RYA.Based on the fact that over the last 10 years both airlines chart have crisscrossed multiple times..one up the other down and vice versa..If one is hit by strikes then the other gains etc...Will wait until tomorrow when the cash clears.Hopefully get sub £9.

Mikey`s comments do reveal his ruthless business brain.Hoping for high POO! lol.I`d hate to play poker with him.
One thing puzzles me.Both airlines jet and rya and for that matter Wizz constantly show increased passenger numbers indicating healthy demand curve.Why then do ticket prices have to keep falling?It`s against the basic rules of economics even taking into account rising costs and consolidation.I hope mikeys quest for world domination do not blind him to basic profitability in the short term.
Daytradenovice
Posts: 2,176
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:9.944
RE: Consolidation
23 May '19
id be inclined to agree with him there, like him or loathe him he is a very talented businessman and been around for a long time in an industry renowned for failures.

Logically it makes sense to have a few big players rather than lots of smaller ones from purely a business point of view, but not from a consumer viewpoint, larger destination pool, more flexibility to move planes and people around with better resiliance at lower cost. The EU are probably happy to allow Lufty to be protected from all manner of things as they are often protectionist of their industries, only have to look at CAP to see that.
Andyagogo
Posts: 1,044
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:9.946
Consolidation
23 May '19
Michael was asked about consolidation. His view is the sudden fall in the oil price prevented some
consolidation over the winter months.
He favours oil staying higher for longer to help take out capacity
Finally, Michael gave a long list of airlines that he thinks will no longer be independent
or around within a few years. So the view appears to be a European sector heading for 4-5 large companies.

Clearly these are guesstimates.
Andyagogo
Posts: 1,044
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:9.946
Lufthansa
23 May '19
One of the interesting comments Michael made was on Lufthansa.
He appeared to suggest their low cost subsidiary may be selling sests below cost
and EU authorities appear unconcerned about their acquisitions.
I think the phrase was along the lines of .they appear to be able to buy whatever they want.
Andyagogo
Posts: 1,044
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.00
RE: well chaps
23 May '19
I'm guessing the EZJ SP yesterday is at least partly attributable to possible UKX demotion?.

I listened to the RYA results webcast and Q&A, available on the RYA investor relations site,
some interesting points.

Intend to add RYA in very small amounts on any continuing weakness.
The reason for adding very slowly is tbh I have little confidence in any ability
to call the SP, given politics and the b word.

Off topic - Brilliant documentary on Thatcher BBC2,
watched the first episode late last night. Love or loathe her. It's a great watch.
Daytradenovice
Posts: 2,176
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.175
RE: well chaps
23 May '19
i would like to see mikey announce a special divi, with maybe a move to a conservative regular divi, say 2%. would open rya up to a whole new class of investors then which wouldnt be a bad thing, obviously need to trim the buyback a little to pay for it but it dont think that would be a bad thing.

As for treason may, she surely must be gone this next week or so, admire her stoisism and staying power, ut she aint no maggie and her ears just dont work while her mouth promises and promises then fails to have the gumption to delivery repeatedly. I quite fancy Boris personally to take over, a leaver not remainer and while appearing quite a buffoon he clearly isnt a stupid man, running London (water cannon excepted) well from what i recall and internationally known and experienced.

In the meantime, i think mikeys poorer performing main competitor is looking quite cheap now, may pick up a few if it gets to 900 for a rinse and repeat of 2016, which will surely happen when brexshit is finally done either way.
sage
Posts: 60,761
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.175
well chaps
22 May '19
not so bad.The jet taking a nearly 6% fall! Remarkable. Be good if John Camembert could go on there and explain why? with his depth of experience and knowledge.

My own view is it`s cruddy out there for airlines so RYA is the best equipped to ride out the storm.Maybe IAG can rely on it`s business class regulars to keep them going.Any marginal tiddlers are probably already in trouble.
Staying above ten is now an achievement!
As for Teresa , she was installed by the 22 committee to basically thwart the vote..now they use her as a whipping boy/girl.It was ever thus.The euro elections will be interesting,the only clear protest among about 15 candidates is the brexit party.I suspect many will jump on that wagon.The tories are in a hell of a mess and need a strong leader.Sadly none seem to exist.Boris might have had a chance if he had not spent so much time on Have I got news for you!
Andyagogo
Posts: 1,044
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.175
RE: Andy I think
22 May '19
Sage, many thanks for the view, appreciated.
Would think along similar lines.

Breaking news...reports the Cabinet turning against May.
sage
Posts: 60,761
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.115
Andy I think
22 May '19
for eg the 20% pilot rise will be Ruthlessly garnered elsewhere ,for eg airport rates.As Mikey says they are queueing up to get RYA business.I doubt anyone will get near their low costs advantage despite unionisation.EZJ have had troubles with Unite before.None lately.Once those MAX 8`s start kicking in by say, end of next year? and another buyback next year there will be less than a billion shares in issue,none in treasury,and costs will be falling again.

When you have a fleet of 450 aircraft you get looked after …..
Andyagogo
Posts: 1,044
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.125
The longer term bear case ...
22 May '19
The bear case appears to be RYA's cost advantage re competitors
is being eroded away- union recognition etc.

Now I'm not an industry expert or anyway near
so rely on the figures that RYA quote.

From those figures (and some may be cherry picked?) they appear to
show their cost advantage growing, rather than decreasing.

Ultimately reducing the share count boosts earnings per share, unless profitability
is in longer term decline. Next PLC one of the better UK examples.
Daytradenovice
Posts: 2,176
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.145
RE: yeh
22 May '19
he or his family have probably bought back all those shares he sold not so long back at a substantial discount, money goes to money after all.
Andyagogo
Posts: 1,044
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.26
RE: Andy
22 May '19
I paged back on the company RNS updates and looked at the share
count from late 2007, to now, and RYA have significantly reduced the shares outstanding.
I'm surprised they don't highlight the share count numbers on presentations,
they tend to reference the amount of money returned.

Personally prefer pessimism and caution, as it often presents better buying opportunities.
The big proviso is your logic for buying needs to be validated, ultimately.
sage
Posts: 60,761
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.255
yeh
22 May '19
almost like he had his tongue firmly in the cheek."please do not buy ,we want them as cheap as we can get them!)

I`d love to add but need the cash for renovations next door.We might have a small dabble.

Good luck with the surgery pal.You are not missing any fish trust me!
Daytradenovice
Posts: 2,176
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.205
RE: Daytrader
22 May '19
due exploratory surgery sometime today, will be here a while i think yet. Treason May firmly shown he remain colours then, that women is unbeleivable (literally). im guessing a minority labour government at the next GE, with maybe the two party system given a good shake up at long long last.

Mikeys comment about 'not buying' i find very odd, why would a business say that after seeing its price plunge so much is just beyond me, a bit of mikey psycology in play there somewhere i feel. Am still not going to add or reduce down though, still see this brexit causing more trouble yet given Mays dopey latest dictat.
sage
Posts: 60,761
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.195
Daytrader
22 May '19
Well Treason May`s new plan finally brings us and exposes what the brudy politicos have been angling for since the British people gave the "wrong answer" in the referendum. If it goes through another vote to "get it right" and give the right answer. Brudy disgrace...

They let you out yet pal? You are missing the sunshine.
sage
Posts: 60,761
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.275
Andy
22 May '19
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48332849

My take is considering staff costs and Lauda set up expenses the results were not too bad.There is an element of strike damage in there and the 700 mill buy back is very good news.They can hoover up an awful lot of shares @ current prices.
With their lowest cost factor in Europe(by a long way!) Mikey is right that they will benefit hugely from more consolidation and more airlines going to the wall is inevitable imo.They are sensibly hedged and given a clear year without strikes ATC action etc..mikey`s pessimistic tone may apply to other airlines more than RYA.
The ambition to grow the company and the ruthless way they go about it is admirable for shareholders.
I found the comment re "hold your orders" while we buy back amusing. As usual when RYA buyback there are all sorts of games going on with shorters and mkt players. One thing is certain, they will be making a big dent in the sharecount this year at these prices.
Andyagogo
Posts: 1,044
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.40
IC say Sell
22 May '19
In a nutshell...almost certain more short term pain is on the way..

As a contra indicator, that may be a positive.

Still not managed to read the full LEX post results article,
It may focus on the increasing non fuel costs that RYA faces.
joebop
Posts: 3,707
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.45
RE: Davy
21 May '19
Ryanair in talks with Boeing on 737 Max compensation

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ryanair-in-talks-with-boeing-on-737-max-compensation-38131423.html

Shares in Ryanair tumbled more than 5.3pc in early trading, even as it announced a €700m share buyback.

"The shares are very lowly priced," said Mr O'Leary. They're down more than a third in the past year.

"This is not a time when anybody else should be buying shares," he said.

"I would ask you to wait until we've completed our share buyback before you start placing your orders."
Andyagogo
Posts: 1,044
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.34
Davy
21 May '19
Has cut their 2020 RYA earnings forecast by 9%, I don't have the exact numbers.
Andyagogo
Posts: 1,044
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:10.295
RE: I think if RYA are struggling
20 May '19
I was hoping for some comment in the FT Markets live, but did not get
a mention. Perhaps tomorrow.

Comment from the FT company section appears to be ...RyanAir is intent
on winning any fares price war and intends to continue to grow as quickly as possible.
Short/medium term pain, for longer term gain.

Ultimately it's going to take further airline failures for that strategy to pay off.




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