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HULLBIST
BULL SH..
My take on this is that it's Navitas business model to reduce risk significantly by investing in projects that are already discovered. This way there is not really a risk in IF it get's developed, but only in WHEN and if it will be on budget. What I also like is that Gideon is someone that delivers time and time again. If we take his word, this will mean that Sealion will definitely be developed (otherwise Navitas wouldn't even have participated) and that it will be very likely that it will be on time and on/under budget.
Part 4:
That you encounter what you expected to encounter because with the ground it's very hard to influence everything else can be arranged why run to additional projects because in the end a company or a partnership in this case like Nevitas is built from a portfolio of projects that's exactly what I did also in Israel there was Yam Tatis people like you asked me why are you going to Tamar isn’t Yam Tatis enough if we hadn't gone to Tamar where would we be today as a country why after Tamar are we going to Leviathan isn’t Tamar enough what was your reach to some limits to exploit our relative advantage to think outside the box which is a cliché but in our case let's mark it I can tell you that around the world we are seen as a company that is a kind of magic but what’s important the ability to do it again and again the other important thing is the right timing of the projects not to cash too much in investments in a project until the project is not ripe and that's something we did in the past and we are doing it today in Nevit that’s another advantage that the institutional bodies told me before a conversation with you that you manage to achieve financial closure before before the initial investments the investments are actually already closed in advance how do you do that against the I'll show you it was very very challenging especially with Shennanduah in 2021 when ESG someone remembers those three letters ESG once were very relevant recently less popular but people refrained from lending bodies banks filled up from raising for a fossil project because of the ESG today that has changed I can tell you that all the bodies all the bodies even those that previously refrained today are sitting in Nevitas both in equity and in debt it gives us tremendous power without the Israeli equity market we wouldn't be able to I see it generally as a partnership between us to the capital market in Israel without them we wouldn't reach where we are arriving and we specialize in financial closures of project developments and in 20 21 when there was the greatest difficulty we managed to close the funding for us and for our partners for the project Shennanduah I commend you continue success well done on the entrepreneurship and I think the letter of course that happened deserves to you with grace well done thank you very much and I also want to wish everyone a happy and kosher holiday and may we all know good news and the chair of Elijah the prophet that we always keep just in this case I think it's the chair of the captives and the abducted that we all hope will return in bitterness.
Part 3:
I did a very rough calculation at the bottom line there will be half a billion at the minimum even a bit more we're talking about close to two billion shekels the value of the partnerships is 4 billion shekels what are the investors missing see I think there's a process that we see it you talked about the dramatic rise right that happened this year we went up on the stock exchange by 85% this year we went up by an order of magnitude of 20% so eventually here the market matures to recognize the economic potential and the realization of the economic potential and that's the strength of entrepreneurs by the way there were entrepreneurs here before me who really established here a magnificent industry and they also saw before the market so in a sense we see before the market but I ah that's apropos whether to sell or buy tomorrow morning so as you see me I run for long distances I don't run for short distances so I take a long-term view I very much believe of course in Nets as I believed before in what I did in Delek in Avner and in Delek Drilling at the time what is called today Vament so I think that this potential we are definitely able to realize again in a very unique tag in the world not of renewables here most of the income was from renewables but in the old good fossil world which by the way will remain with us for many many more years and I think there are tremendous opportunities there a value of 10 billion shekels for Nevitas within two three years are possible in your opinion I don't give forecasts but I say again we publish numbers and numbers based on reports done by third parties our task is to realize them but as you said assuming those numbers materialize then the arithmetic is very very simple dividends to investors we said that in our opinion when we are very close to the start of the operation of Shennanduah we will definitely publish a dividend policy as we think we are definitely moving from a phase from a certain company to a company that also knows to distribute dividends so this is definitely something that is in our work plan what risk could there be that the oil production of the project I don't see a risk that will prevent the production but as I said in mega projects always there can be time delays and there can always be additional costs but you have to remember that this project is almost there we have already invested 70% of the money so it is a project that is already in very very very advanced stages of ripening and the biggest risks always are underground and we in this drilling have already drilled three out of four development drillings and this is the risk that always worries me the most when you drill a development drilling.
Part 2:
So wait so let me return to the numbers with your permission the numbers say something like taking the profit and actually valuing it today as Gideon said there is risk there's a development risk still existing but if you adjust it with an interest rate of 10% it reaches values of billions of dollars the part of Nets will take the financing take the funding take other things you still arrive at a value that is dramatically higher than the current value despite a rise of 2.5 times in the stock price it's not a recommendation of course there are risks a small risk realized recently yes there was an accident during the construction of one of the facilities supposed to be part of the project we reported that it's not significant and also reported on a slight delay in the start of production but these are mega projects and mega projects have their complexities but the important point is that there is certainty that Shennanduah will be developed there can always be delays there can always be additional costs although all the projects I developed or was involved in including Tamar including Yam Tatis including Leviathan and also a project in Caskin of Nevitas abroad finished on time and on budget so I'm very good in this regard but anyone who renovated a bathroom at home or I would say a kitchen knows there can be such and other issues but if you take first-line contractors these projects end and end successfully it's like building a power station okay the end is supposed to be in 20-25 the start of production from Shennanduah which is our flagship project the start of production is supposed to be in the second quarter of 2025 okay the year of full production is supposed to yield with the current oil price over a billion dollars in revenue all Nets with the start of production from Shennanduah all the parameters any parameter you choose the production per day the revenue all parameters you choose will be multiplied by about 10 times 10 the moment Shennanduah starts to produce and we already have the project after Shennanduah which is the Silyn project which is the next big thing you’re not resting why rest so many partners on entrepreneurship really but just to understand what the market is missing if at all because usually the market is correct we have a year full of production revenues of a billion.
Here's a translation Part 1:
Inviting Avishai Ovadia for a discussion with Gideon. Tadmor, the founder and head of Jets Tadmor, who was in management under the management of Delek Group during the discovery of gas at Tamar. He established Nevita which purchased drilling rights worldwide and enhanced them, this is reflected in significant value creation. The stock has risen by 2.5 times year-over-year to a value of 4 billion shekels. Where do we go from here? Hello, how are you? Thanks for coming, I'm glad you’re all settling into the chairs here, it seems to me, Tzachi, that’s you, Gideon. I want to start with a question to the audience. A theoretical question: You invested in a stock that rose by 150%—do you think the chance of staying with it is high or low, and in your opinion, high? Good, you know what I’m aiming for but the natural choice, let’s call it that, of investors after a stock rises 150% to 200% is to cash out, and rightly so it usually means there are usually drops after rises, right? If the value has already increased then why keep holding? There are other things I'm saying this without necessarily giving advice or stating anything, but I’m saying it in continuation to the fact that last night I read the reports of Nevitas. Ah, and about a year or a year and a half ago we followed them and saw very significant potential especially in one of the largest drilling projects we of course, we write what we believe in, it has risen since and I told myself last night for sure it’s nearing its peak but I keep reading, and not just reading, there are very significant tables that speak of very significant saturations. Okay, I will do it very roughly take the expected profit if and when the partnership reaches the end of the drilling in what’s called Shennanduah. Shennanduah, I keep getting it a little wrong I'm dyslexic, I understand you’re promoting now you’re encouraging, ah so it’s not a drilling it’s a project and it needs explaining because it’s very important it’s part of our strategy we’re not looking for oil we develop and produce and therefore it’s not theoretical the challenge is to develop which is the non-binary challenge it’s about finding but the challenge to develop is much less challenging in that sense if you take financing for it maybe one of the arbitrage situations known to them the ability actually to go to the Israeli capital market and bring from it both equity and especially debt for the development of projects that have already been discovered that’s what we know how to do by the way it’s a strategy I think is unique in the world in this upstream sector so these numbers actually represent the NPV.
Citizen,
Turn the subtitles on by pressing the CC button. Then press the "cog " ( settings) button and you should have an option to click subtitles and then auto translate. Click the desired language and the subtitles will appear. Its a bit flakey for me so I had to continue to refresh the translation by refreshing the CC button.
Hope that helps
Mogger
'Hullbist
Posted in: RKH
Posts: 75
Price: 15.76
No Opinion
getting out whilst i still got enough for decent holiday bye25 Nov 2019 21:01
well done you have all finally broke me new to this really but i cant take any more 27k down the drain over approx 6 years cant wait no longer
good luck anyone who stays in'
How do you get the subtitles to be in English?
MD, It's reassuring to know your privy to Navitas's finance package for SL 👍
Mogger, Finance isn't an issue....Regards
All,
Unless you want to practice your Hebrew, I suggest turning on the subtitles. Not much information about Sea Lion but at the end you will hear how confident he is regarding the financing of future projects.
Mogger
https://youtu.be/7iiFlzqWoxQ?si=OSUo5nzgq5TsT9Qs
**I have been here over 10 years, today i finally sold my 15773 shares at a loss of £3K**
Unbelievable!!
The strangest of timing to sell after 10 years of holding I have to say. We are closer now to the prize than we ever were, another year and we could all be millionaires Rodney.
GLA
Well that knocks Equinox off the list of farm-in partners and probably Valaris off the list also! Plus the basin they are drilling is approx 800km to 1000km to the north of Sea Lion, it's unlikely they are in communication!!!!
;-)
But then we wouldn't need a drillship anyway, it would be overkill for the pretty simple development drilling we need, 35days to 45days per well.
Saying that, I am sure I read/heard somewhere what a drillship, although expensive on the day rate, did have some cost savings over a semisubmersible. Basically because it can move around under it's own steam, thus not needing the support vessels a semisubmersible would.
It would also be advantageous if Navitas wanted to take a share in Darwin and wanted to nip down there and do a couple of appraisals during down time! It might also suit having a higher spec'd rig to drill Isobel as from memory it was higher pressure.
I suppose it depends on how the numbers stack up, a drill ship tootling across for South Africa rather than a semi being brought from further away, with tugs, moving at a much slower pace; a drillship being able to manoeuvre itself and drill faster and then head off after 11 wells, (or 14 if you could one on Isoble and a couple on Darwin).
Probably just me daydreaming again, but stranger things have happened at sea!
LTT
I have been here over 10 years, today i finally sold my 15773 shares at a loss of £3K its been interesting reading over the years and name changes etc have humoured me
i wish you all the best of luck but im finally bored
good luck all
Valaris D17 Drillship is moving down towards Falklands offshore Argentina arriving tomorrow to start drilling. Targeting 1 billion barrels.
Equinor in April will begin drilling the Argerich-1 exploration well in the CAN 100 block in the North Argentinian basin, offshore Argentina.
The well will be drilled 315 km from the port of Mar del Plata by the Valaris DS-17 drillship in 1,527 m water depth. It will be the first to be drilled in the country in ultra-deep waters. The well is expected to reach about 2,500 m in depth and 106 cm in diameter at the sediment surface. Drilling work is estimated to take 55-65 days.
If the presence of oil is confirmed, Equinor and partners are expected to carry out an appraisal campaign in 2025 to gather technical data including field size and potential productivity.
The Argerich project is operated by Equinor with 35% interest. Partners are YPF (35%) and Shell plc (30%).
The article refers to an agreement from 2016, which was then " torn-up " by the Argies in 2023 - no new news.
R1234,
It doesn’t say much of anything except that he has been rehired to head up a different organisation based in Geneva, Switzerland.
Nothing about relaxing Argentina’s stance on the Falklands I’m afraid.
LTT
Does this mean that those assisting in FI hydrocarbons will no longer face sanctions? I suspect the threat of sanctions was what made Harbour Energy pull out.
It’s a good sign, but a little misleading as the ambassador has been brought on to do a new roll, nothing to do with the Falklands. They are just rehashing the controversy surrounding the previous deal that was torn up.
LTT
Very good news!
“In a positive spirit, both sides agreed to set up a dialogue to improve cooperation on South Atlantic issues of mutual interest. Both governments agreed that the formula on sovereignty in paragraph 2 of the Joint Statement of 19 October 1989 applies to this Joint Communique and to its consequences. In this context it was agreed to take the appropriate measures to remove all obstacles limiting the economic growth and sustainable development of the Falkland Islands, including in trade, fishing, shipping and hydrocarbons. Both parties emphasised the benefits of cooperation and positive engagement for all concerned.
"Macri administration wanted improved political, trade, culture relations with UK and Point 10 referred to the South Atlantic and the Falkland Islands, which made the Kirchnerites furious and were prepared to ignore it, particularly mentions of helping promote and develop the Islands economy."
https://en.mercopress.com/2024/04/22/milei-reinstates-ambassador-foradori-who-signed-the-falklands-2016-joint-communique
Surely the agreement to settle any tax due later (IF of course there is any) included Rkh trading normally in the meantime and was all TO ENABLE Sea Lion to happen. FIG need to keep to that agreement, not renege on Rkh trading normally in the meantime, and accept clarification of the wording to reflect the "meeting of minds" at the time of the agreement. That meeting of minds IS the contract that's actually in place. It presumably could be one interpretation of the existing wording. Simply needs clarification. All, as before, to enable SL including Rkh funding its equity share.
That's my tuppence worth for now!
After the farm out to Premier, there were a few wells drilled. Did RKH use some of the carry or did they pay their share completely themselves ?
Rkh no longer owe FIG any tax as the tax was owed on the free carry that they never received.
So it's zero tax owed on a free carry of zero !
The free carry went in 2021 when the new deal was struck with Navitas but FIG have not yet accepted the ammendment.
Its difficult to understand why FIG still haven't accepted this seemingly simple amnendment after 3 years as it seems relatively clear cut,being,No Free Carry = No Free Carry Tax.Simples !