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But it had you Haggis, ramping the a*se out of it, preaching your bill from your pulpit every day. Ah the good old days!
My views on MCap following Morocco success and commercial supply are that it will be a lot higher than just the basic multiple of earnings.
On Morocco success we will have two commercially proven fuels, one of them a low carbon fuel, plus a commercial supply agreement, which is worth far more from an investment perspective than just the revenues, as it gives QFI a springboard to a lot more supply to other clients waiting in line, clients that will be given the test data from Morocco as soon as it is available.
Becoming a self sustaining company also brings in a lot more investment into the stock, as fear of dilution is removed.
I can easily see QFI being valued at £250m to £350m following Morocco supply agreement.
Look back at the MCap years ago when Maersk trial was starting and Saudi was getting closer to a trial. That is a big hint as to where investors would value the stock IMVHO. In 2013 QFI hit 50p per share, and at that time had 772.9m shares in issue, so was valued at £386.45m, with no commercial fuel and no revenues.
Has some one other a better assumptions? What do you think the potential is for Morocco, MSC, total Market, potential market Share, MCAP, SP?
If we look for the royalty rates …„ According to Upcounsel, a nationwide legal services company, the industries with the highest average royalty rates are software (9.6%), energy and environment (8%), and health care equipment and products (6.4%). The industries with the lowest average royalty rates are automotive (3.3%), aerospace (4%), and chemicals (4.3%).“ …. Is it 10GBP or 50GBP of 300-400GBP/t? This is the question…. But it doesn’t matter, what matters, we have just with Morocco a stable business, what then can happen if MSC and others jump in, the SP I can not even calculate because it is a potential function :D
If my memory serves me well, I believe QFI have exclusive rights from Nouryon to supply the additives for all oil in water emulsion fuels. That gives us an additional avenue of control and income stream.
And do not forget, we are not investing in a supplier of fuels. We are investing in a technology company what will sell not the product/fuel, but the licenses and max equipment. So the costs for QFI are the costs of running a company, but not additives, equipment…..
I used 10GBP per t for QFI for this numbers, one week ago it was mentioned that this number would be 50GBP… so I calculated with minimum numbers and this should stay for QFI as nett income…. We will see what will be, but this are my assumptions and predictions, you can make yours…. And I would be happy to see them…
Just to clarify, is it about our costs and would it completely derisk the business or have you forgotten to remove the production and material costs of the product to replicate that revenue
Yes, that's about our costs so completely derisks the business for a start.
2-5kpbd states in the presentation. So 320-800m3, with density abbaut 1.05 t/m3…. So yes I was to high… but still is 10000-42000 GBP/day or min 3 000 000/y… what is from one customer enough for us :D …. Thanks for a push, that I check the sources :)
Dgdg1 I’m not sure, but I think it was once on this forum. What number do you have?
Nejc, where did you get that figure that Morocco is 1500 tons a day - I was under the impression that it was less?
Agree on that entirely, Salinger. Both of these are roadblocks, but it's becoming clear that the drydocking part should (hopefully?) be unblocked sooner rather than later.
Some “guidance” on who the fuel supplier is would go a long way to making it feel a tad more real. The vessel is probably 90% ready for LONO as she stands today. Docking adds a scrubber which helps, but progress on the fuel supply partner is critical or we’re not going anywhere.
It has been frustrating, hasn't it!
There is a huge shortage/backlog of dry dock capacity caused by Xi's (recently-cancelled) "Zero C19" policy that shut down and quarantined dockyards every time a single person tested positive for C19 — as you can imagine, that basically meant docks were closed more often than they were open.
There were cases that you can search on YouTube of crews being stuck in China aboard their docked vessels for several months and unable to leave. Kafkaesque nightmare.
Anyway, I suspect MSC will seek another short extension from Lloyds Register in Mauritius or Singapore, as they'll not want to run the clock down too much further before heading towards China.
Clearly, I hope that means they are imminently seeking to take her into drydock (having swapped her route to take her towards China). Of course, there's a chance the China route aspect is coincidental, and we'll only know for sure afterwards — but I'm optimistic on this one.
Speculation:
- Timing would align with arrival to dry dock in early April, given the sailing distances and slow ports. This would be in line with Q2 guidance (though noting that guidance has typically been extremely inaccurate).
- Typically only 2-3 weeks docking period, even for deep overhauls which would include scrubber retrofits.
We've always known that. This is down to MSC to push things harder with fuel suppliers on our behalf and show so commitment by at least getting the ship in dry Dock instead of trying to screw every last penny out it before doing so. One ship out of nearly 600 and and **** poor shape and still we wait for some commitment.
We are a tiny fish Vince
Here’s a bit on the possibilities around the Green Corridors that MSC discussed. Clearly MSC need fuel storage facilities, refiners, bunkering partners, buyers and sellers, rules and regulations even in order to make a new fuel jive along a global route.
https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/green-corridors-cop27/
A key bit:
Opportunities & challenges
One of the main reasons to develop Green Corridors is that it creates the possibility to work on specific routes that are more feasible than others, whether because of economics or policy or existing momentum among stakeholders. Working on specific routes also means a limited number of cargo types, vessel types and port calls, for instance, which also makes it easier to commit to certain fuels and technologies.
It’s coming together for us and we are in great company!
Good luck with your investment
This year eh Rodney?
https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/701657-worlds-largest-shipping-firm-willing-and-ready-to-take-on-alternative-fuels
Great, so stop talking and get on with it. Starting with announcements of dry docking and fuel supply.
I have written two numbers 3.9-7,1 GBX for Morocco… for MSC we are fast upwards 1000GBX
Great find AKHM, if only Quadrise was mentioned - now that would have been lovely!
OHS
Great but what would the share price look like? I wasn’t good at maths sorry
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/msc-we-are-willing-and-ready-to-further-adopt-alternative-fuels/
Maybe this was already posted. Another hint QFI maybe part of their bigger plan.
If we add QFI tax credit… and add 20 up for future…. Let say MCAP of 100mil or 0.071 is possible too just with Morocco.
Morocco uses 1500 t/d… so if we say for QFI 10 gbp/t… we have 5475000 GBP/y from it…. So the MCAp of 54750000 is possible with Morocco, or SP 0.039 GBP….
I was posting as Thezigster on the forum but not looked-in for ages
All well thank you
Life is good, QFI could help it though
I’ve got a lot riding on this . . .