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Petrofac Share Chat (PFC)



Share Price: 569.60Bid: 570.40Ask: 571.00Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Petrofac
Spread: 0.60Spread as %: 0.11%Open: 575.80High: 588.40Low: 568.40Yesterday’s Close: 569.60


Share Discussion for Petrofac


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alto1
Posts: 488
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:569.60
RE oil
Sat 22:41
yep the problem is it fecks pfc with it. my broker seems to think oil will retrace to highs again so pfc will probably rise with it. so it might not be all bad. but the problem is pfc just cant hold it's gains when oil takes a hit . sometimes pfc tracks oil so much you might as well take a long or short position on oil itself
 
Pokerchips
Posts: 4,288
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:569.60
RE: RE oil
Sat 22:09
"Saudi and Russia are in discussion of a potential to increase oil production by 1 million b/d IF there are more supplies lost from Venezuela and Iran."

They do this to try and wrong foot the market and keep the speculators under stress..

Wait now for Russia to say they have no plans to increase supply....to leave everyone confused..

It is all part of the game....
alto1
Posts: 488
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:569.60
RE oil
Sat 19:59
Oil markets can often move so much so fast that it's hard to get your handle on what's really going on.

For example, WTI is currently trading below $68/bbl today down more than $4/bbl since last week. The reason?

Saudi and Russia are in discussion of a potential to increase oil production by 1 million b/d IF there are more supplies lost from Venezuela and Iran.

But you won't read the "if there are more supplies lost from Venezuela and Iran" commentary from most of the headlines. No, you will just read the part talking about Saudi and Russia potentially increasing oil production by 1 million b/d. We won't even mention the fact that this is still in discussion, and the 1 million b/d number was just a figure thrown out of thin air to bait the journalists.

Nonetheless, the severe climb we've seen in energy equities and oil needed "a reason" to sell, and as we wrote in our OMD earlier in the week titled, "Oil - What To Look For Next?"

Overall, you will see weak hands sell into these headlines about the potential for OPEC to discard the production cut agreement, but if you understand our thesis (as detailed here), we do not think OPEC will exit the production cut agreement. The basic understanding here is that we do not believe this is a production cut, to begin with, but a mere pullback from max capacity.

So, are we concerned that Saudi and Russia are even contemplating increasing production by 1 million b/d?
No, and here's why.

There are several variables in the oil outlook that wasn't there at the end of 2017 when we did our price forecast.

1. Permian production bottleneck is worse than it appears.

Midland basin differential hit a high of -~18/bbl yesterday. This is likely manifesting itself into potential shut-ins over the summer if takeaway capacity lags the increase in production.

US oil production is a big growth engine for non-OPEC supply growth this year, so any setback will show stagnant production growth for at least a few months, which will translate into supplies lost and lower storage.

In addition, we have recently compiled data from Kpler to match the difference in actual exports versus EIA's stated US crude exports, and we find this staggering divergence:

What you see in the chart above is that EIA has massively overestimated US crude exports since April 20th. As a result, we have seen the overestimation of demand turn itself into a positive adjustment factor.

Now if you broke this into a table, this is what it looks like compared to adjustment factor:

If it is true that EIA has overestimated exports on average by 393k b/d since April 20, and the adjustment factor has only averaged +190k b/d, the 200k b/d difference could be explained by overstated supplies. (For discussion on adjustment factor, please see this write-up.) This then could go on to explain that EIA's weekly US oil production model of 10.7+ million b/d may be overstated.

How would we know
APBunny
Posts: 61
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:569.60
RE: re infonly
Sat 15:44
ifonly: you're right, too slow, 18 years and counting is a long time to wait! :) :/ But if I sold LLOY now I think I'd get about 500 quid, though perhaps you'd say better to put another 500 into PFC! Still, could be worse, at least I don't have a bank a/c with TSB.

Shads: I wouldn't say it hurts, just disappoints. I'd said goodbye to the cash, expected a lifetime of nice divs in return. Back then what could be more solid than a bank, eh? No, I'm not averaging down. Each purchase I make I try to regard as a totally new purchase, "is this a share that I think is worth buying at this price". I've bought into PFC at various prices from 363 to 628, but each time trying to think about it afresh.

Of course Lloyds might close some bank branches, drill in the cellars, and hit oil. I'd regret selling them! ;)
Warthog4
Posts: 790
Answer
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:569.60
RE: tempted to get back in here
Sat 11:24
Maybe, just maybe,because after a flurry of new activity in March/early April, nothing since albeit early days yet: oil wobbling a bit:Trump making his usual gaffs and, finally because the SFO has only an interim Director who may be less likely to commit to instigating major developments in investigations, which could result in an extended process?
Just a thought or two. If none of the above then I'm stumped.
ifonly1
Posts: 2,470
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:569.60
RE: my opinion
Sat 10:55
glad hear that,i was down over 4k in this stock a while back it recovered and i sold for a healthy profit,i am down again so should not panic as i been here before,always a buyer when you sell so that tells you something.
bewareshadows
Posts: 688
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:569.60
RE: re infonly
Sat 10:51
Damn 500p.

Now that has to hurt. But not many people can anticipate a game changer like a banking crash.

That would take some averaging down to recover.
bakhyt
Posts: 85
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:569.60
my opinion
Sat 10:43
Been in this share for over five years , have even worked for the company once , payed over 11.50 for some shares , had a average of 8.40 before the crash , have since averaged down to 5,9 with a holding of 25K shares , this is a solid company which will recover , but its not a share for the day traders or the weak who panic at every sudden move , this is a share for the long term , when STO is resolved and more large contracts are signed you will see a big rise in the SP , weather its this year or next year who knows , but it will happen , I then see the dividend back above 6 percent and probably a bonus divi when all the monies are in from the various disinvestment's
ifonly1
Posts: 2,470
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:569.60
RE: re infonly
Sat 10:42
bunny hard to believe they were that price,i have been in and out of lloyds afew times made afew small profits,just to slow for me.
APBunny
Posts: 61
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:569.60
RE: re infonly
Sat 10:25
Bought Lloyds at 85p... I wish. Mine are from back when they were over 500, around Y2K. Worth so little now it's hardly worth selling.




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