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Hey guys. Too many emotions here. As someone who has done very well investing low (RR, Invididia more recently even ITV, some others long list, I wait on a few but most l
Glowacki
You put a sell at top of your post
so you own no Metro shares correct
It's bad enough making a loss for yet another year,but what makes Metro bank investable is is what the CEO said with regard to 2024.....that costs of continuing restructuring will carry thru and impact on 2024 profits..
But then if my auntie had 8lls she's be my uncle.
Surly some of the problems lies with the CFO & to bring up 2+2 =4 not 7
The CEO should go also as has the old CFO
If the CEO had raised equity capital before the cliff edge of refinancing ,retail investors would not have been diluted down to 25% of the ownership
If the CEO had not promised the market IRB and then had to retract prompting a run on the bank we would have £1.5b more current accounts and atleast £70m more income
If the bank had actually hedged its assets so that its treasury book was yielding base+20bp not base -450bp and its mortgages base + 100 not base -250bp we would have had another £200m of income...
Then by my calculations the share price would be somewhere close to £3.50 share.
But then if my auntie had 8lls she's be my uncle.
Due to one off factors … namely the need to stop outflows from last year." So again. break that down. We can see that the bank lost £1.5b of current accounts which cost 0%
Yes the outflow was due to media news that Metro was / needed bailing out/brought out.
So yes people panic when there money is in danger
I know i would take my money out but hopeful things have calmed down & with these New branch's opening up North Metro can start saying good bye to the passed
Agree re Peston. Incidentally did you see the opening line on the BBC article today?
"Metro Bank is to end seven-day trading in all its branches and cut about 1,000 jobs after reporting huge losses."
I'm pretty down on management but "huge losses" is not a sensible way of presenting it. I hope they correct that.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68554199
“Yes if there were no outflows due to Metro going bust they may have turned a profit‘
I’ve yet to forgive Robert Peston for the run on Northern Rock or his leaking of insider information on the takeover of HBOS - where the fears incurred costs.
Don’t have much in so didn't pay attention to the sell off last year but steadily got the average down from 70p to 43p as a bit of day trading fun post December.
Curiously enough, I find my levels of concentration proportional to the amount invested.
"Meanwhile, think about demanding accuracy whilst being sloppy about stating Q4 losses … these were due to one off factors … namely the need to stop outflows from last year." So again. break that down. We can see that the bank lost £1.5b of current accounts which cost 0%. They probably lost a chunk of other low cost instant access savings accounts which we cant see yet. The bank has lost those deposits which it could park in cash at 5.25% and make >£70m That is not a one off. It has lost that income until it gets that volume of low cost deposits back.
WHat the bank chose to do was to keep the cash at 5.25% and raise new deposits at a loss leading price to fund it. they could have raised a load of deposits last year if they wanted to lose money. But they decided not to. Presumably they decided to lose some money in Q4 because they preffered the optics of a growing deposit base, rather than shining a light on the deposit outflows in October.. But the eye roll of the CFO said it all. They clearly got a ton of new deposits in at a loss, and its killing NIM. They can roll off the excess but they can't get £1.5 of Non-interest bearing balances back any time soon. So again, sorry to have to explain the basics of banking to people, but the losses are not one off. they are driven by the mix shift in deposits driven by outflows of low cost deposits. The bank needs to get them back- but there is no credible strategy to do so. Slashing costs by firing all the nice people in the front line isn't helping there that is for sure
Twogood has been wrong from the outset, proof all there. I really need to learn to ignore but can't help having a laugh at times
Yes if there were no outflows due to News That Metro going bust they may have turned a profit
Meanwhile, think about demanding accuracy whilst being sloppy about stating Q4 losses … these were due to one off factors … namely the need to stop outflows from last year.
Yes if there were no outflows due to Metro going bust they may have turned a profit
And you TwoGood2Die have the cheek to call others deluded when you think Metro is valued at over a billion lmao! You sir are out of touch with reality.
A loss is a loss whichever way you slice it. There are some posts here clearly hoping for unicorns and rainbows - good luck with that you'll need it.
Losses that average £10m a month in Q4 …. Explained in the results from the shenanigans last year …. I’m still bemused at METRO booking a profit for 2023 that is presumably taxable or at least offsets losses from previous years .,.. only about 10% of firms historically post statutory profit ahead of underlying profit so I found out late this morning and I’m annoyed I didn’t dig further earlier … but such is life, one takes it on the chin and moves on.
Meanwhile, think about demanding accuracy whilst being sloppy about stating Q4 losses … these were due to one off factors … namely the need to stop outflows from last year.
Gilinksi planning to grow Metro Bank & the new CFO who has held some good positions in Banking will turn Metro around.
Metro need to bring in more account holders were they can earn a little on deposits .
Shame they had the out flow of funds as imo they might have made a profit ?
Not a new poster. You may remember back in November I was pointing out that your post where you said "Gilinksi planning to grow Metro Bank through acquisitions thereby strengthening the balance sheet and doubling revenues and profits that's what the £3 billion mortgage book sale will fund something the current mgt team failed to deliver following the last mortgage book sale to NatWest..." contained a fundamental misunderstanding of what the sale would do to the bank's capital position (i.e. it resulted in less rather than more core equity-doh- which was way they abandoned it). Today i am pointing out that a statutory profit built on a one off haircut to Tier2 was not going to prompt a re-rate because it actually exposed ynderlying losses of £10m a month in Q4. Both of these suggest i do infact know what i am talking about. But otherwise you raise some great points, reflecting i am sure, a firm grasp of financial analysis.
Me too. It's held support, so I've gone long on MTRO, today.
At a bit over 32p using up most of previous profits to add to already held 'for free' shares to give a round xx,xxx shares now held 'for free'.
This is a tiny for fun holding for me, so not too bothered if Metro fail to get their house in order. Shareholders with larger stakes will of course keep a closer interest. Good luck
Cyberpuppy
"Cyberdoggy
Posts: 556
Price: 34.25
No Opinion
RE: What negative nonsenseToday 10:46
Imo, metro will be taken private for less than the current market cap, just not sure for how much less than current cap, or when that will be, but that's my opinion on what the future holds"
Deluded!
Gilinksi won't be selling at a loss lol!
Chatbox when you know what you are talking about pls cone back otherwise suggest you jog on with your short position being a new poster just poped up on results day!
Despite the turmoil in October with the refinancing and recapitalisation the underlying loss was telatively small and an improvement of 67% on prior year losses with a £30m statutory profit reported with Q4 still reportingban underlying operational profit.
The Results Meeting today was excellent with key takeaways that profits will grow five fold over the next 4 years and there is plenty of scope in the balance sheet to leverage lending and rescop the asset mix to generate more income. The £50m annualised savings on track worth a further £30m identified all being delivered by Q2 this year, as in 3 months time. I expect the next trading up date will reflect the savings and the turnaround and growth strategy gaining traction.
I shall hazard a guess that our negative contributors will gradually fade away in the coming months as it becomes more apparent that Metro Bank is on an even keel.
As for taking Meyro Bank private its much harder, expensive, and time consuming to value, and find a buyer and sell a private firm than an already listed business.
I wouldn't be surprised as the share price recovers and grows Gilinksi reduces his risk exposure but ultimately a sale may not occur within the next year or so in which time the share price will no doubt recover much of its recent loses..
Or we maybe surprised that new bids come in well north of 100p valuing Metro Bank in excess of £1 billion.
From the results tucked away:
"and the gain recognised in relation to the haircut on the Tier 2 debt instrument in the debt refinancing, marginally offset by costs associated with restructuring."
Unusual to report a statutory profit ahead of underlying earnings ... didn't occur to me that would be an uplift.
Thanks.
It is not a one off cost. it is a one off uplift to income i.e. there is £74m of income (net of transaction costs) in the 2023 numbers that will not be in the 2024 numbers. That is why you have a statutory profit and an underlying loss (since teh income uplift is just accounting) The 2024 numbers start with a run rate £10m a month loss. If the costs come out that might get to £5m. But that is your start point. You then have to believe a story that says deposits will keep flowing in, despite slashing the front line staff, the bank will pivot to higher yielding assets (despite the last pivot being teh purchase of Ratesetter that is being shut down) and the bank wont need to invest a load of money to upgrade its systems like everyone else. This is all basic stuff. if you cant understand what the bank is reporting hard to understand why you can hold any credible opinion
More job cots announced on yahoo this morning :-)
So a £100m one off cost not taken into account in H1 reports. So prey tell us all how a one off cost in 2023 feeds into 2024.