Register
Login:
Share:
Email Facebook Twitter


London South East Natural Resources Briefing webcast: #Emmerson #Alba #Condor Gold #Gold analysis
Angus Energy in talks to buy 'transformational' gas asset in North England


Motif Bio Share Chat (MTFB)



Share Price: 7.96Bid: 7.62Ask: 7.78Change: 0.75 (+10.40%)Riser - Motif Bio
Spread: 0.16Spread as %: 2.10%Open: 7.40High: 8.10Low: 7.40Yesterday’s Close: 7.21


Share Discussion for Motif Bio


Thread View

Please login or register to post a message on Share Chat.

Posts per page:

ScottPalmer250
Posts: 206
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: Nasdaq
Today 18:08
Now 3.5% letting II’s out one wonders early in the day?
 
ScottPalmer250
Posts: 206
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: Have an Excellent Weekend!!!
Today 18:07
Certainly feel we will get one if not more TR-1’s before next friday looking at all the 6 digit sells in terms of volume today. Happy Extended weekend everyone!
InvestingWizard
Posts: 49
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
Have an Excellent Weekend!!!
Today 17:24
Based on all the research I have done and the news developments from this week, we should look forward to some exciting NR to be issued by MTFB within the next 5-10 business days. Having said that, the FDA is unpredictable.

Wishing all of you a great extended weekend!
DrMaccers
Posts: 2,984
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: If the webcast is so meaningless
Today 17:18
All hands to the shorting pumps quick! I presume you are the same dude who was Catscan etc? Just with this new username.
So what's your current angle here? Continue to post endless posts about a non issue you claim is an issue but no one cares about in the attempt to get people to sell or just not buy? All at a time when the Minutes are a week away? No doubt when you are priced wrong then this avatar gets dumped and some new one appears to badger on about another non issue. Must be an easier way to make a living? Have you considered just going long lol! Seems like the most straight forward way to make money
Amers
Posts: 17
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
Hoping and Praying
Today 17:15
I hope Thomas Cook and Motif fly on Tuesday!!!
ScottPalmer250
Posts: 206
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
If the webcast is so meaningless
Today 17:03
Ask them to repost it. Email : ir@motifbio.com I bet you won’t be able to persuade them too and then you have your answer. Something on there they don’t want people to remember or playback to them if that is the case otherwise just put it back up. Remember people no new trials just additional data (not the same thing) isn’t? Maybe? Who knows did I really say that? When?
Ivyspivey
Posts: 9,735
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: Looks good
Today 17:00
Absolutely correct about how to value a pharma.Two normal ways are DCF cash flow or peer valuation.
This close to market DCF is the obvious way to go.
But let us get minutes and sort out which pathway and cost then how to fund pathway and then go from there.
Have to take into account partnership arrangement with US partner and potential for synergy then ROW deals then HABP etc.
ScottPalmer250
Posts: 206
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: FDA clearance?
Today 16:56
It’s so obvious what is going to happen it’s almost embarrassing to see people off the back of the interview feel that Motif have turned a corner. They said there was no indications new trials were needed and now there is more than a gentle whiff in the breeze of new trials. The Webcast mysteriously vanished as though that makes everyone have amnesia, maybe Iclaprim can help with that because I am also of the opinion that for ABSSSi this is dead in the water. I will make a £1000 donation to charity if I am wrong on the 3rd June. But it’s option 3 at the very best
TheeEarlGrey
Posts: 219
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
Trials
Today 16:50
Trials
Edit
Drug development and pre-clinical trials focus on non-human subjects and work on animals such as rats. This is the most inexpensive phase of testing.[citation needed]

The Food and Drug Administration mandates a 3 phase clinical trial testing that tests for side effects and the effectiveness of the drug with a single phase clinical trial costing upwards of $100 million.[9]

After a drug has passed through all three phases, the pharmaceutical company can move forward with a New Drug Application from the FDA. In 2014, the FDA charged between $1 million to $2 million for an NDA.[10]

Failed drugs
Edit
The processes of "discovery" and clinical trials amounts to approximately 12 years from research lab to the patient, in which about 10% of all drugs that start pre-clinical trials ever make it to actual human testing.Citation needed Each pharmaceutical company (who have hundreds of drugs moving in and out of these phases) will never recuperate the costs of "failed drugs". Thus, profits made from one drug need to cover the costs of previous "failed drugs".

Relationship
Edit
Overall, research and development expenses relating to a pharmaceutical drug amount to the billions. For example, it was reported that AstraZeneca spent upwards on average of $11 billion per drug for research and developmental purposes.[9] The average of $11 billion only comprises the "discovery" costs, pre-clinical and clinical trial costs, and other expenses.[citation needed] With the addition of "failed drug" costs, the $11 billion easily amounts to over $20 billion in expenses.[citation needed] Therefore, an appropriate figure like $60 billion would be approximate sales figure that a pharmaceutical company like AstraZeneca would aim to generate to cover these costs and make a profit at the same time.[citation needed]

Total research and development costs provide pharmaceutical companies a ballpark estimation of total expenses. This is important in setting projected profit goals for a particular drug and thus, is one of the most necessary steps pharmaceutical companies take in pricing a particular drug.[citation needed]

Research on costs
Edit

Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development has published numerous studies estimating the cost of developing new pharmaceutical drugs. In 2001, researchers from the Center estimated that the cost of doing so was $802 million,[11] and in 2014, they released a study estimating that this amount had risen to nearly $2.6 billion.[12] The 2014 study was criticized by Medecins Sans Frontieres, which said it was unreliable because the industry's research and development spending is not made public.[13] Aaron Carroll of the New York Times also criticized the study, saying it "contains a lot of assumptions that tend to favor the pharmaceutical industry."[14] The Center's 2016 estimate, published in the Journal of Health Economics, found the cost to have averaged $2.87 billion (in 2013 dollars).[15]
InvestingWizard
Posts: 49
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:7.96
RE: Looks good
Today 16:48
Let's not conflate cost of developing a drug with valuing a company. Pharma company are valued based on the revenue potential of approved/unapproved drugs. According to Zack's Research, Iclaprim (if approved) can achieved peak annual sales of $500Million in the USA alone. Keep in mind that this is a conservative estimate as it only accounts for US sales and Iclaprim being prescribed to patients with renal issues. So if we apply an ultra conservative price to sales multiple of 5, then MTFB may attain a market valuation of $2.5 Billion within 2-3 years of starting sales of Iclaprim. I looked up other pharma companies with one/two products in their portfolios and they have price to sales ratios ranging from 10 to 30.
ScottPalmer250
Posts: 206
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: FDA clearance?
Today 16:46
Well that’s put a real damper on the mood. You got people tossing around $1 billion and re-rates and you throw in that? No party invites for you
mysteryguy
Posts: 120
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: FDA clearance?
Today 16:39
Due to the rejection on 14th of Feb, should we get approval this time around I would estimate anywhere in the 60-80p region as opposed to the projected £1 prior to the FDA rejection.

However and I have to say this but in my view it seems extremely unlikely FDA will approve for the ABSSSI route. Hence why they have looked at other avenues to launch Iclaprim. Raising funds to keep afloat is now the next big issue they face.

What's your break even out of interest?
Ian.B
Posts: 15,560
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: Looks good
Today 16:33
Ian.B
Posts: 15,560
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: Looks good
Today 16:32
The cost of drug development is the full cost of bringing a new drug (i.e., new chemical entity) to market from drug discovery through clinical trials to approval. Typically, companies spend tens to hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars on drug development.[1] One element of the complexity is that the much-publicized final numbers often not only include the out-of-pocket expenses for conducting a series of Phase I-III clinical trials, but also the capital costs of the long period (10 or more years) during which the company must cover out-of-pocket costs for preclinical drug discovery. Additionally, companies often do not report whether a given figure includes the capitalized cost or comprises only out-of-pocket expenses, or both.

One study assessed both capitalized and out-of-pocket costs as about US$1.8 billion and $870 million, respectively.[2]
............

And here we are at a sub £30mil mcap
Lawson
Posts: 213
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: Why didn’t the interviewer ask GL
Today 16:01
Good one! We have a rather different use of this word in Oz. No slur on the bird.
jackdaw99
Posts: 805
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: Why didn’t the interviewer ask GL
Today 15:55
Drongo! That's a slur on a perfectly respectable bird.
The.Italian
Posts: 1,216
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: Looks good
Today 15:48
i am referring to doc phil post of 15.36.not so sure about his 15.41 post .not that simple imo
Gaddes
Posts: 212
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: FDA clearance?
Today 15:47
Should read SP
Gaddes
Posts: 212
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
FDA clearance?
Today 15:46
If we got it what would our potential so be ? I would be interested to hear your views guys .
The.Italian
Posts: 1,216
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: Looks good
Today 15:45
Doc Phil is perfectly correct.there was a lot of discussion and researched information posted on the potential development costs and in several cases the figures were much higher,$1 billion would i think have been pretty much the lowest base figure.im not saying that ultimate market value has to reflect these costs as i think the question is more nuanced than that but regardless of what has happened in the last 3 months getting to this stage has been a considerable achievement and one which can normally only be achieved by very considerable expense.i hope this will ultimately be reflected in some way in the valuation if we get approval
DocPhil9
Posts: 37
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: Looks good
Today 15:41
exactly approval automatically means they have an asset worth £1 billion and thats before taking into account any future revenue from sales!
Lawson
Posts: 213
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: Looks good
Today 15:40
I have read the link and I humbly stand corrected.
Farquar
Posts: 2,809
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: Looks good
Today 15:40
Nice little Bed and Isa just gone through by the looks of it and why not if this re-rates big time then you don’t wait it to eat into your CGT
Ivyspivey
Posts: 9,735
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: Looks good
Today 15:38
Lawson.
I know it seems very hard to believe given current situation but Doc P is right about cost of getting a drug Apprived
DocPhil9
Posts: 37
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:7.96
RE: Looks good
Today 15:36
not exaggerated Lawson

'However, various sources indicate that it can cost more than $1 billion to bring one product to the market'

https://www.brightfocus.org/clinical-trials/how-clinical-trials-work/fda-approval-process




Share Price, Share Chat, Stock Market news at lse.co.uk
FREE Member Services
- Setup a personalised Watchlist and Virtual Portfolio.
- Gain access to LIVE real-time Regulatory News (RNS).
- View more Trades, Directors' Deals, and Broker Ratings.
Share Price, Share Chat, Stock Market news at lse.co.uk









Datafeed and UK data supplied by NBTrader and Digital Look. While London South East do their best to maintain the high quality of the information displayed on this site,
we cannot be held responsible for any loss due to incorrect information found here. All information is provided free of charge, 'as-is', and you use it at your own risk.
The contents of all 'Chat' messages should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Limited, or its affiliates.
London South East does not authorise or approve this content, and reserves the right to remove items at its discretion.