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Motif Bio Share Chat (MTFB)



Share Price: 33.00Bid: 32.00Ask: 32.95Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Motif Bio
Spread: 0.95Spread as %: 2.97%Open: 33.00High: 0.00Low: 0.00Yesterday’s Close: 33.00


Share Discussion for Motif Bio


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calisto
Posts: 3,429
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
RE: research note
Today 06:14
Oh that’s good ! Can’t wait
 
The.Italian
Posts: 38
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:33.40
research note
Mon 11:16
yes i agree entirely with ivyspivey things are getting very interesting!
Ivyspivey
Posts: 8,284
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.40
RE: Research Note out..116p target
Mon 11:08
Morning Valuerebel
Thanks for posting.
Most important but I take is the mention of favouring a partnering deal with an already revenue generating Company for US commercialisation.
I have favoured this approach over another AB company due to product positioning and launch timing etc but to have this mentioned at this stage by the broker is telling IMO.
Valuerebel
Posts: 429
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.40
Research Note out..116p target
Mon 10:03
Northland Capital.Following Motif’s successful placing of 17th May, from which the Group raised £10m gross through the issuance of new shares at 31p each, Northland has updated its financial model for the Group. As a result, its share price target has been raised to 116p (115p previously).
The updated financial model, based on discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology, reduces the applied discount rate from 25% to 24% as a result of Motif’s completion of its rolling submission of a New Drug Application (NDA) to the FDA for the treatment of acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI) (announced 14th June). The assumed terminal growth rate remains unchanged at a conservative 3%.
Priority Review is expected upon acceptance of this submission by the FDA. In anticipation of a Q119E approval, management is preparing for iclaprim’s market launch shortly thereafter. This now favours a prospective US commercialization option of partnering with a revenue generating/late development-stage company in the hospital space, as opposed to building its own sales network. The Fulford Group continues to identify potential commercialisation partners for iclaprim outside the US, with focus on the EU and Japan as some of the most valuable target markets.
Given that vancomycin demonstrates nephrotoxicity, iclaprim is ideally positioned to become a preferred alternative treatment for ABSSSI with impaired renal function, an addressable market of c.US$2.8bn globally. Similar-stage, US-quoted comparators presently achieve market capitalisations in excess of US$500m. In this respect, Motif Bio is considered to be significantly undervalued and Northland reconfirms its rating of BUY.
mrmineral
Posts: 213
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.40
RE: Novartis
Sun 13:42
You have to consider the possibility that in light of Motifs progress with Iclaprim and its unique properties that some Pharma / Bio-techs may feel the competition is to great at present and are waiting to see how things pan out over the coming months / years before pumping funds into the development of new drugs in this sector ? which gives Motif a clear run for while at least to generate revenue, food for thought !
The.Italian
Posts: 38
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:33.40
novartis
Fri 16:38
thank you floviola for the link extremely interesting and in my opinion quite encouraging from the perspective of possible governmental /regulatory incentives
Floviola
Posts: 93
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.50
Novartis
Fri 16:05
Graham Lumsden quoted in this piece on Novartis bailing out of the AB market. Interesting read.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-13/superbugs-win-another-round-as-big-pharma-leaves-antibiotics

The departure of some big drugmakers such as Novartis “hopefully is going to add pressure to find ways to correct some market failings,” said Graham Lumsden, CEO of Motif Bio Plc, whose experimental antibiotic Iclaprim is under regulatory review in the U.S. “This is where the biotechs have to pick up the slack.”
rbrand
Posts: 1,847
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.50
Boring
Fri 08:20
Sure it is but wouldn't instant gratification always get boring too.
I know nothing but the large institutional holdings give me calm. Also wish people wouldn't bring up manipulation so much unless proper evidence. That is the last refuge of a scoundrel. OSCAR WILDE
leas
Posts: 4,462
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
RE: My twopence worth
Wed 09:53
Spot on Ian. I have been invested in another bio for a while when the sp hit a low of 15. No posts, apparent lack of interest with many writing it off. However, they failed to recognise what the company was actually doing and going about it's business rather than issuing statements that could probably be spun to damage the MC further.
After positive news the traders arrived that have undermined the actual value by constant ramping before taking their 10%. Of course that will change and I'm sure once approval is given the same will happen.

Institutions always win out in the end, that is why they are happy to take a position early. After all, they don't play with their own hard earned cash.
Ian.B
Posts: 14,889
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
RE: My twopence worth
Wed 09:39
MTFB unlike most aim shares is not reliant on retail investors. There are huge institutional holdings built at this price and much higher.... why have they taken such large positions before the small pi,s show up?

Buy and wait. Impatience about concern about lack of pi posting silly ramps will cost folk when the market wakes up to mtfb imo. Fda acceptance in August, lets see what happens.
uddinkas
Posts: 553
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
RE: My twopence worth
Wed 09:33
Chill dude,

With that kind of investment, I would have thought that you are playing a long game, which is also a sign of an experienced investor.

Imagine the swings Warren Buffet is used to seeing on his investment. Don't forget that at one point Berkshire Hathaway shares were down 40% from its recent highs and what do you think they did, they bought more shares and this not a tin pot company, it has market capitalisation of half trillion dollars.
Fishsheds
Posts: 46
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
My twopence worth
Wed 09:05
Or should I say my 110k worth. There is no sentiment in this share. Sells always exceeding buys. Posts are lacking. I’m p*ssed off. Don’t know what to believe anymore. Patience has been stretched to the limit. Any slight rise is followed by a bigger drop. AAARRRRGGGHH!
smalltrader
Posts: 227
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
RE: Sector wobbles
10 Jul '18
once we get the NDA acceptance from FDA, this will lift off so until then be patient and not look at the price. I have set a notification for RNS from MTFB so will check the price when there is news until then not looking at MTFB..frustrates me seeing the SP so better not check the price and BB for sometime! GLA
itsgambling
Posts: 3,229
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:32.725
RE: Sector wobbles
10 Jul '18
Akao has an mcap of over $350m. Which was over $500m two weeks ago until their AB was cleared to treat adults with complicated urinary tract infections, but declined approval for treating bloodstream infections. Declined because of not being proven effective.
Understandably that kind of uncertainty about the effectiveness of the drug has smashed their mcap (to 'just' three times ours).
IG
cliffst85
Posts: 410
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:32.725
RE: Sector wobbles
9 Jul '18
look at AKAO it's currently in free fall down another 8.5% today to stand at $7.8 - 12 months ago their price was over $23 and that's with recent FDA approval for their AB to treat patients with urinary tract infections this shows how important it is for GL to get the best deal possible for Iclaprim so the share price can get to a more realistic level
missthepenny62
Posts: 188
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:32.05
RE: Sector wobbles
9 Jul '18
You'd think after the recent crashes in IMM SUMM N4P etc due to failed trials, that PIs would be loading up on Motif!

It's the only AIM co I know of that is currently sitting on successful Phase 3 data and the SP has barely budged a penny. There's definitely sthg fishy with the manipulation here but am going to ride it out all the way to the 90+% CoS of approval.

Dips like today may well be designed to trick weak hands. I honestly can't see any other reason for it but then WDIK?

GLA.
Fishsheds
Posts: 46
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:32.05
Seriously!
9 Jul '18
Frustrating now.
TheQuietus
Posts: 171
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.50
Sector wobbles
9 Jul '18
Add N4P to the list of recent detractors holding things back...
AllGuesswork
Posts: 287
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:34.95
RE: Selling?
5 Jul '18
I spoke to a previously large holder here and his reasons were related to the BOD, specifically he share options that were given to the CEO (who he felt had not delivered shareholder value, and therefore was rewarding himself in preference to the owners of the company).

I've not sold, but came close. I don't feel like I have a good enough understanding of the price fluctuations, which undermined my belief this would come good. Fundamentally, this looks like a great company which is valued many times less than the investment required to get an antibiotic through to approval. However, watching the share holders change from predominantly PIs to more recently IIs gives me cause for optimism, and makes me wonder if the manipulation opt spoken off has some merit, and isn't just PI paranoia.
TheQuietus
Posts: 171
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:34.25
RE: Selling?
5 Jul '18
Boredom, perceived better opportunity elsewhere, reading of chart / fundamentals, sudden requirement for cash...

Tbh I myself am bored, can see opps elsewhere, am wary of the continued recent downward trend (but mindful of the wedge breakout) but don't need the cash at present. And think think this is a multibag winner in due course. So money is parked here!
TrekMadone
Posts: 502
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:35.00
Selling?
5 Jul '18
Be interested in any views as to why some peeps sold of late other than personal reasons. Trek
Ian.B
Posts: 14,889
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:35.00
RE: Reuters
5 Jul '18
I personally suspect its the ii,s buying that have also manipulated this to stay cheap. No idea how other than skillful use of alogs.

Anyway, seems another stealth rise in progress lets see where it goes. Expecting it to build for FDA acceptance next month. If ever there was a time to buy surely its now (and not 2 years ago when i did : (
Jimzi
Posts: 9,920
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:34.40
RE: Antibiotic Incentives
5 Jul '18
Looking a bit chirpier today.
Resignation taken well!!
Ivyspivey
Posts: 8,284
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.50
Reuters
4 Jul '18
INSTITUTIONAL HOLDERS
% Shares Owned: 56.11%
# of Holders: 31
Total Shares Held: 166,470,012
3 Mo. Net Change: 26,675,798
# New Positions: 3
# Closed Positions: 0
# Increased Positions: 3
# Reduced Positions: 2
# Net Buyers: 1
smalltrader
Posts: 227
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:33.50
RE: Antibiotic Incentives
4 Jul '18
Good find and Good news for MTFB! So if our NDA is all good then with fast track approval, we could look at commercialisation by Q2 2019? We now need to see who is the big pharma they are going to partner with. May be we just need to be patient for another 1 month and by August, when FDA accepts NDA, we will see flurry of news and that should tick SP up to 45p atleast? But still 45p is way too low. 50-60p after FDA accepting the application would be good! and any take over offer would then be atleast 90p!

still cannot not believe that ENG won the penalties but it is true so let us hope we get the same surprise with rise in SP here! :-) GLA




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