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Motif Bio Share Chat (MTFB)



Share Price: 32.30Bid: 31.90Ask: 32.85Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Motif Bio
Spread: 0.95Spread as %: 2.98%Open: 31.75High: 32.90Low: 31.75Yesterday’s Close: 32.30


Share Discussion for Motif Bio


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Ivyspivey
Posts: 8,291
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.75
Morning
Fri 09:39
Will only get despondent if science changes especially as we are getting close to NDA submission decision and final FDA Approval proces
Low volume here and on market in general is causing drift within trading range but 31p placing price does seem to be nice support
 
Fishsheds
Posts: 61
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.75
RE: Same old same old
Fri 09:14
Agree mansky. I too am getting very despondent. Unfortunately, i can't give you any optimism as I feel I'm being robbed of it. Again the sp drops and share sales exceed buys. I see IG's explanation of volume/sales/buys etc but it don't fill me with any confidence. I'm staying in as I've been here since the IPO and i should/could have taken some nice profit along the way. I also think that sentiment has almost gone on this board.
Sorry for the morose view everyone but only an upward SP movement will change that.
Regards to all.
manksy
Posts: 166
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:32.20
Same old same old
Wed 22:23
........well this is one holding that has really tested the patience......... every corner has the potential for a silver lining for it to be another mirage. About a year ago it shot to 50p on Revive II news and a year later it is barely looking like a viable project at the refelctive market price. Keep giving me optimism lads as I bl**dy well need it. GLA
Fishsheds
Posts: 61
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:32.85
RE: Considering
Wed 16:19
Well gents, my fingers, toes and everything else are crossed as we wait for the news. Let’s hope the wait is worth it. A huge chunk of my pension is in this (not as many as IG though) so it has to happen. GLA
upchuck
Posts: 43
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:32.00
RE: Considering
Wed 15:28
An interesting trading pattern emerges in MTFB just before they announce news. Just before revive I and II were announced the stock goes into the gutter. Shortly after the good news the stock would jump up only to fall back down in short order. A favorable partnership deal likely would lead to the sustained rerate we've been waiting for.
upchuck
Posts: 43
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:32.00
RE: Considering
Wed 15:14
A lot of news anticipated next month. The biggest of which is how they will commercialize Iclaprim. This is the catalyst the market is waiting for. Hopefully a partnership on good terms and announced next month.
itsgambling
Posts: 3,231
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:32.00
RE: Considering
Wed 14:18
"sells far exceed buys" - 4 things to consider...
1) The buy/sell indicator is basic (derived from mid-price) and often wrong.
2) Every trade is both a buy and a sell. With DMA's trading this, you can be very clear that, with the sp holding steady, a series of sells means BOTH that someone is selling and that someone in accumulating.
3) The daily volume, when compared to the mcap, suggests that there is nothing to be read into these tiny trades.
4) You can be very sure that you won't be on your own. There will maybe be new holders, but you'd need to buy all the shares yourself to be actually on your own. And you can't have mine :-)
IG
Fishsheds
Posts: 61
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:32.00
RE: Considering
Wed 14:04
sells far exceed buys almost every day.
Fishsheds
Posts: 61
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:32.00
Considering
Wed 13:59
The potential of MTFB and Iclaprim, sells far exceed buys. Looks like I’m going to be left on my own.
itsgambling
Posts: 3,231
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:32.00
Bit of messing around
Wed 12:19
...And I have ended up with slightly more shares :-) New holding record for Motif of 353250 shares.
Five weeks since NDA submission... Think August should be very interesting with NDA acceptance, CF in vitro results, another chunk of AMP shares being snaffled up, possible reveal of some of sub threshold large holders and the big reveal of our commercial partnership / deal.
Best of luck
IG
calisto
Posts: 3,433
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
RE: research note
Tue 06:14
Oh that’s good ! Can’t wait
The.Italian
Posts: 38
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:33.40
research note
Mon 11:16
yes i agree entirely with ivyspivey things are getting very interesting!
Ivyspivey
Posts: 8,291
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.40
RE: Research Note out..116p target
Mon 11:08
Morning Valuerebel
Thanks for posting.
Most important but I take is the mention of favouring a partnering deal with an already revenue generating Company for US commercialisation.
I have favoured this approach over another AB company due to product positioning and launch timing etc but to have this mentioned at this stage by the broker is telling IMO.
Valuerebel
Posts: 430
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.40
Research Note out..116p target
Mon 10:03
Northland Capital.Following Motif’s successful placing of 17th May, from which the Group raised £10m gross through the issuance of new shares at 31p each, Northland has updated its financial model for the Group. As a result, its share price target has been raised to 116p (115p previously).
The updated financial model, based on discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology, reduces the applied discount rate from 25% to 24% as a result of Motif’s completion of its rolling submission of a New Drug Application (NDA) to the FDA for the treatment of acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI) (announced 14th June). The assumed terminal growth rate remains unchanged at a conservative 3%.
Priority Review is expected upon acceptance of this submission by the FDA. In anticipation of a Q119E approval, management is preparing for iclaprim’s market launch shortly thereafter. This now favours a prospective US commercialization option of partnering with a revenue generating/late development-stage company in the hospital space, as opposed to building its own sales network. The Fulford Group continues to identify potential commercialisation partners for iclaprim outside the US, with focus on the EU and Japan as some of the most valuable target markets.
Given that vancomycin demonstrates nephrotoxicity, iclaprim is ideally positioned to become a preferred alternative treatment for ABSSSI with impaired renal function, an addressable market of c.US$2.8bn globally. Similar-stage, US-quoted comparators presently achieve market capitalisations in excess of US$500m. In this respect, Motif Bio is considered to be significantly undervalued and Northland reconfirms its rating of BUY.
mrmineral
Posts: 213
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.40
RE: Novartis
Sun 13:42
You have to consider the possibility that in light of Motifs progress with Iclaprim and its unique properties that some Pharma / Bio-techs may feel the competition is to great at present and are waiting to see how things pan out over the coming months / years before pumping funds into the development of new drugs in this sector ? which gives Motif a clear run for while at least to generate revenue, food for thought !
The.Italian
Posts: 38
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:33.40
novartis
13 Jul '18
thank you floviola for the link extremely interesting and in my opinion quite encouraging from the perspective of possible governmental /regulatory incentives
Floviola
Posts: 93
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.50
Novartis
13 Jul '18
Graham Lumsden quoted in this piece on Novartis bailing out of the AB market. Interesting read.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-13/superbugs-win-another-round-as-big-pharma-leaves-antibiotics

The departure of some big drugmakers such as Novartis “hopefully is going to add pressure to find ways to correct some market failings,” said Graham Lumsden, CEO of Motif Bio Plc, whose experimental antibiotic Iclaprim is under regulatory review in the U.S. “This is where the biotechs have to pick up the slack.”
rbrand
Posts: 1,847
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.50
Boring
13 Jul '18
Sure it is but wouldn't instant gratification always get boring too.
I know nothing but the large institutional holdings give me calm. Also wish people wouldn't bring up manipulation so much unless proper evidence. That is the last refuge of a scoundrel. OSCAR WILDE
leas
Posts: 4,476
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
RE: My twopence worth
11 Jul '18
Spot on Ian. I have been invested in another bio for a while when the sp hit a low of 15. No posts, apparent lack of interest with many writing it off. However, they failed to recognise what the company was actually doing and going about it's business rather than issuing statements that could probably be spun to damage the MC further.
After positive news the traders arrived that have undermined the actual value by constant ramping before taking their 10%. Of course that will change and I'm sure once approval is given the same will happen.

Institutions always win out in the end, that is why they are happy to take a position early. After all, they don't play with their own hard earned cash.
Ian.B
Posts: 14,890
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
RE: My twopence worth
11 Jul '18
MTFB unlike most aim shares is not reliant on retail investors. There are huge institutional holdings built at this price and much higher.... why have they taken such large positions before the small pi,s show up?

Buy and wait. Impatience about concern about lack of pi posting silly ramps will cost folk when the market wakes up to mtfb imo. Fda acceptance in August, lets see what happens.
uddinkas
Posts: 553
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
RE: My twopence worth
11 Jul '18
Chill dude,

With that kind of investment, I would have thought that you are playing a long game, which is also a sign of an experienced investor.

Imagine the swings Warren Buffet is used to seeing on his investment. Don't forget that at one point Berkshire Hathaway shares were down 40% from its recent highs and what do you think they did, they bought more shares and this not a tin pot company, it has market capitalisation of half trillion dollars.
Fishsheds
Posts: 61
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
My twopence worth
11 Jul '18
Or should I say my 110k worth. There is no sentiment in this share. Sells always exceeding buys. Posts are lacking. I’m p*ssed off. Don’t know what to believe anymore. Patience has been stretched to the limit. Any slight rise is followed by a bigger drop. AAARRRRGGGHH!
smalltrader
Posts: 232
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
RE: Sector wobbles
10 Jul '18
once we get the NDA acceptance from FDA, this will lift off so until then be patient and not look at the price. I have set a notification for RNS from MTFB so will check the price when there is news until then not looking at MTFB..frustrates me seeing the SP so better not check the price and BB for sometime! GLA
itsgambling
Posts: 3,231
Premium Chat Member
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:32.725
RE: Sector wobbles
10 Jul '18
Akao has an mcap of over $350m. Which was over $500m two weeks ago until their AB was cleared to treat adults with complicated urinary tract infections, but declined approval for treating bloodstream infections. Declined because of not being proven effective.
Understandably that kind of uncertainty about the effectiveness of the drug has smashed their mcap (to 'just' three times ours).
IG
cliffst85
Posts: 411
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:32.725
RE: Sector wobbles
9 Jul '18
look at AKAO it's currently in free fall down another 8.5% today to stand at $7.8 - 12 months ago their price was over $23 and that's with recent FDA approval for their AB to treat patients with urinary tract infections this shows how important it is for GL to get the best deal possible for Iclaprim so the share price can get to a more realistic level




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