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Well then, March hasn’t turned out to be quite as mad as the saying suggests.
The BRC and NIQ reports on 5 March appear to have been the catalysts needed to halt the reversal. That date marked the turn up from the low point of the downtrend and it’s been a nice rise since, backed up with further positive signs from aditional retail data. The results vacuum, that was getting just a little bit testy, also seems to have turned for the better and today’s update from Ocado hopefully easing some of the domestic turbulence.
The 200DMA has been treated as sacrosanct with the low point turning just above it. ‘Twas never breached and the SP is already clear of both the 20 and 50DMAs as well. There was a hint of a W bottom from mid February to early March and we are now well clear of the W midpoint so that’s a good signal. The Weinstein disciples amongst the throng may now be thinking that it’s looking like a return to a Stage 2 uptrend; for the non Weinstein disciples and those wondering wot I’m blabbering on aboot – Stage 2 is a good thing. Yay :o)
My earlier observations in this occasional series on market dynamics highlighted the potential for a Head and Shoulders pattern to complete around this time at around the 200 level, and then go sideways for a while. Well, we got the sideways a bit higher and a bit earlier than I anticipated – a gorgeous looking corkscrew that ended with today’s break out – and, crucially, today’s close was just above the shoulder point. That should be key to the H&S now being consigned to the digital archives, never to be mentioned again (be nice now).
The close today was bang on a key support/resistance line though (if you are really bored with the in-laws this holiday weekend you can have ‘fun’ tracing it all the way back to 2003) and curiously it’s at the exact same point where an extension of the base of that lovely 15 month uptrend might cross it. Key trend lines crossing over in a ‘confluence’ may possibly mean a bit of SP hesitation and stuttering around, unless it smashes through tomorrow without a hindward glance.
Unfortunately - *sigh* - all of that means that there are now two large unfilled gaps on my chart that are going to completely mess with my CDO for the rest of year. Perhaps lots of chocolate and a nice profit on my investments will get me through the pain, hmmm?
Right then Easter, what’s in-‘store’ (stop me) for us at the end of this wondrous financial year? I’m going to take a punt here and suggest that we may even see a post YE trading update in April. It doesn’t normally happen, and if it does I suspect it may be relatively brief, but it would be a nice bookmark to recent events and set up nicely for the results on 22 May?
Happy Easter and a Happy 2024 Financial Year End to one and all (Dickens can rest easy I think).
I was thinking the same... Quiet guven the rise and some positive read across from Ocado update.
Not a chartist but looks like a nice bowl. Let's see where this ends up.. Hopefully £3+!
Quiet here today considering a nice rise.. I noticed some news regarding Ocado. I'd like to think M&S can make gains all by itself.
Reduced to 0.42pct on the 19th March Bax
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board have reduced, or possibly even closed their short position. Short Tracker now showing no positions over 0.5%. https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0031274896/
Everything is looking good for a spring flush, just need to stay above 250 today. Clocks going forward next weekend should help with evening shopping.
UK Retail sales beat analysts estimates this morning with clothing perfoming well, - good news for MKS - hopefully another blue day - lets see
gla dyor etc
Nice move today, the February UK Retail Sales data from the ONS may add to the momentum tomorrow, should appear at top of this link at 7am:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/education/2024/03/20/why-m-s-shares-still-have-further-to-climb/#:~:text=The%20shares%20have%20recovered%20strongly,comparatives%20and%20rising%20wage%20costs.
Next results good and guidance kept and big gains for the Dow last night - should auger well on the read through for MKS today, lets see
gla dyor etc
Thanks Sunbeam. I'm a newbie to MKS - only buying from November onwards - and I'm very optimistic for their future growth.
W13Ken - Just a note, its always a Easter Saturday, before Easter day which is always a Sunday (The date may change but its always Sunday Easter day ) ;) ;) - I always by my Easter from M&S
Cheers kowi. Easter falls early which should mean that a lot of Easter sales will squeeze in before the end of the Financial year (I believe it will be Easter Saturday this year).
Dear all.
Just a little ressurance for us. It's main paragraph from my site general manger, published today 12 of March.
''Hello everyone,
Just as we step out of Valentines week, we now enter Mother's day, followed quickly by Easter. We have had a strong start to this year, using Christmas as our baseline for safety, great service and cost control. So far volumes for Mother's day have far exceeded our expectations, which is another clear indication that the business we now work for continues to beat the market, whilst it progresses with the rebuild plan to continue to give value to the customers and shareholders.''
All looks good as I said couple days ago.
DYOR
The fight for market share always dominates the grocery sector and is the biggest control on margins.
Its important to see where the main action is, and at the moment its certainly with basic products - even more so than usual.
The fight between the discounters and the big four now seems to be turning a corner with the big four likely to come out on top as the one trick pony discounters likely go into reverse market share.
Meanwhile with Waitrose in a tail spin and the big four hunting for all the margin they can get on non basic products these are good times for M&S with their bias towards the top end on the market.
Do they know? They know.
Since Christmas we haven't slow down. Volumes are honestly higher compar to LY. And now we had just finished another busy period from Valentine's Day through International Women's Day & Mother's Day . But its not the end cos we're aproaching into Easter week. Through all this time we have been exaptionally busy where sales volume have been masive. Just after Easter we might be a bit sluggish but this is another chalange for M&S. So far we are doing well and Im sure we can also beat our summer trading figures too.
RBC raises Marks & Spencer to 'outperform' ('sector perform') - price target 300 (285) pence
Looks like we are turning a corner after the sell off at the start of the year. I'm not a chartist... But I think we will get back to 260p pretty quickly and then it may get interesting
MKS is up nearly 20p in few days and more to come
RBC raises Marks & Spencer to 'outperform' ('sector perform') - price target 300 (285) pence
The trading update from Ocado Retail on the 26th March should make good reading.
MKS has been marked down from January onwards, on the back of the assumption that they would not be able to maintain their grocery sales after the Chrismas period had finished as that is what traditionally has happened, but this is not the case as these figures show - I added last month and will continue to add on weakness - MKS has significant momentum here, not just in food but also in clothing - momentum is a powerful thing - Just ask Waitrose, which has been decimated by Marks recently - a rerate will come down the pipe here imho - patience needed until the next set of results
gla dyor etc
Good news for both companies chilting.
My wonder is how much of the M+S increase is self generated through people shopping directly in M&S stores and M&S Simply Food outlets or how much of it is being generated through the sales of M&S products via the Ocado website and delivery service. It has to eb a bit of a coincidence that both numbers are trending high at the same time, don't you think.
Anyway I trust both CEO's will be happy with those numbers.
Marks & Spencer Group Plc: Redburn Atlantic upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from GBX 260 to GBX 305.
https://uk.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Analyst-recommendations-Dell-Domino-s-Netapp-Okta-M-S--46092944/