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I do think the Stonegate news has definitely rocked the hospitality sector and as it is the largest pub co in the UK, it definitely has affected Marston's SP further. However the Stonegate estate is very different to Marston's in that Marston's have very little city centre presence and therefore not affected by issues such as lower footfall and limited transport options (Congestion charges/Train strikes). Marston's pub portfolio is mainly suburban and in residential areas and therefore lends itself to stable and resilient revenues. Not to mention Stonegate and Revolution bars also have nightclubs which are slowly dying a death....
Yes, can accept your points to a certain extend GM, but yet as always this SP continues its slide 1pc or more regularly, while most in the pub sector gain or hold stable/drop modestly .. Is the market gambling on this to fail like others recently. ? How much has Stonegate problems affected it it ? Something is very wrong here, refinancing issues ?
@wolfwatch isn't this driven by the macroeconomic environment rather than anything Marston's are doing/not doing? My advice is to sit tight and await the H1 results in May.
This seems to be heading closer to 20p, wonder if we'll ever see 30p again. Terrible..
Macq -thanks for the heads up on the new Chairman I thought (per the Comp web we had this?)
Justin Platt
Chief Executive Officer
Justin was appointed to the Board with effect from 10 January 2024.
He has over 30 years’ experience in hospitality and consumer-facing businesses, having spent the last 12 years at Merlin Entertainments most recently as Chief Strategy Officer and prior to that, in a variety of operational leadership roles.
Justin’s combination of operational and strategic experience in multi-site leisure businesses equips him to lead Marston’s through the next phase of its development.
However watch out for Dad and son who are stuck in the Temple of Doom! Wicked beer there to be honest!
@macq
Superdischarger does love to waffle, best to leave him be, not the sharpest chisel in the box imho...
The departing chairman (william rucker) has departed 6 months ago,the new chairman (justin platt)was installed on 10 january 2024 so he will have only been at the helm and making decisions for 5 months before any updates in may,
Should tell us how at home sales went from the Brewery, particularly last Christmas sales which should be up and ready.
Also it would be good to see how the head hunting is going to replace the departing chairman. Perhaps the tie up with Carlsberg will become a closer one? Not long to wait for inhouse news or from the Board as to see if we have any other interested parties who feel that can take the Company further forward.
Rights issues are, mainly used to fund acquistions, provide for future growth, reduce debt. As stated earlier competitors chose to raise 3 years ago. With the exception of Whitbread, the others reduced debt. Marstons, under the control of Ralph Findlay, did not, and now for a variety of reasons the company, along with many in the hospitality sector, is suffering badly (SP). This may attract the "bottom fishers" ( here today gone tomorrow merchants), but committed investors are caught in a dilemma. Sell and move on or hold on in the hope the new Management will come forward with an innovative strategy. The Jury is out and time is running out.
In so far as Inflation being helpful, there are several factors to consider that will affect the outcome for Service sector providers. Inputs increase ( staffing costs, utility costs, Local Taxes, wholesale food costs, buildings maintenance etc).
Bars and restruants can increase prices however judging by the failure of other groups and individual traders, that can lead to customer resistance. The trick for any successful customer based business is to control costs, maintain margins and grow foot fall/output. In the current climate this is easier said than done!
Why do you feel there is a need for a rights issue? I believer not as inflation will erode debt and grow sales. Just like a mortgage expensive at first but as you earn more becomes less of a burden. Timescale is years not months or days as some expect
Marston Equity value is far more than its debt and they have been reducing their debt with sales profits increasing. The chairman made an inference to the fact that they could increase prices if they wanted to, as the sort of punter now visiting is buying the more expensive beers/wines, etc. even though they are a pub business.
He also made reference to the fact if other Pub groups fail then there will be less competition in the sector.
I see the key here is the Sales figures and we should get updated figures soon in May, where I am expecting the Brewery to also contribute and we might actually see their latest including Christmas sales from retail outlets (which I have not yet seen). GLA
At the current SP a Rights will be difficult to complete, apart from which Covenants in place with Funders, will be considered..
Mars missed the opportunity to raise funds 3 years ago when the SP was around 100p. Sector competitors, M&B, Whitbread and Spoons did raise in 2021 and are now in a healthier financial state.
But after a rights issue
Macq their overall debt is more than £3billion, which they have been attempting to re-finance since February. Another example how Debt can cripple a company that borrowed for rapid expansion when rates were historically low. It will be interesting to see if Stonegate does survive in it's present form. The words coming out seem to be preparing shareholders for the worst case scenario.
How the parlous state of Stonegate affects suppliers, remains to be seen.
I do not feel Debenhams and did not feel they were ahead of the game. Marston have been installing 100's of Vehicle electrical charging points in their car parks, and have been doing this for a while. I spoke to one of the contractors who have been installing them the other day, and he said he has been installing 100's for Marston's and he also said what a great Company this was too, and he felt each establishment was well run. They are hardly going to fold with what he has seen- his words not mine! We will have an update very soon and no doubt will be more positive based on the fact the new CEO has been buying a large number of shares. Sometimes one has to be patient, warmer weather here soon too.
You misunderstood my comment - I didnt mean well known companies, I meant where all the good information is already out there where everything is known and analysed. I have always done best by looking deeper rather than following the herd.
Looks like the stonegate company is in trouble with more debt(2billion) than marstons,stonegate is one of the big customers martons supply their beer to,its got to affect them eventually,
got to admit that i wish this would have gained sooner then it has, and can see why some people lose faith, but the difference between nav and market value is to big to ignore, the debt will reduce and inflation has already helped out big time and will flow into results more this year then last, changes to opening hours will help with staff wage inflation; biggest issue i see with marstons is the lack of regular announcements to get the wider market interested, and see what is really happening sooner; so for me until there is an other announcement we will be stuck in limbo and re rate is a bit away, but will come. my money is on jan 2025 will be around 50p (no science or fancy graphs just my opinion) and the gains for newest investors like me we be 2x maybe even 3x don’t really see how the management can **** this up in the long run. as takeover could well be in the cards, biggest fear is new share issue but don’t see this happening any time soon and even if they did; the last one did not end up bad before the nightmare of covid hit. just see more upside then down side, come on bod a nice bit of insider trading or an announcement or 2 might help the shareholders out. but yes different set of circumstances to debenhams and operating in a much slower rate of change sector where given the size and financial firepower they will survive, also ni reduction, large % state pension increase, summer coming gas bills failing will all result in more money in the pocket to spend in the tills. am i delusional, not sure but time will tell and for 200% increase i will happily wait 8 years. but once this hits 70p there is a new camper van coming my way
Since when is going to pub becoming of fashion by youngsters.. the issue is more so the cost of drinking? MARS is a very high risk stock, but there is still some upside with the amount of assets they own. I would like to think they can get back to nearer the £1, but I do feel there will need to be a lot of help for this sector by the government.
Sam..... your inclination has a lot of substance. The problem is an Asset Breaker will have studied the JV with Carlsberg and the onerous conditions applied to Pub retentions.
Preliminary results to Sept 23 quoted a NAV of £1.01
Cue...It's all rubbish, don't believe it, the sky is falling, the debt mountain, etc etc.
For my part. I don't know if it's £1.01 or not, but I am inclined to feel it is considerably more than 27p.
So I am a buyer. Offloaded a bit more SHEL today and bought more MARS.
What’s your source for such a very high figure - a pre-Covid report?
What is there to worry about here, unless you are shorting it.
Adnams in Suffolk are in trouble. Perhaps Marstons could save them like they did Brains.Lucky Greene King shareholders that sold out at the right time.
I find it odd for someone to say that you will never get rich buying shares in “well known” companies , when using there own example of Tesla, if you had bought in 2020 and even with the recent large dip in the SP, you would still be around 400% up!…let’s compare that to MARS, where you would now be around 50% down for the same period, with a mountain of debt not being repaid and pubs and drinking going out of fashion big time, especially by the younger generation of today. AGM’s I find do offer very good Lip service and I have heard CEO’s lie through their teeth on other shares saying “all is going well, although we are suffering some “ macroeconomic headwinds” (is a favourite line to “deflect the real truth) ,I’m sure you have all heard this spiel before) only for months or a year later you start to learn the real truth and the debt is not being repaid and the company really starts to suffer. I truly believed MARS could turn things around, but after recent updates by other large pub chains, I have changed my sentiment and for the life of me cannot see how this company is going to “come good” without a MAJOR Change in fortunes….and if JDW and others can’t currently make it work with little debt and run very efficiently, then. Sadly MARS have little chance of turning things around dramatically and paying off some of the mountain of debt they carry, whilst also needing to report large increases in profits to allow this to happen…I somehow now don't think so Pedro!