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Hello Rastuss - That's the point, I don't think the LMI Board have a good handle on their financial situation. The problem is far as I see it is that LMI have been strangled by PIC whom own 30% of LMI. I think that the Board have acted as they are the only shareholder and that they call the shots behind the scene imho. They were previously constrained by the banks with regards to the banking covenants. Although LMI have the streaming deal they have no bank loans. SGL however have a much larger streaming deal and have large bank borrowings. The Board have been inefficient with regards to seeking alternative financing. Their plan has been to go cap in hand to shareholders but they can't now because of PIC holding 30%. PIC can't underwrite as they would then have to bid for the whole company which they don't want to do.
It is highly unlikely that the mining license will be taken away. The current situation is not too dissimilar to Brexit with regards to the Board wanting the deal to go through and painting a bleak picture. It seems rather ironic that the Board decided to carry on mining and not making retrenchments years ago when it was necessary and then to reverse this decision when PGMs are on the rise. Unfortunately the LMI Board are about as much use as British politicians. My trust and faith in both has diminished to oblivion... When pt rises LMI will once again have its day and I personally think that it is not too far away....
Sure SBGL can waive conditions if they wish, so do not think High Court ruling necessary and suspension risk low in my view.
BREXIT far more dramatic and worrying but have common traits!
Jabba knows he needs to develop have good relationships with unions to drive business forward. The relationship should be one of co-operation, providing mutual benefits for all stakeholders, so cannot see Jabba playing dirty he needs politicians and they need investment in mining to maximise the extensive mineral resources in South Africa. Uncle Joe maybe on the ropes in round 1 but sure in round 2 he will come out fighting!
Uncle Joe is going for political martyrdom! Think strike still protected until verification process completed, not heard how this has progressed? SBGL will do nothing to inflame the situation until after election I suspect. Hopefully court will reject AMCU appeal against takeover quickly we will see. Cannot see NW court suspending licence but again we need to wait and see but think LMI's revised SLP will sort that out as the issue will be mitigated!
1.Yes vote
2. Bet on LMI going it alone
Regards
Investec increases holdings to over 6.1 million shares. Any idea as to what could be at play
Pd has dropped a couple of hundred points in the last few days but was anticipated as it has risen strongly during the last year. SGL is more prone to the movements of pd due to the Stillwater operation.
Mark Cutifani from Anglo American was bullish on pt saying 'it will come roaring back' at the FT commodities global summit yesterday. Like I have said before I don't think that we are too far away from this happening. LMI need a new Board though because they would probably require pt to be $3000 to be able to make a profit...
Or if they up the offer to a cash offer or cash and SGL stock
Ill be voting NO if if gets to a vote
LMI have "borrowed" $243m (streaming deal and BTT project) they have sold assets for circa $30m they have warned that next quarter figures likely to be poor like Q1 this means they are probably marginally profitable at best. Whilst not disagreeing that the PD price and weak rand have helped otherwise they would be in deep trouble. Agree bid is a steal for SBGL but its the only deal on offer for stakeholders to ensure future investment and to protect jobs. The alternative is not good longer term unless the PT price increases significantly on a sustainable basis otherwise LMI will stagger into business rescue along with other high cost producers. On that basis I think most institutional investors will vote for deal as less risky albeit not without risk as SBGL has issues as pointed out by other posters. The next SBGL update may swing these holders one way or another as sure they will be reviewing position as you guys are.
Been busy again... I wonder what's behind their recent purchases.
This is just one big setup imho. It's hard to read an article on LMI with no mention of Marikana. Virtually every analyst has been negative and given ridiculous targets. The banks have been harsh. The govt treats LMI like the dept of social care and the unions are unrealistic. The Board have done sweet FA and have eroded billions... They have no backbone and should go. I certainly won't be voting for this joke of an offer...
Anyone for holders? Ruffer lol
The article highlights the decline of the price of pt however it seems to neglect the huge increase of pd which represents about 25% of production. I agree that a decent cash offer is warranted. So many positives have happened for LMI since the announcement of the takeover. Remember - No banking covenants, weaker ZAR, higher bp price... This deal is like the Board. One big joke....
http://www.lse.co.uk/sharecast-news-article.asp?ArticleCode=28806428&ArticleHeadline=Lonmin_paints_bleak_picture_as_it_calls_on_shareholders_to_back_takeover
SAY NO TO!! £2-3 cash offer no debt ridden SGL stock please!
Buy 57mill Rand or £3 million LMI
No shortage of oil at the moment after a period of massive investment by the global oil industry.
Hence there should be money available for new mining projects, logically speaking.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-does-wall-street-love-234600910.html
Yes I agree Ta - Its SGL buying itself out of trouble. Froneman probably knew his gold assets were in dire straits. The offer for LMI holders is poor, lets face it even if he has to pay £2 he is getting a bargain. The LMI board have acted like headless chickens, instead of saying how bad things are they should grow a pair and be positive and get the results they should be getting. If they can't they should do the honourable thing and make way for people who can. They have eroded billions and should be ashamed but no they take the piss and reward themselves with more shares. Shameful...
See the AGM statement i posted that was voted down 100NO...shareholder revolt against this under-priced deal? SGL need to do a RI and offer 2-3£ per share what was the last TNW $675 mill? current MC $200 mill ish?
Awful deal needs stopped now SGL even with SW cant make a profit! they need LMI more than LMI need them imv!
LMI maybe the smart ones here and using SGL as a call option lol
12030 12040 12050 12060 12070 12080 12090
Bit weird imo
Lmi sp possibly pricing in a no deal scenario as per the ruffer strategy of selling Sibanye and buying LMI...exor are still heavily invested in both companies
The Board acknowledges the overwhelming vote against resolution 2 in relation to approval of the remuneration report. As reported in the 2018 remuneration report, in the event that the transaction with Sibanye-Stillwater does not for any reason complete and Lonmin remains a listed company as a result, the Board has committed to undertake a holistic review of pay arrangements to ensure alignment with the Group's evolving strategic priorities and we will engage with our major shareholders regarding any such proposals.
Whilst weak rand and higher PGM basket price wil benefit LMI profitability the costs assocaited with streaming deal and BTT financing deal will impact profits! The latest round of wage negotiations are starting shortly which hopfully will result in modest pay but suspect not as Uncle Joe will try and extract all he can, do not think they will strike as elections should be done and dusted and he may not have as solid support as he thinks. Strike would also be very bad for LMI but you never know! How profitable LMI is still depends on reducing COP not just containing costs as they are a high cost producer compared to many peers! The SBGL results will be also be very interesting in determining the final LMI deal value assuming deal goes ahead.
It wouldn't surprise me if the next results aren't that great as the powers that be are desperate to get this deal done. The Board have pinned their colours to the mast and is plain to see that they want this deal to go through. I wished they were so candid when they went cap in hand to shareholders with regards to the rights issues. I will not be voting in favour of the takeover and I will be voting against everything this Board propose as their record is absolutely shocking. To think that they turned down a $10b offer as it was deemed too low and they now have the gall to recommend an offer which values the company close too £200m is an utter joke.