Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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I disagree re. NPV needing a discount. An NPV is by definition a discounted valuation at a certain hurdle rate. If a potential buyer has a lower hurdle rate, the NPV to them is in fact higher. This is specifically why in corporates strategics are typically able to pay more than sponsors given lower return requirements.
Creeping up
Everyone is talking about different values as they are making different assumptions, so no reason to disagree.
Mine is purely DMS over 4 years as per Kodal figures, others are going through flotation, increased resource etc.
Daz, to clarify there would only be an increase in value by the depreciated plant value if just sat, each piece in isolation on the premises, but joined together and operational would be a massive increase in net asset value.
It is cash until invested in the mine and nobody buys cash.
NPV is everything included all profit, so nobody will pay that value. So if you put in loads of hypothetical outcomes and came to an NPV of whatever billion, 49% of 90% of that value is ours, then the buyer would pay a fraction of that NPV price. I would imagine that during full production and everything selling, the fraction would be higher than the percentage Hainan paid of our initial NPV as there is less risk when everything is running and selling.
Therefore our net asset value should be high at this point.
What a gift these shares are still under 0.5p to buy. Spodumene still creeping up.
Fully Funded for plant to be built by November
There is more drile holes appearing all over it. From satellite images from 05/04/24
Thanks everyone for your comments.
It appears that everyone agrees that my calculations of £249,380,000 pa profit & 6.25pps are correct & my conservative assumptions are not unreasonable as they have not been challenged.
Only Elco pointed out the 49/51 ownership split of the subsidiary KMUKwhich is a private unquoted co. I have little/no knowledge of how the profit from KMUK is accounted for by Kodal but as Elco intimates it seems logical that Kodal would only get 49% of the £249,380,000 pa profit 49% = £122,196,200 , EPS = 0 .611p & p/e 5 = 3.05p ps
If someone knows on how profits from subsidiary companies are allocated/distributed I would be interested to know.
I intend to hold at least until the flotation plant is in full production as I think with the calcs & conservative assumptions made that a SP of 3p + per share is more than achieveable within 3/4 years provided we are still owners.
Long & strong wins the day of course 😊
My conservative estimate is 1p by year end and 2.5p thereafter being a buyout or ramp up to full production….. not including our Gold prospects of course 😊
Wouldn’t you need to take 49 per cent of that Celle unless I’ve mis read the calcs?
Celle
I don't agree with that higher cap. Happy to be wrong.
From the lack of response to my previous post I can only assume that either I need to go back to school or people are stunned.
I have made various asumptions -price of spod,exchange rate , p/e which I feel are conservative, but CoP & Production seem firm so a Market Cap of £1.25bn (ie a share price of 6.25pps) @ full production seems feasible ?
When it comes to buying out KMUK it's less about the what mining equipment is there and more about the MT and LOM.
If BA is aiming for 50MT next that significant increases value therefor the buy out price. Hainan could take it all then opt to wack up a number of builds all over the plot.
I believe that a price of 1.50p is reasonable, which has been my estimate for the past two years, without accounting for the 40% increase in reserves. Therefore, a price of 2.10 is not excessive considering our current situation, and this is without taking into account the value of gold.
With a mining rig due on site that is a standard module. Mining now the service construction road is in place. With the in depth drilling and fully funded with a JV from a thirsty lithium 100% take off agreement. Judging on EV adoption and China being the market leader. It looks like Kodal could become a valuable investment.
I know I like big numbers so lets take a look. possibly unrealistic but who knows as the figures appear to stack up. So unless we are taken out b4 I have taken a punt at dreaming of what Kodal maybe worth after stage 2 flotation.
370000 tpa @ £1190 per ton ($1500 @ xrate 1.26)
Inclusive COP -£516 per ton ($650)
Profit £674 per ton ($850)
370000 x £674= £249,380,000 Profit pa.
£249,380,000 : 20Bn shares = 1.2469p ps
Undemanding p/e of 5 = 6.2345p ps
This would mean that Kodal would have a Market Cap of £1,246,900,000.
Either my figures a wrong or very wrong or I will have to go and lay myself down for a considerable period of time !!!
Realistic pricing is the NPV for 4 years only of operation is 420m dollars as per the presentation excluding gold and excluding the resource upgrade.
Once the plant is on site and operational the capital value changes.
However Kodal s target is for a 50 million tonne upgrade to the resource and in the last q&a he confirmed it was on target.
A 3 fold increase in resource (as an example) equates to more than a three fold increase in NPV as it would not require additional infrastructure - no additional capital cost.
In BA latest interview he also says the money in KMUK is also to beging the phase 2 construction. It's coming sooner rather than later.
And yet the companies still valued at under £90m....... with close on that in the bank 😁
Sorry that should say
3,700,000 tonnes over 10 years…
So a very basic calculation from when phase 2 is up and running…
Total capacity 370,000 tonnes per annum
Mine life 10-15 years
Let’s say a conservative mine life of 10 years
3,700,000 million tonnes over 10 years
Multiple that by a conservative $1000 per tonne spod price
Equates to $3,700,000,000 over 10 years
Sounds amazing to me… also we still have our other assets/gold on top of all of this!
This is going to be BIG!!
Good luck all!
Burnley88, he is just stating some thoughts and opinions, dont read too much into it.
Surin, have you been on the drink again?
surin you are a *******
...oh, of course KOD could sell their holding in KMUK in the current negotiations with Hainan for 100% off-take...lets see..
Difficult to tell, since KOD price will be dependent on a) KMUK performance b) value of remaining discoveries at Bougouni c)funds from Leo Lithium d) deal with Hainan for off-take. e) value of other assets in Mali and Cote Ivoire.
So Kod could have $2m from Leo Lithium/Ganfeng (and smelter royalty), plus a sum from Hainan for the off-take agreement currently being negotiated with Hainan...In a `fair/equitable world) an equitable payment to KOD from Hainan would be 49% of $14m...just under $7m.
In the medium to long term a lot depends on whether KOD benefits from KMUK production, lithium price etc or is bought out (Makes sense for Hainan to buy out KOD's share of KMUK).
I can see Suay Chin selling their holding if the need to raise capital. That, to me, would be a buying opportunity.
Finally, there is sovereign risk, but I can't see `Chinese Interests' being compromised in Mali (nor in most of the rest of Africa).