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Jersey Oil&gas Share Chat (JOG)



Share Price: 67.00Bid: 66.00Ask: 68.00Change: -0.50 (-0.74%)Faller - Jersey Oil&gas
Spread: 2.00Spread as %: 3.03%Open: 67.50High: 67.50Low: 67.00Yesterday’s Close: 67.50


Share Discussion for Jersey Oil&gas




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dickupham
Posts: 1,197
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:73.00
RE: A book for Easter
21 Apr '19
Chapter 3

The oil hasn’t gone away. Nor has the vision for JOG’s future outlined by its directors, who imv are people of considerable ability and unquestioned commitment and integrity. The story about Longreach which you disgracefully posted yesterday is utter nonsense btw, Woolfson – a minority is not always wrong – try doing a bit of research into the facts before shouting your mouth off. Please provide a link about the company now being owned by the Moroccan government No, I didn’t think you would.

JOG’s directors’ ambition and commitment remain undiminished despite the blow they and we as fellow shareholders have suffered. They are not infallible. Nor are they likely to be full of money to buy gazillions of shares. It is possible that what has happened recently to JOG will strengthen both JOG’s directors and its shareholders in the longer term; strange things can happen.. We all learn something new every day and should strive to benefit from it. I, for instance, have leaned humility and consideration for others, particularly if they’re dopey beyond measure (take a bow, wolf, Herron, Banjo etc). Since when did a 6% holding get a seat on the Board, whoever said it, btw??

It seems likely to me that more oil will be found idc (maybe to the north and east of the first drill location and/or deeper) which will add to whatever Verbier can now safely be estimated to hold (more than 25MMboe but we don’t know how much more). We aren’t likely to find out either, for the time being at least. Why would JOG put info into the public domain what other oilcos interested in the 31st Supplementary Round Licences (Greater Buchan) might use to their advantage and JOG’s disadvantage?

I won't talk about Cortina and whatever else the new data shows when it’s received in June.

Not much is likely to happen (drill-wise, although there will probably be plenty of news) in the next 12 months, so why not put that cash to good use in the meantime? The share price needs a boost and more stability is needed - that much is now abundantly clear. It’s looking increasingly likely that more cash will be needed next year to fund future drills if the final seismic data supports it when it has been fully studied and married in with data from the appraisal drill. RBL funding is probably available so something worthwhile looks to be affordable if properly structured, assuming buying profitable production is still on the agenda and there are suitable opportunities.

I’ve put £5 ew on JOG buying a producing asset before the end of the year. Start the clock…………

Warning; make all your own decisions; carry out all your own research. none of what I write should EVER be taken as investment advice. anything stated as a fact is only ever an opinion. only invest what you can afford to lose. I haven’t got x-ray eyes; wrap up warm when there’s a northerly wind. Have I missed anything?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=cp7_u0kcQRo
 
dickupham
Posts: 1,197
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:73.00
RE: A book for Easter
21 Apr '19
Chapter 2

Seismic data is gathered by passing sound waves through rock and other formations thousands of feet below the seabed. It has been used extensively to good effect in the oil & gas industry for decades and technical advances have resulted in it being far more accurate today than it has ever been. But it is still far from perfect at pinpointing exactly where oil is present and there will always be anomalies.

It might not be the right analogy but ultrasound is also used extensively in medicine (usually in diagnosis). I have a good deal of experience in the subject which is why I raise it. Ultrasound gives a good indication of what might be going on an inch or so below a patient’s skin, but more precise diagnosis is usually provided by a follow-up CT or MRI scan and sometimes an endoscopy, so that what is there can actually be seen. The point is that if ultrasound can’t be relied on to show accurately what’s an inch or so below someone’s skin, how can it be relied on it to map out precise sand and rock formations and whether they contain oil,12.000 ft below the seabed? Other information – presumably much gained through experience - is generally factored in and the precise interpretation of all the data must play a big part. It is a hugely complex subject made to sound like a walk in the park by some posters on here who, to me, are being grossly unfair.

What now seems clear is that JOG’s directors should have put more caveats in place to lower shareholders’ expectations about the appraisal drill, but I doubt their – or more importantly Equinor’s - technical evaluations in advance were deficient. I regarded the drill as a penalty kick, which was a mistake. I therefore wouldn’t disagree with anyone who felt let down by the degree of confidence exhibited by JOG in advance of the drill.

So, taking the emotion out of it, what has changed apart from the share price (which suggests JOG is now worth nothing except its cash – which is ignoring the facts). The share price is of course driven by the “don’t knows”, multiplied by Schroders and divided by the Welsh ex sheep farmer of questionable moral integrity, certainly when he was with Evolution Group. He’s the last thing JOG needs imv, if he intends to be ‘active’. He won’t get far if he starts trying to push his weight around like Guillenhammar did in TRAP.

I have added to my JOG holding, The crucial news went above the empty heads of the NKOTB without them even noticing – Equinor remains fully committed to Licence P2170. Without that news JOG would have been seriously challenged. As it is, things are in an orderly state and normal business can continue, even if there is ground to make up.

tbc
dickupham
Posts: 1,197
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:73.00
A book for Easter
21 Apr '19
Chapter 1

There has been nonsense of Olympic proportions spouted on here of late by the NKOTB (and some of the old ones too). Most seem to have been missing when the brain cells were handed out (GB, you’ve got company at last - didn’t think there was another like you in the civilised world; turns out there are quite a few). All of a sudden there’s been a deluge of utter c**p posted and it’s got out of control. Having had a break, I feel I should post something sensible for balanced consideration by the more lucid out there. For the record, I’ll be surprised if the illiterates respond with anything except insults. These will be welcome, because I'd be worried if the relevant people agreed with me on anything at all.

Unquantifiable “blame” is being laid on JOG’s directors – the level of vitriol is alarming: “the BoD needs a good shake up: make them work for nothing; compulsorily sell their shares and put the money into the company”. What utter tripe. What is it that you lot do for a living that you’ve got to the age you have, don’t understand the first thing about anything, yet mouth off at about 200 decibels what is completely and utterly wrong?

JOG owns 18% of Licence P2170 (that’s the licence the Verbier field is part of in case you don’t know). Equinor is the operator and the way the partnership (Eq 70%; CIECO 12%; JOG 18%) works is that a simple majority decides what should happen and when. Don’t know why, but I reckon Equinor calls the shots and it’s unlikely, on a technical issue at least, the 2 junior partners would seriously challenge Equinor's decision on where, for instance, an appraisal well should be drilled. Equinor owns 70% and paid the full cost of the first drill ffs, subject to the modest sidetrack costs being shared 70:18:12.

Why “blame” JOG’s team for the appraisal well failing to find more oil? Why blame anyone? The well was drilled where the partnership thought it best to drill it. We don’t know the facts and even if we did we aren't petroleum geologists (or whatever the term is). I note no-one has suggested Equinor’s directors should be fined or sacked. It’s oil and **** sometimes happens. No-one was expecting it, but it did. Oil exploration and development is a notoriously risky business to invest in. The rewards can be high but it is pathetic to hit out irrationally at people who don’t deserve it because you won’t be getting rich after all. The best way to become a millionaire is to start as a billionaire and invest in oil & gas explorers.

tbc




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