Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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But for some it has nonetheless burst the bubble created by Labour’s overtures to win over investors. As one oil and gas executive put it:
Labour has been hawking itself around the City saying we are on the side of business and we want you to invest in the UK — then a few days later they are U-turning.
It’s a bad day for investors in the UK . . . Everything I’ve heard since Friday suggests they are rushing to the exit.
The sector’s backlash against higher taxes is to be expected, yet there is a lot at stake. The UK still gets about 75 per cent of its energy from oil and gas, and efforts to move towards cleaner energy are proving difficult and slow.
Transactions heating up since late last week because of the end of tax year. Presume will continue this whole week.
I don't believe Neo has committed much capex yet other than the success fee to JOG and operating costs of the project team. I do believe we will see movement on that soon.
I thought Neo has awarded the engineering work to a company? Or that’s just a study or conceptual work? It’s nothing to do with the physical side of the project? That will be later after fid? Too many dumb questions I know.
Tis an interesting question.
One thing I don't understand, is why someone would pay cash out of retained profits for oil revs, and not simply get a massive tax deduction on CAPEX to say, get incremental oil revs from existing assets. Obviously there is an answer to this and I'm happy to be sh@t on by some of the more experienced posters on this board. It's not enough to be right, it's that others must fail etc.
Another ponderance in my tiny mind is that can a contingent offer be made? Say on FID, or even first oil? Is that a thing in M&A? Take out the management team and essentially you have a financial derivate, so why not? Might be nice to snap off the target now when atmospherics are rubbish.
One thing I'd add is that if we want to see first oil Q4 2026, we're going to need to see activity pretty sharpish. Rig contracts (or at least options) need signing, long lead time items like er, infill tube thingys and errrr 'well heads' need ordering, building etc. These will likely be released by RNS and this must close the value gap? I see no risk from regulator, only a tiny risk from a partner getting cold feet - but these items would confirm that would not be true beyond all reasonable doubt.
Where is an M&A banker when you need one.
Dear Einstein, thank you for wise words to my very dumb question. All explained very nicely :-) 699p dinner on me, remember? Better than hot cross buns I promise. .
Dear onthe6, in my opinion, from a very damp forecourt, you may be conflating 2 things.
Share price might reflect some notion of the discounted value of the company’s ‘worth’- future earnings etc. (Dick would be more precise.) What a company might be prepared to offer for JOG, once FID is announced, is a very different string of sausages. FID may be the definitive step in value promotion in the JOG ‘odyssey’. Post FID, when the value can be attributed to reserves and production start-up date is less risky, if JOG lasts that long, the share price could well be north of your magic £7 and a buyer would need to pay a premium.
My fear is that a company looks at all of the runes and takes a low-ball punt pre-FID.
Not many dead bugs on the windshields in this weather…..
Hi all hope you all had a good Easter!
Just to ask for all your opinion. All brokers reckon our worth is around £7 per share and most believe takeover is fairly likely post fdp, fid.. now question is would the buyer pay £7 or half of that as they would need to make a profit? Greener? Einstein? Silly a question as it might seem but would appreciate your takes on this.
Morning Dick. I'm privileged to be the butt of your wit. ;-)
My holding might be small but that means gains are good by comparison. It also means if things go tits up like happened (more than once) before I won't have lost my shirt and the Mrs will still get fed.
My investing strategy might not have reached your levels of glory but so far it's holding it's own. I first bought JOG 7 years ago and I'm still around which is more than can be said for most of the so called 'long term investors' who have disappeared shirtless.
The way I see it there are only two ways to make a decent profit in JOG.
1, buy at the start when the price was pennies. You may have managed that trick but the rest of us are a bit late.
2. Buy when it is cheap and sell when it is expensive.
How to define cheap is the trick here and rightly or wrongly I've decided 150 is a good price.
How to define expensive is the next trick which I still have to figure out but the last 5 years would suggest anything over 250
Why am I bothering to mention any of this?
Unlike most posters here I am not convinced JOG will make me rich, history would suggest the opposite is more likely so perhaps these words might act as a warning to someone out there thinking of pouring all their life savings into one basket.
Interesting that Orcadian got their farm out away this morning, 350k paid and operator ship transferred in spite of Lab shenanigans.
"The agreement with equity partner Neo Energy stipulates that production from the North Sea vessel will cease "on or around" March 31, 2024" https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/story/dana-petroleum-announces-end-of-production-for-western-isles-fpso Western Isles is due to starts its return for refit any time now, could be a good indication things are still on schedule or not when it does https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9736171
Some clarity of Labour stance on the investment allowance, and some positive news on rig contract options or well-heads getting built will turn this story around.
Its interesting that Zeus put out a Note when there was no " Event " to justify it - they clearly thought an SP so far below their evaluation needed a comment.
Is it too much to hope that others ( e.g. Simon Thompson of IC) who have made similar SP predictions will feel a need to comment on the low SP? - it might ignite a big rally.
Good morning Dick. All I know is that 150 is £1 10 shilling in old money and I can remember filing up a client’s Armstrong Super Sidely Saphire (it was 2-tone blue) with 5 star , fully leaded and a couple of shots of Reddex . I’d check the Tyres and dip the dipstick, polish the windscreen, doff me cap to his missis (she was some lady) and he out give me the change out 30 bob as a tip.
As to JOG’s shares being worth the same as 12 gallons ( remember them?) of 5* , that’s a difficult calculation. JOG has a 20% ( equals a fifth for the numerically challenged- a bit less than a quarter) of 100 million barrel oil field which is scheduled to start producing at 35000 barrels per day in a couple of years time . ( That’s a lot of tank fulls of petrol, once refined even for my old client’s Armstrong Sidely) Current oil price $85 . There’s gotta be some money to be made even if/ when a British ‘Government’ of whatever political hue taxes it absurdly to pay for Benefits etc.
I have no idea what any other recent deals in NS oil fields might mean. I thought the Italians used olive oil and that Delek had something to do with Dr Who.
Time to eat a hot cross bun
Alibro - I can't tell you how relieved I am (no doubt others are too) to constantly to learn you've made enough out of your day-trading to take the missus down the chippie for an XL portion of haddock and chips (with mushy peas). She's one lucky lady.
Have you considered writing a book on your investment techniques? I think you could be onto a winner. Might I suggest a title that catches the eye of aspiring Warren Buffetts? It's important to make an immediate impact, so here goes: "Buy 'em low and sell 'em high - the secrets of investing in the fast lane".
Don't be too critical - it's a first effort and could probably be improved.
I'd be interested in your views on Ithaca's (Delek's) plans to buy ENI's UKCS assets (largely comprising Neptune Energy's NS interests). I understand Delek started life in 1951 as the Israel Fuel Corporation Ltd in 1951. Further reading indicates Delek (via a subsidiary) is Israel's biggest forecourt operator.
Yours too, Einbert, as it's your area of expertise. Do you reckon Delek offers costly perks - eg topless free windscreen wash and shine, which would make it less profitable? I asked someone else earlier about Delek and they said it's involved with downstream activities. Sounds a bit fishy to me. Downstream of what? The "river"? Not THE river surely? Did you know Delek only put up 10.3% of its holding in ITH in the recent IPO. It banked all the proceeds. After buying Ithaca in 2017, Delek bought all Chevron's UKCS interests: https://oeuk.org.uk/oguk-welcomes-news-of-chevron-acquisition/
What's next I wonder?
I'm intrigued by your 150p theory, Alibro. What's always puzzled me is why, with BP being so much bigger than JOG, its share price is only about 3x JOG's. It's a real head-scratcher.
What day is it? I'm still a bit woozy after todays antics. I didn't realise share could go up as well as down and it shocked me. No doubt normality will soon return. The BP share price anomaly has spooked me a bit too............
For the last couple of years I've been saying 150 is a buy in or buy back or top up price. (take your pick)
It looks like at least someone agree's.
Probably the Baron’s following herd….
https://twitter.com/baroninvestment/status/1773268538570023369
It's not often I buy the day before a rebound. OK it's only 8% but I'll take it.
With my purchase yesterday I'm back in black and here's hoping it's not a short term gain.
I said a couple of days ago that JOG was due some news that would boost the price so maybe this is the start of something.
Here's hoping
GLA
We haven't heard from any of those technical chartists for a while - I wonder what the runes say for them right now ?
I think you are correct Cyril
A 10% rise just on the back of a broker article seems a bit fanciful to me but what do I know !?!?
"...on the back of what?"
I think the OGA plan has some influence too. It looks like a bit of 'whip-cracking' from the NSTA. Does anyone see anything in it more +ve or -ve for JOG?
Potential acquirers of our company get a fully compliant project which has put effort into going with the regulatory flow rather than complaining about change (or just leaving the UKCS). I think Neo and Serica must have seen JOG and the GBA as being the way forward without any legacy non-compliant clutter.
Milario - " This time yeaterday it was down at 1.45 and 24hrs later its back up at 1.61 on the back of what!?!? "
Its got to be Zeus blowing away some of the irrationality . Their measured discussion and thoughts about future EPL and and a Labour government would have been helpful.
Leaky leaky? Soon? A happier Easter I guess. Love to all. Keep well and keep posting Dick!
This time yeaterday it was down at 1.45 and 24hrs later its back up at 1.61 on the back of what!?!?
Bonkers.