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trent, i am expecting 5.20 if the market thinks no further bidder will emerge, if it goes higher the market may anticipate another bidder. Lets hope so.
Very disappointing, I think I would prefer keep the status quo.
The market opens and see how this is viewed.
At first glance this looks like a derisory offer. The open market may take a different view.
Yip bit disappointing, won’t quite have made all my losses back hear but nearly! Had been hoping to get nearer 6.
Haha, check the RNS tab right! Well I think that's very disappointing.
I don't know but don't we have to wait to see if a formal offer is made before we find out the board's real feelings? They can't accept or reject something until then.
Not sure really. I haven’t seen any of the potential rival bidders rule themselves out yet. I would hope the trade bidders would give it a go on the basis if it goes private they won’t get a chance at anything like the current price, especially as the bid looks very credible. Not sure over £6 is likely though.
Anything is likely to come of the speculation of a takeover?
Not be outdone on the broker front HSBC raises their price target on ISAT to 4.70 from 4.20!
I'm pretty optimistic that this take over will succeed, probably with an improved offer. Those Canadian pensiin funds don't mess about. And the fact that both parties are talking is ominous.
Let's face it. None of us have a Scooby's what will happen. I see the form 8s streaming in again like last time. I think that was positioning to make the improved offer from Echostar. Here's hoping. Different bunch of brokers and funds this time though.
I ma more optimistic here about a deal . My thinking is the announcement yesterday was to flush out competing offers before they do the final negotiation with current mob. hence no statement along lines 'seriously etc'.
Cynically the ceo might see value in a future role as the key determinant for recommendation. we shall see.
Well I guess the city view a deal as unlikely given the share price, also that EchoStar won't join the fray. I didn't think it would go down like that yesterday.
I did see that Jefferies have just cut their target price to £8.90 today. Brokers seem to live in another world completely.
I can see that 'seriously undervalued' line coming out soon.
Looks like vulture in nest inviting his family back to feast on ISAT for second time, no less. Explains everything. https://news.sky.com/story/why-consortium-circling-inmarsat-may-wish-to-take-it-private-11671145
I too am unnerved that the board hasn't come out strongly saying that the offer materially underestimates the business and think that the dividend announced with the final results will be suspended if the offer is recommended.
On balance though I don't think this offer will be approved.
extrader, sorry “proposed” not declared. What confused me is that HL website states that * Dividend has not yet been paid but has been declared by Inmarsat Plc. But I do understand that approval is required at the AGM before this is set in stone.
Thanks extrader, makes sense, declared means intention to pay, however this must be approved at the AGM. I did try to find on Inmarsat website the AGM date but with no luck (as my wife would say “Man looking”). Learning all the time. Thanks again.
Hi Morbox,
You ask :
.."why is this statement within the proposal, unless there not declared yet?"
This is what ISAT said in its 7th March Final Results for 2018 :
…"A 2018 final dividend of 12 cents per share will therefore be PROPOSED to shareholders in line with the 2017 final dividend.
I.
The dividend is to be paid on 30 May 2019 to ordinary shareholders on the share register at the close of business on 23 April 2019. Shareholders will be ASKED TO APPROVE the final dividend payment at the Annual General Meeting on 1 May 2019. …"
So AIUI, divvy not yet DECLARED and, as to why the proposal "assumes no further dividends would be paid", the proposer gets to keep the cash ($ 0.12 x 463M = $ 55M) that the dividend costs and reduces correspondingly both his effective purchase cost (by about 9p) and his financing requirement (if any).
All this just my understanding, open to correction !
ATB
Can someone please explain how the UT is 495 when the share hasn’t traded below 500 all day?
I really don’t get it :(
DT
extrader, I'm with you IMO I think that EchoStar wants the company, but cannot or will not pay for it. But as my earlier post they could be part of this offer behind the scenes getting what they want from the takeover and leaving the rest to be stripped. On the point the Divs, still not clear on the part "assuming no further dividends would be paid by Inmarsat following the date of the proposal". I've spoken to a compay accountant who thinks, like me once final divs have been declared they can not be cancelled, (unless I'm missing something). If so why is this statement within the proposal, unless there not declared yet?
Hi johnpwh,
The RNS re EchoStar's indicative offer in June 18 doesn't say the mix, the Improved Proposal that was turned down as 'seriously undervaluing' ISAT was a 50/50 mix of cash and shares see :
…"Under the terms of the Improved Proposal, Inmarsat shareholders would be entitled to receive 265 pence in cash and 0.0777 new shares of EchoStar class A common stock (to be listed on NASDAQ) for each Inmarsat share, (subject to the reservations referred to below). Based on the closing price per share of EchoStar class A common stock on 5 July 2018 of US$45.45 and an exchange rate of £:US$ of 1:1.3244 on 5 July 2018, the Improved Proposal implies an equivalent value of 532 pence per Inmarsat share, valuing Inmarsat's existing issued share capital at approximately £2.45 billion. …"
EchoStar paper may be the issue : S'pedia has a 41/100 StockRank, shows a PER of 63x, a 2.5%ROC and an Altman score of 1.20 ( "EchoStar has an Altman Z1 of 1.20 indicating a serious risk of financial distress within the next 2 years")
.
HTH and ATB
Hi johnpwh,
The RNS re EchoStar's indicative offer in June 18 doesn't say the mix, the Improved Proposal that was turned down as 'seriously undervaluing' ISAT was a 50/50 mix of cash and shares see :
…"Under the terms of the Improved Proposal, Inmarsat shareholders would be entitled to receive 265 pence in cash and 0.0777 new shares of EchoStar class A common stock (to be listed on NASDAQ) for each Inmarsat share, (subject to the reservations referred to below). Based on the closing price per share of EchoStar class A common stock on 5 July 2018 of US$45.45 and an exchange rate of £:US$ of 1:1.3244 on 5 July 2018, the Improved Proposal implies an equivalent value of 532 pence per Inmarsat share, valuing Inmarsat's existing issued share capital at approximately £2.45 billion. …"
EchoStar paper may be the issue : S'pedia has a 41/100 StockRank, shows a PER of 63x, a 2.5%ROC and an Altman score of 1.20 ( "EchoStar has an Altman Z1 of 1.20 indicating a serious risk of financial distress within the next 2 years")
.
HTH and ATB
A small, $3 million line item called the Communications Services Program was a fresh addition to NASA's budget. The new program would replace the multi-billion dollar "government-owned Space Network with commercial communications services and capabilities," NASA budget said. While it's not much funding now, TMF Associates analyst Tim Farrar said it could be a new revenue stream for satellite communications companies.
"Ultimately it would involve expenditures certainly in the hundreds of millions of dollars per year," Farrar told CNBC.
Farrar believes three major telecom companies would likely benefit from the Communications Services Program: Intelsat, SES or Inmarsat.
"If someone wins a contract for a commercial replacement it would be a significant amount of money," Farrar said.
I admit I don't follow ISAT as closely as other shares, so all here are probably far more knowledgeable than me! But it does seem odd that the previous bid was so vigorously condemned by the BOD, yet this has not been despite being a matter of a few pence more. It is not as if the companys fortunes have taken a turn for the worse since the EchoStar bid - in fact the opposite seems true. Was it because the previous offer was all paper?
Who are ISAT'S main competitors? btw The Canadian Teachers outfit have very deep pockets, I would think the offer is too low and will hopefully be raised if they can stand up to the competitors - ie, they are better at what they do.