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London South East - Oil & Gas Investor Evening: Malcy, Echo, Savannah, SDX
Andrew Knott, #SAVP speaks at London South East's Oil & Gas event


Independent O&g Share Chat (IOG)



Share Price: 31.25Bid: 31.00Ask: 31.50Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Independent O&g
Spread: 0.50Spread as %: 1.61%Open: 30.75High: 31.20Low: 31.20Yesterday’s Close: 31.25


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GreatGigInTheSky
Posts: 891
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.20
RE: Brokers
Mon 15:37
Hi Aligator,

Seems like we are all waiting for the same thing.
Calm before the storm as it were.

Given your finanical background what would your opinion be on the value put on the company with funding in place to take us to first gas ?
Also as you say we will then be financially derisked which will attract more investment from those who may be more risk averse at present.
I would like to think this will add considerable value but your expert opinion and past expereince most welcome

Exciting times ahead

GG
 
aligator
Posts: 36
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.20
Brokers
Mon 15:29
Given my limited investment background, anyone got a view or views on what I perceive to be a lack of comment from the broker fraternity on IOG. Or are they, as well as we, awaiting FDP, FID and funding announcements? If I recall, the last range of target SP was ca 60-96p. Can we expect this to increase with these announcements, given the further de-risking which will have occurred?
sage
Posts: 59,333
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.20
lol
Mon 15:02
first time I`ve seen the word Ullage used outside of the licensed trade.. :)
GreatGigInTheSky
Posts: 891
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.20
RE: Blythe and Elgood Plans
Mon 15:00
Spazway,

No worries, just the broker omitted to mention first gas being from Southwark.

GG
Spazway
Posts: 52
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.20
Has some good info like this too
Mon 14:59
Honestly don't write the broker note off just because there are a few minor out of date details.

Things like this (and much more on the wider O&G backdrop for IOG), for example are not mentioned by IOG at all:

"ConocoPhillips is planning to close its Theddlethorpe Gas Terminal on the Lincolnshire
coast by the end of 2018. This terminal satisfies ~10% of the UK’s gas needs, receiving
and processing gas volumes from three offshore pipeline systems: the Lincolnshire
Offshore Gas Gathering System (LOGGS), the Caister Murdoch System (CMS) and the
Pickerill System.
Ten fields are dependent on this pipeline and will need to find alternate evacuation routes
once it is decommissioned or else be shut down. Other potential developments nearby
that would need gas transportation include Bedevere, Thorsby and Wherry. This opens up
the possibility of third-party transportation opportunities for the Thames pipeline, which
should have spare ullage throughout"

https://www.independentoilandgas.com/downloads/reports/IOG_190418.pdf
Spazway
Posts: 52
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.20
RE: Blythe and Elgood Plans
Mon 14:50
I just meant the article is different from the information we've been given by the company
Spazway
Posts: 52
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.20
GGITS
Mon 14:46
The dates have obviously changed but the broker note gives a wider sense of the history of the whole project and the financing backdrop than the most recent corporate presentation.

For example nowhere in the corporate presentation does it mention how much the developments will cost, a question with the CEO avoided in the recent interview. In the broker note they do have estimates.
GreatGigInTheSky
Posts: 891
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:31.20
RE: Blythe and Elgood Plans
Mon 14:44
Spazway,

The first gas for Blythe and Elgood is indeed Q3 2020, however first gas from Southwark is Q2 2020.
Therefore SNS first gas is expected Q2 2020 as per company RNS and presentations.

Exciting times ahead

GG
GreatGigInTheSky
Posts: 891
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:31.20
RE: Also this broker note
Mon 14:33
Spazway,

This report is well out of date regarding timings and key milestones.
You would be better reading the recent RNS announcements, interim results and the presentation on the company website for what I would say will be more accurate information.

Exciting times ahead

GG
Spazway
Posts: 52
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.20
Also this broker note
Mon 14:09
This broker note from Finncap actually talks about the "4 pillars of funding" Andrew Hockey mentioned recently in the interview with Malcolm Graham-Wood. https://www.independentoilandgas.com/downloads/reports/IOG_190418.pdf

Points to the prior success of peers using the nordic bond market for financing and much more. Have a read its the most thorough note on IOG i've been able to find. Essential reading really if you're holding this stock or looking to buy.
Spazway
Posts: 52
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.20
Nordic Bonds
Mon 14:05
Just a bit of info for those on here. Faroe did a similar raise to what we are expecting on the nordic bond market. $100m at 8% earlier this year. There is a bit of precendent. http://www.fp.fo/news/us100m-senior-unsecured-bond-listed-on-nordic-abm/
Spazway
Posts: 52
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:30.75
RE: Blythe and Elgood Plans
Sun 14:00
Click expand at the top to see the Q3 figure
Spazway
Posts: 52
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:30.75
Blythe and Elgood Plans
Sun 13:54
https://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/blythe-hub-development/

Says Q3 for first gas at Blythe, not Q2 as we have been told. Great overview of the whole development plan though.
wiseabout
Posts: 28
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:30.75
RE: all good here for those who
Fri 18:32
Hi Sage.

Can you give me the tickers of the airlines please. I will have a look.

Thanks JBS
GreatGigInTheSky
Posts: 891
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:30.75
RE: Funding
Fri 17:59
Another good steady week where we have maintained above 30p and slightly up overall this week by 0.25p
Some good solid buying this afternoon with a 32k, 50k and 68.5k trades.

This is setting us up nicely for next news flow.

Have a nice and safe weekend

Exciting times ahead

GG
GreatGigInTheSky
Posts: 891
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:30.75
RE: Funding
Fri 15:08
Hi aligator,

We are very much aligned in our thinking and expectaions of how this may roll out.
With the quite unique situation that IOG are in with the SNS Hub, I cannot see funding of any description being a problem and given the very healthy profit margin between break even and 5 year gas price estimates the project is highly investable, therefore I cannot see them having to offer bargain deals to anyone.
As you say, with the board holding in excess of 25% of the shares in issue and continuing to substitute salary for shares, they will be focussed in delivering shareholder value.
If we do see a 2 phase FID with senior and junior coming slightly ahead of the rest then we will move to a new high and the equity will just be a blip.
All IMHO of course and we will soon find out

Exciting times ahead

GG
aligator
Posts: 36
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:30.75
Funding
Fri 14:40
Hi GGiTS,

I have to say I am eager to hear the announcements on funding as I am increasingly of the view that this BoD will produce some interesting and innovative arrangements, including contractor funding - all with the view of minimising equity dilution. I have previously predicted the possible split of debt, contractor funding and equity and remain of the view that the latter could be no greater than 20% of the total, perhaps even below 10%. My optimisim is borne not just from what I think is the art of the possible in terms of funding from debt, possible up front gas payment arrangements with BP and various contractor finance arrangements, but from the fact that the BoD and senior management are all heavily invested in the company - in total some 25% of issued shares. Of course I would stress that this is my own opinion and everyone needs to do their own research.
sage
Posts: 59,333
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:30.75
all good here for those who
Fri 12:29
are patient.Great to see a British success story. For those looking for a ftse investment paying big return over say 6 months or shorter I would suggest the Airlines are now ripe for careful investment.
Remember ,"blood in the streets" I managed 39% gains on the last dip.DYOR and GL.
JH77
Posts: 1,783
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:30.75
RE: Re Interview
Fri 11:33
Thanks Ggits!
GreatGigInTheSky
Posts: 891
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:30.75
RE: Re Interview
Fri 11:31
JH77

Well done with your initial investement here and I would say you have summed up quite well.
If you look on this as a medium term investment e.g. up to 2 years, then you should not be disapointed at all.

You have got in just before a transformational time for the company

All the best

GG
JH77
Posts: 1,783
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:30.75
RE: Re Interview
Fri 11:01
Yeah...I liked it as well. I've had this company on my watch list for quite some time. I don't look on this as a "get rich quick" type of share, more as a medium term investment. It looks to me as if they haven't bitten off more than they can chew ( as it were), compared to other small cap companies in this sector, and I look at gas as an important resource for the nation. Also, I am quite happy that the share price is not volatile.So taking all this into consideration I bought a small initial tranche of 5000 shares just a little while ago and I'm quite happy to be on board....
GreatGigInTheSky
Posts: 891
Opinion:Strong Buy
Price:30.75
RE: Re Interview
Fri 10:19
Morning all,

I have watched the interview a few times now and very encouraged by the content.

My preciction as before still remains at.

FID Senior and Junior funding in place and announced around Mid November
FID equity and contractor defferment by end if November
FDP approved and in place by end of December
Harvey appraisal as they stated will be in Q1 and when the drilling contractor is announded and the Jack Up rig known, then we can find out in the public domaign if the rig is (hot) and coming directly from another operator or if it is (warm stacked) and coming from a location where it is being kept ready but with no current contract, either way, easy to track.
In general we have two major transformational events for IOG coming in the next 2 months.
Q1 2019 sees the Harvey well being drilled/tested and results known as well as flat out with manufacture and construction.

Very exiting times ahead

GG
Trustatrade
Posts: 347
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.00
RE: Re Interview
Thu 21:01
Great interview, here's hoping the equity part of the funding is done at a premium to current SP.
wiseabout
Posts: 28
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.00
RE: Re Interview
Thu 10:51
Morning Aligator.

Absolutely. To me it looks like he is in the zone, full concentration on the task ahead. Yes this is a great team who are fully invested in this with a massive percentage of shared between them.

Ducks in a row comes to mind IMO
aligator
Posts: 36
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:31.00
Re Interview
Thu 10:35
Morning JBS,
I agree with you. I thought AH's responses reflected real in-depth knowledge of the length and breadth of the company's activities. Ok, he does not look at the camera all the time but who among us can sit in front of a video camera in such a formal interview process? I am certain that Mark Routh would not have vacated the CEO role if he did not have full faith in AH. To have both these people involved, together with the exceutive and management teams now in place, gives me considerable confidence on their collective ability to deliver on their announcements.
Onwards and upwards!




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