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ASCENT RESOURCES: Gas flows mean cash flows to develop up to 15 wells


Independent O&g Share Chat (IOG)



Share Price: 18.625Bid: 18.25Ask: 19.00Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Independent O&g
Spread: 0.75Spread as %: 4.11%Open: 19.375High: 19.375Low: 18.625Yesterday’s Close: 18.625


Share Discussion for Independent O&g


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JHolder
Posts: 707
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:18.625
RE: tiny volume ,tiny drop ,both of
Fri 18:01
Terrible week for me on all my holdings, oh well you only loose if you sell (which I won’t be doing)! Have a good week end holders, I’m off for a strong drink :)
 
dinsalas32
Posts: 183
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:18.625
RE: tiny volume ,tiny drop ,both of
Fri 17:04
Terrible week for holders wanting to see a gain.

Great opportunity for cheap tops ups.

For me it's one week close to production
GreatGigInTheSky
Posts: 470
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:18.875
RE: tiny volume ,tiny drop ,both of
Fri 14:48
sage,

Would be nicer to see big volume, big rise and some excitement.
It will come.

GG
sage
Posts: 56,667
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:18.875
tiny volume ,tiny drop ,both of
Fri 14:38
little consequence.. :)
GreatGigInTheSky
Posts: 470
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:19.375
RE: hello older and wiser
Fri 09:41
Oops !!

That should have said * first gas in Q2 2019*
Maybe it was wishful thinking lol

GG
GreatGigInTheSky
Posts: 470
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:19.375
RE: hello older and wiser
Fri 09:14
Olderandwiser.

Appreciate you taking the time to compile and share your thoughts, thank you.
I am looking forward to the complete phase 1 financial details being released as this is definitely holding the share price back.
Of course, should there be dilution that has a negative initial effect then so be it, as long as the full funding is there and we progress as planned to first gas in Q2 2018.
As you say, great potential here.

I hope you become comfortable to invest soon, which will confirm to you that the full funding is in place and master plan is being implemented.

All the best

GG
sage
Posts: 56,667
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:19.375
my earlier point re dilution
Fri 08:30
at the cusp of production/phase 1 if we have a £1 shareprice or more then the part of that costing that is not deferred can be equity..I think we are all expecting the sharecount to double at some point but MR is a very resourceful man,as well as a large shareholder.
Olderandwiser
Posts: 6,900
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:19.375
RE: hello older and wiser
Fri 08:21
Hi edgar,

Compelling numbers on the face of it, I agree.

But that £90mn odd of IOG's commitment to the hub financing needs to be set against a current MC of the entire company of £18mn. It will need very very innovative financing to avoid a huge dilution to current shareholders. That's my problem with the situation here today.
edgar222
Posts: 543
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:19.25
RE: hello older and wiser
Fri 08:03
Olderandwiser

Interesting conversation and thank you.

Two bits of evidence for you. One, the management have done this before. Successfully and profitably. Two, the contractors are already signing up for deferred payment.

Looking at the Capex figures in the recent broker report (IF I am reading them correctly) IOG will have to find £98m from debt or equity to fully fund their hub. That is from total Capex of £400m. Leaving a NPV (which is after spending is taken into account) on Vulcan alone of £330m odd. Add Harvey to that.

So FWIW the evidence is compelling in my view.

Is it risk free? Of course not. Is the risk acceptable compared tot he reward? Yes.
Olderandwiser
Posts: 6,900
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:20.00
RE: hello older and wiser
Fri 07:53
Valuation of AIM O&G explorers/developers is a complex task, clearly. I am interested in those that are nearing production, or have achieved actual flowing oil/moving gas, as the revenue certainty gives the metrics a higher conviction level. This stance I have assumed after bad experiences with the likes of Xcite and Chariot Oil & Gas a few years ago.

Do you value these developers based on flowing oil, or on P2 reserves? Or on 2C resources? And what multiple to attach to each? Is there any debt funding? Or other fixed obligations before expected free cash flow? Depletion rates?

This is a work in progress for me, as I am on more familiar territory with mining cos than O&G cos, but I see a valuation of circa £1 to £1.50 per boepd of current production as achievable in today's market. That's about 60%-80% of a current year's full production at gross $60 oil.

Of course these sort of numbers can't be achieved without a full financing package being in place, to ensure deliverability rather than another manana story on AIM. Offtake agreements, deferred contractor payments, and equity issuance are all part of the cocktail of measures needed to raise the necessary funds. What i would say is that knowledge of the agreed method used brings with it a certain level of confidence in the forward looking story, and hence valuation uplift, before first oil/gas.

Where is IOG on this confidence curve? Still some way to go, with the financing uncertainty, but I'm sure management is working diligently towards solving this challenge as expeditiously as possible. The huge discount to EMV on Harvey, alone, attests to that uncertainty on the financing side right now. There is great potential here. I'm just watching from the sidelines for those nuggets of evidence that the Master Plan can be implemented. ATB.




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